A rapidly declining Trump is living in a “dark fantasy” world as the Iranians close the Strait in anger at his lies. Meanwhile the MSM is beginning to break some bad news about the war.
White House insiders are struggling to deal with POTUS Trump’s increasing dementia but are so far unwilling and unable to stop Trump and his enablers from doubling down on military and economic disaster.
Robert Barnes, a long-time MAGA insider with a history of having impeccable sourcing inside the Trump administration guested on Larry Johnson’s Countercurrents and made some alarming claims.
Among other things, Barnes tells Johnson that :
Robert Barnes: (Trump’s) declining mental state started in the fall and it’s a combination of age and stress.The president’s definitely running the show and he’s running the show to a degree that has everybody else around him nervous. I was up there in January, I heard from a range of people that were describing somebody that was starting to lose it.
…
It’s more like a three-year-old or for those that have been around loved ones and you see them regress all of a sudden.
Trump’s always been unfiltered, but not like now, not, ‘Hey, maybe I’ll nuke the world tomorrow.’
Not, ‘Hey I’m going to take a pot shot at the pope.’
There’s a part of his brain that really thinks he picked the pope. I keep trying to tell people that’s legitimately what’s going through his brain but he thinks ‘Oh maybe I’ll be president of Venezuela.’
Everybody around him in the White House is nervous. It’s been said that basically everybody was told months ago, don’t share any negative information with him at all, it’ll trigger his rage.
And Susie Wildes reversed that two weeks ago when she realized that we might have the end of the world on our hand unless they start sharing negative (information). They were literally spoon feeding him two-minute videos of things blowing up.
hat’s why he’d get mad when he reads the New York Times. So, if you want to get negative information to him, you don’t go into the White House because you don’t want to deal with the temper. You leak it to the New York Times.
…
Trump will forget things from day to day. He’ll remember things that didn’t happen. Some of it he actually convinces himself is true. People around him would have to explain, no, that’s not true, but (now) they’re too scared of his temper and his rage (to do so).
…
Everybody around him is walking on eggshells in a constant basis. There are a bunch of people in the military that, were not going to go along or were talking about not going along with the order, if he did give that order, to mass exterminate the (Iranian) civilization.
…
Also his empathy is gone. (Trump’s experiencing) early onset dementia: you start to lose empathy, you start to lose memory, you start to lose temper control, your decision making ability disappears, your filter vanishes, all that’s there.
Confabulation is another symptom of dementia. And confabulation is (when) you say something that’s demonstrably false, but you believe it’s true. You genuinely you don’t have the understanding that you’re lying. And he’s doing that all the time.
…
(Trump’s) living in a more and more of a dark fantasy world of his own delusion. He imagines things all the time like he really had convinced himself (the Iranians) hadn’t hit any of our bases.
Barnes also describes Trump’s limited information diet.
Trump talks to Sean Hannity every single night (and Trump is always) watching Fox News, occasionally watches CNN, occasionally reads responses on his Truth social posts and always reads the New York Times. That’s it.
Barnes also claims most of the White House insiders are looking for the exits, including Vance who allegedly has abandoned any hopes of running for President in 2028.
Finally, Barnes alleges that Vance and others are actively trying to manage or subvert Trump’s impulses to prevent disaster. He claims the Navy is feeding Trump false information about the success of a naval blockade to keep him satisfied and prevent him from escalating the conflict or ordering impossible maneuvers.
Checking in on Trump’s Truth social posts this weekend shows nothing that contradicts Barnes’ narrative. The only post resembling a coherent or timely statement is the following about Israel:
pic.twitter.com/f7Ku716Fi9
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 19, 2026
Administration mouthpiece Axios reports on an important Situation Room meeting Trump presided over before going golfing:
President Trump convened a White House Situation Room meeting on Saturday morning to discuss the renewed crisis around the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations with Iran, according to two U.S. officials.
…
The situation room meeting was attended by Vice President Vance — who is expected to participate in the next round of negotiations with Iran — Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, according to a U.S. official.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratliffe and Joint Chiefs chairman Dan Caine also attended, the official said.
…
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office Saturday, Trump said Iran “got a little cute … they wanted to close up the Strait again,” and later added that the nation “can’t blackmail us.”
Trump said the U.S. is still talking to Iran and noted he will know by the end of the day if the parties are going to move forward with a deal.
