With Israel’s popularity nosediving among Democrats, AIPAC is having to up its dark money game to impact primaries, often, but not always in concert with AI, gambling and crypto interests.
With Polling Like This, Who Needs the Aggravation?
Let’s set the context with some polling:
Brutal new polling from NBC News shows views of Israel among Americans have declined across all age groups in the past several years. pic.twitter.com/F6LDMtgxWk
— a newsman (@a_newsman) March 16, 2026
Gallup Poll: American Sympathies toward Israel versus the Palestinians
For the first time since Gallup’s first poll in 1967, US sympathies reside more with Palestinians versus Israel.
With only 36% approval, in the court of public opinion, Israel is finished in the US. pic.twitter.com/GyE4Ox86i3
— GenXGirl (@GenXGirl1994) February 27, 2026
It’s not just Israel voters are tired of, AI is hated too:
The only things polled in the latest @NBCNews survey that are less popular than AI are the Democratic Party and Iran pic.twitter.com/Lq9rpzlGr3
— Allan Smith (@akarl_smith) March 8, 2026
The multiple crisis involving Israel (and to a lesser extent the coming AI economic implosion) have set off something I’ve been calling “The Political Blender” based on a metaphor by John Michael Greer.
In Feburary I covered how AIPAC blundered in a New Jersey primary, aiming their dark money at a candidate considered to be a soft-supporter of zionism, and accidentally helping a much-less Israel-sympathetic candidate take the nomination.
Succeeding events have forced them to adapt and up their dark money game.
POTUS Trump’s war of choice on Iran has only made things worse for those advocating the Netanyahu agenda. It’s gotten so bad former Obama Administration Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes is openly calling for Democrats to primary anyone supporting the war.
But Israel ain’t the only issue that’s unpopular with Democrats and interestingly, the other big hot button issue — anger at ICE — has become a tool to use in surprising ways.
Don’t Fall in that ICE Crack!
Politico sums up the stakes for Democratic candidates vis-a-vis ICE:
The instinct from rival campaigns to slam candidates in Democratic primaries over (ICE) is a testament to just how important opposition to the administration’s immigration agenda has become in these contentious races. “When you’re confronted with these harsh realities, how are you going to respond?” a Democratic strategist working on Latino voters told Playbook. “How are you actually going to take into account what the Latino community needs right now?”
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And it’s hit incumbents over DHS funding, which remains gridlocked as a month of the partial shutdown for the department nears. Only a handful of Democrats voted to advance the original six-bill appropriations package in January that also funded DHS during the Minnesota fallout. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) was one of them — but quickly released a statement expressing regret over that vote. “I hear the anger from my constituents, and I take responsibility for that,” he wrote.
“You can’t really deflect the fact that ICE is the central piece of the 2026 midterms, and that people are scrambling to make sure that their record is going to be clean come ’26,” the Democratic strategist working on Latino voters told Playbook.
Love those anonymous quotes! But, I digress.
If anyone knows how to take lemons and make lemonade it’s the well-funded, but not very popular dark money lobbies of the U.S.A.
Let’s look at how they’re working their magic in New York, using allegations about support for ICE to attack an anti-AI congressional candidate.
Well He Wasn’t Expecting That Line of Attack
Nancy Scola has the dark money deets for Politico:
Alex Bores had known for a while that a political operation called Leading the Future, funded by artificial-intelligence industry leaders, would be coming after him in his race to replace Democrat Jerry Nadler in New York’s 12th congressional district. He just wasn’t sure how.
The group had promised in November that they would target him, because Bores, a Democratic state assemblymember, had recently passed an AI safety bill in the New York legislature widely regarded as the furthest-reaching in the country.
When we spoke earlier this winter, before the group’s ads against him had come out, Bores was gaming out the likeliest attack scenarios. He thought that their strategy would have little to do with the policy issue that actually motivated it. He pointed to public polling showing broad public support for rules governing AI safety.
“I’m sure they won’t come after me on AI,” Bores, 35, told me, sitting in a midtown Manhattan bagel shop between campaign stops, “because they’re in the wrong.”
…
He was mostly right — to take down Bores, Leading the Future had to go for the jugular.
