[This Iran war post is launching again before complete. It is not likely to be done before 8:30 AM EDT. Please FIRST AND FOREMOST go to our must-read submission by Kevin Kirk, on Israel’s nuclear weapons program. Please circulate that article widely. When you then return to our update, feel free to comment straight away, but do refresh your browsers and re-skim at 8:30 AM]
An important development in the last day or two in the Iran war are increasing actual and de-facto media admissions that Iran is succeeding in inflicting considerable economic and kinetic pain and Western efforts to blunt it are not having much effect. For instance, live blog headlines at major media outlets would be sure to put Israel strikes first, and either not mention Iran action or put it second. We’ll soon turn to the conditions that are driving that recognition, such as the pretty-much non-existent prospects for forcing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran continuing to escalate on the battlefield as it depletes US, Israel, and Gulf state missile defenses. Moreover, even the icon of statecraft prognostications, Foreign Affairs, has published Iran’s Drone Advantage which we will discuss soon.
Consider the Bloomberg banner headline as 6:45 AM EDT:
The Wall Street Journal:
Admittedly, there is a noteworthy lack of agency at the BBC:
In terms of oil prices resuming their upward trajectory, perhaps Mr. Market took note of the IRCG having vowed to drive the price of crude to $200 a barrel. They have delivered on their earlier commitments. From the BBC live feed mid-morning yesterday:
Iran says it won’t allow ‘a single litre of oil’ to pass through Strait of Hormuz
Iran says its policy for reciprocal strikes “has ended”, a spokesman for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters says in a statement.
Tehran’s policy now will be “strike upon strike,” spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari says.
Tehran will “not allow even a single litre of oil” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach the US, Israel and their partners, Zolfaqari adds. “Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target.”
“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised,” the spokesman adds.
A meaningful development in the past day is that (as mentioned by John Mearsheimer in a new talk with Chris Hedges) is that Iran, which had been hitting US bases and other targets in the Gulf, had been attacking Israel much less fiercely than in the 12 Day War. The IRGC said it would turn its attention more to Israel now. See the contrast between the two videos below. The France 24 one has the reporter describing how in most of Israel (one assumes ex Tel Aviv, where there have been reports of a fair bit of damage), Iran seems to be sending in drones and missiles at almost leisurely pacing, with the intent of keeping Israels mainly in shelters, disrupting economic life, and fraying their nerves. Also be sure to listen to her detail a new political scandal:
Hindustan Times describes how Iran has considerably intensified its strikes into Israel and how its attacks are now on concert with Hezbollah:
To the concern of most of the world, about energy and goods supplies from the Gulf, Sal Mercagliano describes how there is no relief in sight. He mentions that vessels are still transiting the Strait daily but oddly does not indicate that most if not all are Iranian (a point made by Mearsheimer, Iranian ships, natch, are still able to go in and out). He also mentions the US insurance scheme as if it was making a difference in insurers offer war risk coverage, when that seems unlikely to be much of a factor (see S&P explaining why there are well-warranted doubts about it). He offers many important observations, such as that fuel for ships is set to become scarce and carriers will be applying surcharges to cover the higher cost:
Janta Ka focuses on Iran’s destruction of two American oil tankers:
Paul R send a further cause for worry about risk to vessels trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in the form of a new Defense Security Asia article, US Navy’s New Strait of Hormuz Nightmare: Iran’s ‘Azhdar’ Stealth Underwater Drone Could Disrupt Global Shipping and Redefine Naval Warfare. But note that this article is not clear on whether these drones have been deployed yet. However, Janta Ka indicated that underwater drones were part of the attack on the US tankers.
To continue with kinetic war considerations: Mearsheimer mentioned that the US looked set to continue up the escalation ladder even though that will only lead to worse outcomes. Iran has already said it is abandoning its approach of retaliatory strikes (that seems to be the result of the Tehran refinery attack which releases noxious fumes all over the city) and will engage in freer fire. The US hit the data center of the state bank Tehran during business hours, killing staff; the apparent military excuse was that it processed salary payments to IRCG members. Iran quickly started attacking American banks in the Gulf region. Mearsheimer warned that the US, which so far has checked Israel in striking Iran desalination plants and petroleum facilities, might recklessly start hitting them. Needless to say, Israel and the family dictatorships are far more vulnerable to retaliatory attacks.