Axios also provides plenty of hopium about the ceasefire negotiations and that the U.S. and Iran are this close to coming to terms on Iran’s complete capitulation nuclear materials.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the war news.
Iran Calls Out Trump Lies
Via The Kobeissi Letter:
(M.B. Ghalibaf), the head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, releases a statement on President Trump’s claims from Friday:
“Delivering uranium to America, the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of the American maritime siege of Iran, and zero enrichment are just a part of Trump’s April lies and fabrications.”
pic.twitter.com/GZEHztetOa
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 19, 2026
Ghalibaf’s tweets take on a new cast in light of Robert Barnes’ allegations about Trump’s mental state. I wonder how the if the Iranian leadership is operating under a similar understanding of Trump’s thinking.
Iran closes the Strait
Middle East Spectator had the statement from the IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters:
Unfortunately, the Americans, with their repeated record of breaching promises, continue to engage in piracy and banditry under the guise of a so-called blockade.
For this reason, control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state and this strategic waterway remains under the strict management and control of the armed forces.
As long as the United States does not enable the complete freedom of movement of vessels from Iran to its destination and from its destination to Iran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain strictly controlled and in its previous state.’
Notably, Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi did not update his Twitter account all day Saturday, leaving his declaration that the Strait was open online long after it had been closed.
This follows reports that the IRGC was frustrated by Aragchi’s messaging in response to Trump’s claims.
There is an unverified audio making the rounds that some have interpreted to be the IRGC calling Aragchi an idiot, but others have interpreted their statement “idiot on social media” to mean Trump.
David Miller makes some serious allegations about Aragchi (which clashes with Barnes’ version of the 10 points confusion cited above):
Araghchi has been running a parallel policy to rush through an agreement that suits the Americans while hiding the actual terms from the NSC and the Beit.
That’s what he did with the Ten Points, cooking up a lie to the NSC and the Beit that Trump had agreed to the Ten Points set by Sayyed Mujtaba. This was a very obvious lie, and should have been caught by the IRGC. He had in fact given a very different Ten Points to the Americans, which then became the basis for the Islamabad talks.
Hence some Iranian negotiators were surprised by the maximalist demands being made by the Americans in Islamabad (including financial control of the Strait, which Araghchi was ready to sign over). Araghchi and Asim Munir’s hucksterism had convinced other Iranian negotiators they were going to Islamabad to fix an agreement in which the Americans understood they had lost the war. Instead, they were met with an American delegation (encouraged by the Pakistanis) who thought they were there to take Iran’s highly enriched uranium and to permanently shut down Iran’s enrichment and all its nuclear sites, effectively killing the civilian nuclear programme and its independence.
But Araghchi’s lies could only persist for so long, and now they’ve caught up with him. Throughout the process, he has worked hard to sideline senior IRGC figures (and inexplicably, succeeded) from the talks.
The Iranians backed up their talk by firing on two ships trying to cross the Strait:
pic.twitter.com/3syxZX8c9O
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 19, 2026
NBC had more on at least one of the two ships fired on:
One of the two Indian-flagged ships that were allegedly shot at while in the Strait of Hormuz today has been identified as the Sanmar Herald.
Radio transmission audio from Tanker Trackers, a maritime intelligence company that tracks shipments, was shared with NBC News. In the audio, an individual can be heard identifying the vessel and saying that they received clearance to transit the strait.
“You gave me clearance to go! You are firing now! Let me turn back!” the individual can be heard saying.
How’s That American Blockade Going?
This good, per the local Iranian consulate on Indian shores:
New Iranian oil shipment arrives in India despite blockade.
🔹The Iranian supertanker Dorna, which was last seen in Iran just hours before the blockade, has now appeared on the AIS off the southern coast of India and is scheduled to deliver about two million barrels of crude oil… pic.twitter.com/NGs8zVyhVg
— Iran Consulate – Hyderabad (@IraninHyderabad) April 18, 2026
MSM Starts Breaking Some Bad News
A whole spate of stories came out in the American corporate media that I’m sure come as no surprise to Naked Capitalism readers, but might be a shock to the more credulous who’ve been believing Trump and Greasy Pete Hegseth.
There’s this from Bloomberg “Iran Has Limited the Impact of US Strikes, Intelligence Says” Archived:
Iran’s pre-war planning helped mitigate the impact of US-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal and leadership, according to Western military intelligence assessments.