The first ad against him, a 42-second spot, was indeed over his bill, the Responsible Artificial Intelligence Safety and Education Act, aka the RAISE Act. The second ad, though, which dropped six weeks later, raised the stakes. It spent 30 seconds pummeling the candidate on his association with one of the most hot-button issues for the left-leaning voters who make up most of his Manhattan district.
“He made hundreds of thousands of dollars building and selling the tech for ICE,” said the ad, referring to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. From 2014 through 2019, Bores had worked at the controversial data analytics company Palantir. In his last nearly year and a half at the firm, Bores had helped lead its strategic partnerships with the federal government. Bores has said that he never worked on the company’s contract with ICE, and quit over his objections to that work.
Left unmentioned was that one of Leading the Future’s founding backers, Joe Lonsdale, was not just a staffer but a co-founder of Palantir. Bores sent Leading the Future a cease-and-desist letter, alleging the group made false statements about his work.
Classless, but possibly effective. Word gets around the sleazy campaign hack network fast because these same tactics have quickly gone national.
Axios describes the basic playbook and describes how it’s being applied in Illinois, where America’s 6th largest population is holding primary elections tomorrow:
Groups linked to AIPAC are employing an eyebrow-raising tactic to sink pro-Palestinian progressives in Democratic congressional primaries: Going after their leftist bona fides.
It is a telling indication of what the ruthlessly pragmatic pro-Israel organization sees as a winning message with Democratic voters who have grown increasingly hostile towards their brand.
Rather than running ads through its go-to Democratic political arm, United Democracy Project, AIPAC appears to have employed a web of vaguely named groups targeting specific districts this cycle.
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Chicago Progressive Partnership — which shares vendors, donors and a treasurer with other AIPAC-linked PACs — went on the air Thursday against Junaid Ahmed, the Congressional Progressive Caucus-backed candidate in Illinois’ 8th district.
Rather than going after Ahmed’s well-documented criticisms of Israel, the CPP ad highlights the left-leaning tech consultant’s personal wealth.
It also cites an investment in Tesla that he disclosed in 2022 to tie him to Trump ally Elon Musk, and says he consulted for fossil fuel companies.
The group has run a similar ad campaign against Kat Abughazaleh in Illinois’ 9th district, alleging the outspoken Palestinian-American progressive received funds from “right-wing donors” and noting her past Republican views as a teenager.
I touched on the IL-09 race in October for those interested.
Where Can We Buy Some State Sovereignty, National Union?
When I worked as a campaign hack, Illinois was seen as a paradise where reporting laws were lax, dark money spending was high, and corruption was bipartisan.
Locals may recognize my modification of the state motto in the section header above, the rest of you can try to keep up.
Chicago’s WBEZ provides a decent intro to this year’s model of campaign dark money family-bloggery:
National special-interest groups, which now include deep-pocketed cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence interests, have spent tens of millions of dollars to influence four hotly contested Democratic congressional primaries in the Chicago area.
Through Thursday, super PACs whose donors are hard to track had reported spending more than $31.4 million, including more than $6.1 million for attack ads that are swamping voters ahead of Tuesday’s primaries.
The portions from the crypto, AI and pro-Israel groups total $26.9 million, a WBEZ review of federal campaign disclosures has found.
The super PAC spending is far more than the last time the Chicago area had U.S. House primary races without an incumbent. In 2022, U.S. Rep. Jonathan Jackson’s campaign saw more than $1.1 million in super PAC support, while U.S. Rep. Delia Ramirez’s bid got a $1.5 million boost.
This election cycle, a handful of congressional candidates are seeing quadruple those amounts go toward their individual runs, with most of that super PAC money coming from a pro-Israel group and the trillion-dollar cryptocurrency and AI industries.
Qasim Rashid, Esq. puts together the big picture nicely in his “Let’s Address This” newsletter:
In Illinois we are witnessing a textbook example of how corporate money, often aligned with Trump and MAGA extremists, is undermining our entire democracy. In particular, AIPAC, Crypto money, and the sports betting industry are shelling out tens of millions of dollars to buy our primary elections. If they succeed here, they will no doubt expand their corrupting influence into the 45 states that have not yet had primary elections.
