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Patient readers, I had to make an important call in the midst of my normal Water Cooler writing time, so there is nothing here but bird songs and art (not a bad sort of nothing, actually). More soon! Talk amongst yourselves until then. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Gray Catbird, Bramble Hill, Highland, Virginia, United States. “In thick underbrush near the house at the start of the upper trail.”
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In Case You Might Miss…
New RCP election 2024 charts (it’s still tied), and new Covid charts.
Kamala on Oprah. Wowsers.
Boeing negotiations stall, as layoffs continue.
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Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)
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2024
Less than sixty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If there was a debate bounce, it was very small. If I were the Trump campaign, I’d be very worried about Pennsylvania. Maybe a reader from Pennsylvania can clarify. Are we looking at something like a North Philly Democrat/Bucks County Never Trumper Alliance? Once again, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — no doubt there will be another liberalgasm after Oprah — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.
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Wowsers. Two minutes that seem like two hours. Oprah looks like she’s in pain:
This might be the worst world salad ever in the political career of Kamala Harris.
The whole time you could feel Oprah wanted her to stop.
The audience looks like they’re realizing how gone Kamala is.
Her campaign won’t let her do one of these again.pic.twitter.com/ru9bvo2IEJ
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) September 20, 2024
If I weren’t in such a rush I’d get a clip with better provenance, but I’m not seeing signs of cutting, so…. If I find a better version, I’ll replace.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.
Wastewater
★ This week[1] CDC September 16
Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC September 14
★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 14
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 19:
★ National [6] CDC August 31:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 16:
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:
Travelers Data
★ Positivity[9] CDC September 2:
★ Variants[10] CDC September 2:
Deaths
★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 14:
★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 14:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down. NOTE Statewide, there is an uptick. Not in New York City, Long Island, or Mid-Hudson.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
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Manufacturing: “Machinists Report ‘No Meaningful Progress’ In Boeing Talks” [Aviation Week]. “The first two days of mediated talks between representatives from Boeing and its striking International Association of Machinists (IAM) employees offered little encouragement that the walkout will be short-lived, increasing the likelihood that near-term financial ramifications will be significant. ‘Unfortunately, mediation concluded today without reaching any resolution,’ the IAM negotiating team said in a statement late Sept. 18. ‘No meaningful progress was made during today’s talks.’ No further talks were scheduled, the statement added.”
Manufacturing: “A strike by Boeing factory workers shows no signs of ending after its first week” [Associated Press]. “The strike, which mostly involves workers at factories in the Puget Sound area of Washington state, will quickly affect Boeing’s balance sheet. The company gets much of its cash when it delivers new planes, and the strike has stopped production of 737s, 777s and 767s that Boeing was delivering at a rate of nearly one per day.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Faces Long Strike as Gig Economy Gives Workers Clout” [Bloomberg]. “[A]s workers stare down the embattled manufacturer for better pay and benefits, the 33,000 members of IAM District 751 have the full benefit of a tight labor market and gig economy that provides a quick transition into jobs that help make ends meet. That gives the union bargaining leverage, potentially frustrating Boeing’s effort to swiftly end a conflict that’s costing it an estimated $100 million each day…. Many machinists interviewed by Bloomberg News cited a strong sense of injustice over what they perceived as union-busting tactics in the wake of the 2008 strike. Among them, Boeing started a second assembly line for the 787 Dreamliner in South Carolina, eroding its Seattle manufacturing base. ‘While new CEO Kelly Ortberg has taken a more conciliatory approach, there is 16 years of history pitched against him,’ said Rob Stallard, an analyst at Vertical Research Partners, adding that ‘the gap between what the IAM union members want and what Boeing is currently offering is large.’ A controversial 2014 contract extension looms particularly large. IAM members were pressured into a long-term deal that froze their pensions, increased health care premiums and locked in modest pay increases in order to keep manufacturing of the 777X jet in the Seattle area. It’s the deal that expired on Sept. 12. ‘For 10 years, the union had no room to maneuver and lost all their leverage,’ said Leon Grunberg, a sociology professor emeritus at the University of Puget Sound. ‘That may be contributing to the sense of payback or retribution.’ Boeing can’t resort to the same playbook in these talks. It doesn’t have a new jet development program in the pipeline after five years of heavy financial losses. It also can’t shift more manufacturing to the Southeastern US, since unemployment is still hovering near record-low rates in that region.” • The whole piece is worth reading, as an exercize in FAFO by Boeing management.
Manufacturing: “Boeing angers another union by asking to include SPEEA employees in furloughs” [KING5]. “The SPEEA union unanimously rejected a request from Boeing to include their represented employees in company-wide furloughs designed to save cash during the ongoing machinists’ strike. SPEEA, the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, represents around 17,000 engineers, technical workers, pilots and other professionals in the aerospace industry employed by Boeing and their recently acquired supplier SpiritAerosystems.”
Manufacturing: “Hit by strike, Boeing flies in out-of-state janitors, applies furloughs broadly” [Seattle Times]. “[O]ne particular set of nonunion employees were surprised to learn they will be among those subject to the rolling furloughs. That’s those in Boeing’s Chief Aerospace Safety Office — responsible for the company’s implementation of Congressional legislation that raised safety standards and setting up a new companywide safety management system. Reducing the work there seems counter to the assurance new Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg made Wednesday that ‘all activities critical to our safety … will be prioritized and continue.’… The first contractors laid off this week included very experienced engineers who’d been brought back from retirement to help design fixes for problems holding up the certification of Boeing’s 777X, MAX 7 and MAX 10 airplanes. Getting those planes certified, essential to Boeing’s future, didn’t need to be affected by the strike. And one employee at the Chief Aerospace Safety Office said via email that ‘Boeing was either too sloppy and careless in its rush to get people off the payroll as fast as possible, or they were lying when they said the Safety Management System (SMS) was critical to our future.’ Boeing has been required by legislation to set up an SMS that standardizes and regulates safety and risk management across the company. The employee — who asked to remain anonymous due to Boeing’s restrictions on employees speaking to media without authorization — wrote that setting up the SMS, which has been in work since 2019, is ‘very, very far behind’ schedule. Boeing on Thursday denied this, stating, ‘Our SMS is not behind schedule, and the temporary furloughs will not affect our multi-year SMS implementation plan.’”
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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 61 Greed (previous close: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 47 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 20 at 3:05:20 PM ET.
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. Fro TH:
TH writes: “Strolling along the Alamitos bayside, we (Hubby-Don & I) stopped to admire this little family of blue Agave.”