The country retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails, with solid reserves of long-range missiles and thousands of drones in its armory.
Iran’s military planning and “mosaic” defense strategy have allowed it to minimize disruption to its command structures and retain its military capabilities, despite sustaining massive damage to its infrastructure.
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(Iran) was able to minimize disruption to its command structures when they were targeted in the first days of the war, the people said.
It also appears that Iran retains solid reserves of long-range missiles, according to assessments provided by European and Gulf officials. It still has thousands of drones in its armory, the people added.
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Iran has dispersed its missile launchers and drone infrastructure across the country and also shifts launchers around to different sites, making it harder for the US to quickly eliminate them.
As Simplicius commented, “It doesn’t make it harder to “quickly eliminate them”. It makes it impossible to “eliminate” them at all. And since the time the US stopped eliminating any of them weeks ago, Iran has likely already built dozens of new ones, and is building more as we speak.”
The Wall Street Journal points out that the Iranian regime has changed…for the worse (archived):
The U.S. and Israel launched the war with the hope that killing top Iranian officials—starting with Mojtaba’s father, Ali Khamenei—would create the conditions for regime change or at least the emergence of leaders more willing to bend to America and Israel’s interests. In an address to the nation one month into the war, President Trump called the new leadership “more reasonable.”
Instead, the void is being filled by radical new leaders who have shown little interest in political compromise at home or abroad.
The WSJ lards up their telling with plenty of scare stories about brutal Iranian domestic crackdowns, Sunni radicals awaiting the messiah, and “regime supporters” being “deployed on the streets” but, you know, they’re working for Rupert Murdoch which is probably why their admission that Trump’s regime change failed is coming about 48 days late.
The NYT admits Iran still has plenty of ordnance left:
U.S. intelligence and military estimates vary, but multiple officials said that Iran has about 40 percent of its prewar arsenal of drones. Those drones have proved to be a powerful deterrent. While they are easily shot down by American warships, commercial tankers have few defenses.
Iran also has ample supplies of missiles and missile launchers. At the time of the cease-fire, Iran had access to about half its missile launchers. In the days that immediately followed, it dug out about 100 systems that had been buried inside caves and bunkers, bringing its stockpile of launchers back up to about 60 percent of its prewar level.
Iran is also digging out its supply of missiles, similarly buried in rubble from American attacks on its bunkers and depots. When that work is done, Iran could reclaim as much as 70 percent of its prewar arsenal, according to some American estimates.
Officials note that the counts of Iran’s weapon stocks are not precise.
I left that last sentence in there for comedy relief.
In a separate piece, the NYT admits that “Iran’s ‘Mosquito Fleet’ Remains a Potent Threat in the Strait of Hormuz“.
Note how they reinforce Trump’s claims about destroying Iran’s navy up front:
Iranian warships sunk by U.S. and Israeli attacks litter naval harbors along the Persian Gulf coast, but what is sometimes called a “mosquito fleet” lurks in the shadows.
It is a flotilla of small, fast, agile boats designed to harass shipping, and it forms the heart of the naval forces deployed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a force separate from Iran’s regular navy.
These boats, and especially the missiles and drones that the Guards navy can launch from them, or from camouflaged sites onshore, have been the main threat stymying shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The I.R.G.C. navy works more like a guerrilla force at sea,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on the Guards and a political science professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.
“It is focused on asymmetrical warfare, especially in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. “So instead of relying on big warships and classic naval battles, it depends on hit-and-run attacks.”
The NY Times just can’t stop and adds another piece on “How Iran’s Cheap, Low-Tech Drones Have Cost the U.S.“:
(Iran) has proven itself to be a surprisingly capable adversary against the United States. In addition to its willingness to go on the offensive, Iran has forced the U.S. and its regional allies to confront the rise of cheap drones on the battlefield.
Iranian drones, made with commercial-grade technology, cost roughly $35,000 to produce. That is a fraction of the cost of the high-tech military interceptors sometimes used to shoot them down.
…
In just the first six days, the U.S. spent $11.3 billion on the war with Iran. The White House and Pentagon have not provided updated estimates, but the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank, estimated in early April that the U.S. had spent approximately between $25 and $35 billion on the war, with interceptors driving much of the cost. Many missile defense experts also fear interceptor stockpiles are now running dangerously low.