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But please know that we are witnessing a broader pattern in which AIPAC and its affiliated political infrastructure are trying to overwhelm local elections with national geopolitical money. The spending in the 9th District is not isolated. AIPAC-aligned spending is also flowing across Illinois congressional races to protect candidates who remain aligned with its policy agenda.
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The pattern is unmistakable. Candidates who rely on grassroots support and who are willing to speak openly about international law and human rights find themselves facing a tidal wave of outside spending designed to bury their campaigns under attack ads. Meanwhile, voters are often misled by PAC names that sound progressive or civic-minded but are in fact vehicles for advancing a narrow geopolitical agenda—in this case, defending Israel’s genocide….
We’ll come back to Rashid, but let’s look at Illinois 9th Congressional district primary a bit more first.
This Race Is Big Time, It’s in the NY Times
Before we get to what the New York Times has to say, let’s let Emma Janssen of the American Prospect describe the horse race and help us understand why it’s been targeted by so much dark money:
With just days left before the primary election in Illinois’s Ninth Congressional District on March 17, super PACs are shoveling money toward one candidate, Laura Fine, while the two progressive front-runners, Daniel Biss and Kat Abughazaleh, vie for votes from the left.
The Ninth District is an oddly shaped mix of urban and suburban areas, mostly liberal, starting in the northernmost neighborhoods of Chicago, stretching to the city of Evanston, and continuing west to include a wide swath of suburbs and small towns.
The district has drawn national attention because of its two leading candidates: Biss is the mayor of Evanston, and Abughazaleh is a political newcomer with a background in progressive media. Both of them were outspoken critics of ICE’s presence in Chicago last fall, and became familiar faces at the weekly protests outside of ICE’s Broadview detention facility in the city’s suburbs.
A clip of Abughazaleh being violently grabbed and thrown onto the pavement by an ICE agent during one of those protests went viral, and now anchors her latest television ad.
Don’t worry, we’ll get to the NYT piece but first let’s hear from Jewish Currents who are worried AIPAC is repeating its New Jersey mistake and misspending its dark money:
Since late February, an AIPAC-linked super PAC called Elect Chicago Women has spent $1.4 million attacking Evanston, Illinois mayor Daniel Biss, a liberal Zionist running in the Democratic primary for a Chicago-area House seat.
It seemed a replay of the tactic AIPAC used in February in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional district, where the pro-Israel group spent over $2 million against the moderate pro-Israel Democrat Tom Malinowski, who had been open to conditioning aid to Israel. AIPAC’s strategy there backfired after their attacks on Malinowski led to the Democratic primary victory of Analilla Mejia, a more left-wing candidate who has called Israel’s actions in Gaza a genocide.
The attacks on Biss resurface the puzzle of the Malinowski race: Why is AIPAC using its resources to attack liberal Zionists, particularly in races where they face opponents farther to their left?
In recent weeks, the AIPAC-linked super PAC Chicago Progressive Partnership has dropped around $1 million against Abughazaleh, who opposes all weapons sales to Israel. The last-minute turn against Abughazaleh seems to be an indication that AIPAC’s attacks on Biss could be pushing voters towards Abughazaleh, rather than their preferred candidate, State Senator Laura Fine, said Usamah Andrabi, the communications director for the progressive electoral group Justice Democrats, which has endorsed Abughazaleh. “That was a misstep that probably led to more voters going to Kat, and now in the 11th hour they’re spending against Kat,” he said.
The pricey last-minute attacks on Abughazaleh highlight the bind in which AIPAC has found itself, as it struggles to oppose both leftist critics of Israel, and liberal Democrats who were formerly willing to join the AIPAC camp. Political observers say AIPAC is focusing their money on liberal Democrats because they are going after the candidates thought to be the front-runners in their districts, and because the liberals increasingly support conditions on aid to Israel, a position that AIPAC sees as anathema.
And what does the National Paper of Record have to say about this crazy-mixed-up-muddled-up dark money mess?
Looks like they’re caught a little bit of suspiciously well-funded misdirection going on in a multi-candidate primary. Back in my campaign days when Karl Rove did things like this we called it straight up family-bloggery:
A Democratic House primary in Illinois that has centered on disagreements over Israel and has been blanketed by outside spending is coming to a close with an unusual twist — an upbeat 30-second ad that candidates say is not what it seems.
Over a bouncy beat, the ad’s narrator casts a long-shot candidate, Bushra Amiwala, as an appealing option for progressive voters in the Chicago-area Ninth Congressional District, saying she is the “real deal” and is fighting for “real economic justice.”
Ms. Amiwala responded this weekend by saying she “absolutely could not be more disgusted” by the commercial.
To Ms. Amiwala, a fierce critic of Israel, the ad was an inexplicable arrival from an unwelcome source: Chicago Progressive Partnership, a super PAC that has disclosed few details about its backers but shares vendors with groups linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the hard-line pro-Israel lobbying organization.
Kat Abughazaleh, a progressive influencer who has appeared to gain some late momentum, argued that AIPAC-aligned groups were trying to split the progressive vote to halt her rise. And Mayor Daniel Biss of Evanston, a progressive who has led in the polls, said that if anyone was being targeted, it was him.
He accused AIPAC of trying to siphon off his votes.
…
AIPAC appears to be “panicked about the fact that they could have a repeat of what happened in New Jersey,” said David Axelrod, the Democratic analyst who was chief strategist for Barack Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns.
“It’s kind of a tortured mess — a Goldberg contraption of a campaign,” Mr. Axelrod added. He said that AIPAC might have “underestimated the sophistication of the electorate.”
Analysts have suggested that AIPAC, through allied groups, is trying to squeeze Ms. Abughazaleh from both directions: by targeting her with negative ads and by propping up another progressive candidate who might appeal to the same voters.
That’s not the only underhanded tactic the dark money is using in Il-09 either. Per MS NOW:
A week out from a crowded and contentious Democratic primary in Illinois’s 9th Congressional District, Amanda Informed, an online influencer in Florida received an email with an offer: one negative post about candidate Kat Abughazaleh on Instagram and TikTok, for $1,500.
The request, which came from a secretive political organization called Democracy Unmuted, was forwarded to her by Matt Anthes, founder of Advocators, a digital marketing agency focused on politics and advocacy through micro-influencers.
The job offer, reviewed by MS NOW, came with a brief explaining how the group wanted Amanda — who declined to give her real name citing privacy concerns — to post for her roughly 100,000 followers. Democracy Unmuted explained that it wanted creators to “engage voters” and encouraged them “to look past viral personalities and ask real questions about who is running and why.”
The suggested talking points were all focused on Abughazaleh, the youngest candidate and a former journalist for the left-leaning website Media Matters. The offer called for influencers to “highlight more than one” of Abughazaleh’s alleged shortcomings: she was inexperienced, came from a wealthy family, may live with her partner in a different neighborhood and is too new to the area to serve.
“Kat’s campaign appears designed for attention rather than impact,” the brief said.
The NYT has a handy survey of polls for those looking to lay some money down and get in on the action curious.
But let’s pull back beyond AIPAC and learn how the AI and crypto bros are playing on the same field, and not always rowing in the same direction as AIPAC.
It’s AI’s World, We Just Provide Source Data
Once again, Emma Janssen is covering for the American Prospect:
pro-AI groups are hoping to elect legislators who will be sympathetic to their plans to create a national framework for AI regulation and enable the construction of more data centers, which are needed to power big AI models.
In Chicagoland, the industry found those sympathetic candidates in Jesse Jackson Jr., son of the recently deceased former progressive presidential candidate, who is hoping to regain his old seat in the Second Congressional District, and Melissa Bean, running for her old seat in the Eighth District. Jackson is hoping to make a comeback after he was investigated for misuse of campaign funds in 2012, resigned from the seat, pled guilty, and was sentenced to 30 months in prison. After leaving her seat, Bean spent over a decade in the banking world and is no stranger to the role of big money in politics.
In Jackson’s case, the AI PAC money is going up directly against AIPAC, which has driven donors to Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, while also spending big money through Affordable Chicago Now on pro-Miller ads.
As of February 19, a PAC called Think Big has spent over $1 million on both Jackson and Bean. Think Big is the Democratic affiliate of the super PAC Leading the Future, which says it and its associates have raised $125 million in commitments and have $70 million in cash on hand. Leading the Future is funded by major tech donors, including Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz (of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz) and Greg and Anna Brockman. Greg Brockman is the co-founder and president of OpenAI; in 2024, alongside his wife Anna, he gave $25 million to pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc.