In news that the sanguine and confident Mr. Market will be especially shocked by Reuters points out that “Loss of energy output in MidEast will take about two years to recover“:
It will take about two years to recover the energy output lost in the Middle East from the conflict there.
“That will vary from country to country. In Iraq, for example, it will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia. However, we estimate it will take approximately two years overall to reach pre-war levels again,” Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said.
Birol added that the market was underestimating the consequences of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipments of oil and gas that were already en route to their destinations before the war in Iran began have now arrived, mitigating the impact of shortages, he said.
“But no new tankers were loaded in March. There were no new deliveries of oil, gas or fuels to Asian markets. This gap is now becoming apparent. If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices.”
Mr. Market must have felt like the Washington Post was piling on with “What the stock market might have gotten wrong about the Iran war“:
As stocks soared this week and oil prices dropped amid an apparent cooling of tensions between the United States and Iran, it may have left the impression that the energy shock that rattled the world would quickly fade, along with the risk of sending the global economy into recession.
The optimism may have been short-lived…
beneath that surface, a starkly different reality is unfolding. It is defined by disrupted supply lines and damaged infrastructure, sparking increased concern among the people who produce, transport and depend on energy.
“The people closest to the industry are far more concerned about these disruptions and recognize the length of time it will take for things to return to normal — if they ever do,” said Gerry Morton, oil and gas co-chair at the law firm Baker Botts. “The further away you get from actually being involved in producing oil, the less you seem to be concerned about the physical reality and problems that are there.”
Even investors rushing to tap into market optimism warned in interviews that it masks deep, underlying problems that threaten a reckoning in the not too distant future.
“We know supply chains are breaking down in Asia and even Europe,” said Ritesh Jain, founder of the investment firm Pinetree Macro. “We know a correction is eventually coming. But everybody wants to live the present moment.”
Western Media Singing From Same Old Ukrainian Hymnal
Simplicius tears into the MSM-aganda:
The US’s risible lies on Iran mirror the pattern used against Russia by the West in general: the West’s enemies are always characterized on the basis of what fits the momentary narrative…
In Iran we see this same playbook: Iran is both “completely destroyed” yet continues to pose some kind of existential threat requiring all kinds of countermeasures and threats of further “decimation” (as if a “completely obliterated” enemy could be “obliterated” even more). Iran’s nuclear materials have been destroyed by the invisible B-2 bombers when that heroic PR blurb is needed, but at the same time these “completely destroyed” materials still need to be gathered by the US, despite their having apparently been converted to “dust”.
The entire war is premised on an obvious fraud: Iran is said to pose a grave danger to the West for simply the suggestion that it might one day acquire nuclear missiles. Meanwhile, North Korea has not only nuclear weapons, but the long-range ICBMs necessary to reach the US mainland (which Iran doesn’t even have, regardless of the nuclear warhead). Yet for some reason, it is Iran that is the threat, despite North Korea openly threatening to nuke the US repeatedly.
Clearly, a nation with nuclear weapons threatening to use them against the US is not the issue, otherwise the broken down US carriers would be threatening to blockade North Korea’s oil as they are now doing to Iran. The real issue, of course, is that Iran poses a threat to Greater Israel and the genocide of all the region’s semitic people it would require.
Simplicius also embeds a video statement from the Iranian Parliament spokesman that includes this quote:
M.B. Ghalibaf: We are not militarily stronger than America. It is clear that they have more money, equipment, and resources, and because they have carried out so many aggressions around the world, they also have more experience than us. The Zionist regime, which is America’s servant and agent in the region, also possesses high power. We fought in an asymmetric war in such a way that, with our own design and preparedness, we pushed the enemy back. The enemy had money and resources but did not act correctly in design. They make mistakes in strategic decisions. They are wrong about our people, just as they are wrong in their military design. The U.S. government claims that “America First” is important to it, but in practice it has shown that Israel is first for it, because it makes decisions based on false information from Israel.
Policy Tensor has a complimentary analysis:
There was a time when the West had the stronger grip on reality. That time is gone. The West is increasingly living in a world of make-believe. It’s right there on the front pages.
The Americans insist on having won a great tactical victory, by which they mean that they have released a lot of weapons over Iranian territory. The British and the French say they will secure Hormuz, by which they mean they will secure it from the Barbary pirates after the Iranians stop firing.