Let’s look a little bit more at the neighboring IL-08th district where Melissa Bean is floating like a cork on an ocean of dark money.
Can’t Spell AIPAC Without AI
Going back to the Emma Janssen well from American Progress for this update on the race and the family-bloggery going on:
In Illinois’s Eighth Congressional District, a former investment banker is attempting a political comeback after a stretch as perhaps the most conservative Democrat in Washington. Against a field of grassroots challengers, big money is pouring in to assist the return of “Wall Street’s Favorite Democrat” to Congress.
There are eight candidates in the race, but with less than a week to go until the March 17 primary, the two main contenders are Melissa Bean, the aforementioned former Blue Dog member of Congress, and Junaid Ahmed, a progressive backed by Justice Democrats (the group behind the “Squad” in Congress).
…
Bean, who represented the Eighth District from 2005 to 2011, is hoping to regain her seat now that incumbent Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi is stepping aside to run for Senate. She’s backed by a staggering amount of super PAC money, including from an AIPAC shadow PAC and a pro-AI group. Pro-crypto PACs have also pledged to spend $1 million in the race.
Elect Chicago Women, the innocuously named AIPAC shadow PAC, has spent nearly $4 million in support of Bean’s campaign already. The pro-AI PAC Think Big, which is also backing Jesse Jackson Jr.’s campaign in Illinois’s Second District, has spent over $1 million. Bean is also backed by the New Democrat Majority PAC, which supports centrist Democratic candidates; she was a member of the New Dems and the Blue Dog Coalition in her first stint in Congress.
The piece is worth reading in full as it outlines Bean’s shameful history in Congress, but I’m going to let a graph do several thousand words worth of work here:
pic.twitter.com/sGdZCWFWxv
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) March 16, 2026
And here’s one of those attack ads that dark money is buying for Bean:
AIPAC’s dark money group, “Chicago Progressive Partnership,” just filed another $500K media buy attacking Bernie-endorsed Junaid Ahmed from the left in IL08. Total spending against Junaid is now $664K. Junaid must be polling well against AIPAC-backed Melissa Bean. pic.twitter.com/HZ549BPC8r
— Frank Calabrese (@FrankCalabrese) March 15, 2026
But let’s keep it moving, put your waders on.
David Moore at Sludge identified the scope of the AI and crypto-aligned dark money problem opportunity:
Super PACs backed by the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence industries, as well as the pro-Israel lobby, have stockpiled hundreds of millions in cash to drop in 2026 midterms, setting themselves up to smash midterm spending records by outside groups.
The crypto industry-funded Fairshake super PAC ended the year with a whopping $191 million in cash on hand, while AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project (UDP), ended the year with $96 million. Following in their tracks is the new AI industry super PAC Leading the Future, which had $50 million cash on hand and touts far more in pledges.
Excluding money spent by party leadership-tied groups, the current high-water mark for super PAC spending on midterms was set in the 2022 cycle by Club for Growth Action, which spent a total of $69 million.
Fairshake reported total receipts of nearly $73.8 million in the second half of 2025, according to new Federal Election Commission disclosures covering the second half of last year. Its donors during that period were Coinbase ($8 million), Ripple Labs ($25 million), and VC firm Andreessen Horowitz ($24 million), together the group’s largest funders in the past few years. Fairshake’s two affiliate super PACs—the Democrat-focused Protect Progress and the Republican-focused Defend American Jobs—have an additional $2 million in cash on hand.
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A new crypto industry super PAC, Digital Freedom Fund, funded by the Winklevoss twins, raised $22.3 million from July through December, largely in Bitcoin that has not yet been liquidated. Payward, the parent company of the Kraken exchange, donated $1 million to the new super PAC; last cycle, it donated that same amount to Fairshake. Another crypto industry group, called Fellowship PAC, has sprung up, reportedly to challenge what they see as Fairshake’s tilt toward its largest donors like Coinbase. In September, Fellowship PAC, positioned as more closely aligned with the GOP and Trump, announced $100 million in donor pledges, reportedly including the stablecoin company Tether; however, the PAC filed zero dollars received through Dec. 31.