Meanwhile, we’re told that the Western forces that could not retake Hormuz will somehow repel Chinese forces from Taiwan, that one more set of sanctions will collapse the Russian economy, that preventing China from accessing advanced chips will close the defense-industrial gap, and that a god will soon appear in a data center that will pull the West’s chestnuts out of the fire.
I’ll drop by Lebanon and Syria before we wrap this up.
Ceasefire, What’s a Ceasefire?
From Friday, via The Independent (UK):
The Lebanese army reported multiple Israeli violations of a ceasefire that began at midnight, hours after Donald Trump praised the “historic” truce.
Intermittent shelling was reported in several villages in southern Lebanon, prompting the army to advise citizens against returning to the area.
From Euronews:
A French UN peace worker has been killed in southern Lebanon as Israel accuses Hezbollah militants of breaching the 10-day ceasefire with Hezbollah.
The Israeli military said Saturday it had established a “Yellow Line” demarcation in southern Lebanon, similar to the one separating its forces from territory still held by Hamas in Gaza, adding that it had already struck suspected militants approaching its troops along the line.
“Over the past 24 hours, IDF forces operating south of the Yellow Line in southern Lebanon identified terrorists who violated the ceasefire understandings and approached the forces from north of the Yellow Line in a manner that posed an immediate threat,” the military said, referring to such a line for the first time since a ceasefire came into effect.
“Immediately after identification and in order to eliminate the threat … forces attacked the terrorists in several areas in southern Lebanon,” it said, noting that the military was authorised to take action against threats, despite the ceasefire.
“Actions taken in self-defence and to remove immediate threats are not restricted by the ceasefire,” the military said.
Via Ommcomnews:
Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem said that the ceasefire with Israel must mean a complete halt to aggression, warning the group will retaliate against Israeli violations in southern Lebanon.
“There is no ceasefire from one side only,” Qassem said in a statement, adding that Hezbollah fighters “will respond to violations of aggression accordingly.”
He outlined five key steps: a permanent halt to hostilities across Lebanon, a full Israeli withdrawal, detainee releases, the return of displaced residents, and reconstruction with Arab and international support, Xinhua news agency reported.
Hezbollah had not been defeated and would continue to pursue Lebanon’s liberation and independence, he added.
Qassem also said Hezbollah is open to “a new page” of cooperation with the Lebanese government, stressing readiness to work with state institutions to strengthen national unity and safeguard sovereignty.
What About Syria?
The Jerusalem Post has an interesting piece about the West’s favorite failing state:
Thousands of Syrians took to the streets last week in an unprecedented wave of mass protests against Israel, sparked by the Israeli Knesset’s approval of a controversial law allowing the death penalty for Palestinian prisoners convicted of terrorism. From the southern city of Ankhal in Daraa province – and all the way to Damascus, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Aleppo and Idlib – armed groups announced a general mobilization against the Israel. Videos circulating on social media showed protesters chanting “The nation wants jihad declared” and calling for the borders to be opened to confront Israeli forces. In Daraa and Quneitra, demonstrators moved toward the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, prompting Israeli forces to fire illumination flares to disperse the crowds.
The unrest escalated beyond mere street chants. In Damascus, rioters targeted both the U.S. and UAE embassies, causing significant alarm within the diplomatic community. In a formal statement, the UAE called on Syrian authorities to ensure the absolute protection of diplomatic missions and to hold the perpetrators accountable. This campaign, which lasted four consecutive days, bears the distinct marks of an orchestrated pressure campaign designed to corner the new Syrian government and signal possible support for the Iranian regime and its regional proxies.
What distinguishes these protests from previous demonstrations is the documented participation of Syrian government officials. The official spokesperson for the Interior Ministry was filmed among protesters, while members of the armed forces were also seen participating and inciting the crowds. This official endorsement of popular mobilization represents a significant departure from the government’s previously cautious approach to confrontation with Israel. In a striking display of state-sanctioned agitation, the 60th Division of the Syrian Army – headed by trusted ex-HTS commander Awad Al-Jasim – paraded in Aleppo in official military uniform while chanting support slogans for Gaza. This participation of a formal military unit in political protests, signals a significant erosion of the boundary between state military institutions and grassroot activism. Rather than maintaining military neutrality, such involvement raises serious questions about the chain of command and the government’s ability – or willingness – to control its own armed forces.
Sounds like the zionist entity is gearing up for another attack on Syria. That is if they don’t take 1945’s recommendation to preemptively attack Turkey.
That’s all for today, y’all stay safe out there.