I promised we’d hear a little bit more from Qasim Rashid, Esq.
Crypto Sending a MAGA-Dem to Congress?
From a different issue of Rashid’s Let’s Address This:
Deep blue Illinois is on the verge of electing a United States Senator who aligns far more closely with Trump, MAGA power brokers, and ICE infrastructure expansion than with the values of a deep-blue state. And he is betting his nearly $28 million—much of it raised from corporate PACs, billionaire tech executives, crypto interests, and Trump-aligned donors—that voters will not look closely enough to notice.
…
If you live in Illinois, you’ve no doubt been inundated with polished ads from Raja Krishnamoorthi presenting himself as a pragmatic progressive, the child of immigrants living the American dream. But campaigns are marketing exercises. Records are what matter. And the record tells a very different story.
The Chicago Tribune has more on the charming Mr. Krishnamoorthi and his big-spending dark money pals:
Krishnamoorthi’s prowess at raising campaign cash not only gave him an early, dominant presence on Illinois airwaves but also has made him one of Washington’s most prodigious fundraisers.
Now, with millions of dollars flowing through ostensibly independent political action committees — including one, funded substantially by billionaire Gov. JB Pritzker, backing Stratton and three PACs funded at least in part by Krishnamoorthi supporters — questions about who is funding whom have moved to the fore of the Democratic race as the March 17 primary quickly approaches.
Having raised $30.5 million between the start of 2025 and Feb. 25 — including more than $19 million transferred from his House campaign fund — Krishnamoorthi is the nation’s second-highest fundraising federal candidate this election season. Only Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has brought in $63.9 million since the start of his term as he defends a swing-state seat that could help determine the balance of power in Washington, has raised more.
Opponents have argued Krishnamoorthi’s donor base has made him beholden to special interests, including supporters of Republican President Donald Trump. Some fellow members of the Indian American community, a long-standing source of his support, have criticized him for accepting contributions from figures aligned with India’s Hindu nationalist movement. And former staffers interviewed by the Tribune said collecting campaign contributions was a near-singular focus for Krishnamoorthi, who they said could be harsh with employees.
Before we close, let’s not forget the gambling interests. Their dark money voice needs to be heard too!
DraftKings Money Is as Green as Anybody Else’s
Local journalist Rebecca Burns sums up the playbook, as applied in this case in a state legislative race:
In sum, the current Dem establishment playbook is: 1) Do nothing when armed forces occupy our cities, 2) Later on, once it’s popular, pretend you did, 3) Use dark money to attack challengers who *actually* did, and 4) Keep telling us it’s too divisive to say “Abolish ICE”
— Rebecca Burns (@RebeccaJBurns_) March 15, 2026
In These Times has more context on the race and the family-bloggery dark money games being played:
Last September the sports betting duopoly DraftKings and FanDuel ran into a brick wall in Illinois. Once the state started assessing a $0.25 trade tax on every bet, sports betting “plummeted” in the state by 15% year over year.
The result? American Future, a super PAC bankrolled by DraftKings’ wholly owned subsidiary, DK Crown Holdings, is spending big—$1.2 million—in the Democratic primaries for Illinois legislative seats, according to reporting from Capitol Fax and the latest campaign finance filings. Intent on electing representatives who will resist further taxes on the gaming industry, the PAC has become the largest outside spender so far in the Illinois state legislative primary slated for March 17.
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American Future’s biggest beneficiary, receiving more than $263,000, is Emil Jones III, a state senator who was indicted in 2022 on federal bribery charges, and faces little-known opponents in his race to hold on to his seat. In a race featuring a stark ideological contrast, American Future has spent over $220,000 in the 40th Legislative District in northwest Chicago, backing an entrenched Democratic machine incumbent, Jaime Andrade, Jr., against a democratic socialist challenger, Miguel Alvelo-Rivera, who, in a statement to the Center for Media and Democracy, pledged to “fight to tax wealthy corporations and individuals in Illinois, and… make sure they know our legislature isn’t for sale.”
Those poor confused kids at DraftKings, operating under the misapprehension that the Illinois legislature is for sale. Wait ’til they hear about the U.S. Congress.