Troublingly, the Wall Street Journal is pushing the Trump Administration in that direction, by insisting that it not back down in a conflict it cannot win. From Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies:
If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war.
But leaving in place Iran’s theocratic regime—angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones—would essentially grant Tehran control over the world’s energy markets. It would also sacrifice the security of America’s partners and allies, and possibly make another, more devastating, regional war likely.
On other aspects of the kinetic war. An open question is to what extent the US can operate from its 27 bases in the region. Note that the term “base” is used liberally; some might be more accurately called installations. It is above my pay grade to know how many can be used to launch attacks, as opposed to serving in more of a support capacity, say for logistics. As we described, Richard Medhurst had assembled photos of many of them showing how Iran was hitting them repeatedly, with Medhurst saying they were being reduced to dust.
But how many are in that condition? Larry Johnson provide some additional information in Donald Trump’s War on Iran is Turning into a Debacle:
Iran’s attacks began shortly after the conflict’s start (e.g., February 28 onward) and targeted 13 sites in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, and Iraq:
- Kuwait: Multiple strikes on Ali Al Salem Air Base (March 1), Camp Arifjan (March 4), Shuaiba port (March 2, killing six U.S. service members with partial roof collapse visible in satellite images), and Camp Buehring (March 5, drone explosion near sports facilities with no casualties).
- Bahrain: U.S. Navy 5th Fleet HQ struck (February 28/March 1), including damage to a communications radome shown in verified video.
- Saudi Arabia: Prince Sultan Air Base (March 1), with one U.S. service member killed.
- Qatar: Al Udeid Air Base (March 9) and Umm Dahal radar site (damage to AN/FPS-132 radar).
- UAE: Al Dhafra Air Base (March 3), Jebel Ali port (March 1), Al Ruwais (near THAAD unit), and Al Sader facilities.
- Jordan: Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (March 4), with severe damage to air defense sensors.
- Iraq: Erbil Airport (March 1).
- Other: Strikes reached as far as Turkey (NATO intercepted missiles aimed at Incirlik Air Base on March 4, which Iran denied).
Some bases (e.g., Al Udeid, Ali Al Salem, Al Dhafra) were hit multiple times. Diplomatic targets included the U.S. consulate in Dubai and embassies in Kuwait City, Riyadh, and Baghdad (rocket attack on March 8, no casualties confirmed).
While US CENTCOM continues to insist that Iran has done little damage, the reality is that Iran has crippled the ability of the US to launch and sustain combat operations from the bases and installations listed above.
As indicated in the opening section, none other than the august Foreign Affairs is raising alarms about Iran’s drone prowess in Iran’s Drone Advantage . Key points:
The idea that the United States, the world’s preeminent military power, would copy Iranian technology would have seemed fantastical just a few years ago. And yet, the Shahed-136, after being sold to Russia for use against Ukraine, was captured and studied by the U.S. military, improved on and produced by a small company in Arizona, and is now being used against Iranian targets. For its part, Tehran has unleashed a wave of Shahed-136 drones across the Middle East as part of its response to Washington’s Operation Epic Fury. The drones have struck buildings in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, and even the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia. Although the size of Tehran’s remaining stockpile of drones is unclear, their sweeping deployment has become a critical element of the Iranian strategy for retaliation and proves that the character of war has changed.
Indeed, the United States’s adversaries have much to teach it in this new era. Although Washington still leads in the development and deployment of sophisticated capabilities, such as fighter jets, tanks, and cruise missiles, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine are ahead in the development and deployment of low-cost, increasingly autonomous drones for surveillance, as well as for short-range and long-range strikes. Washington now recognizes the need for these systems, but it has yet to take the steps necessary to manufacture them at scale. Moscow has a daily target of producing up to 1,000 Geran-2 drones this year. Washington could start churning out similar numbers of LUCAS drones in a matter of months, but only if it makes the necessary policy changes and investments….
Washington’s interest in Iran’s Shahed-136 is unusual and, in some respects, unprecedented. Although U.S. scientists have long striven to acquire adversaries’ military technology—racing to recover the wrecks of Soviet aircraft, for instance, or purchasing Chinese technology from third parties—the purpose was not to copy it. Rather, Washington generally acquired an adversary’s technology to learn how to defeat them. Over the last 80 years, there have been only a handful of examples of the U.S. military constructing and fielding its own version of a foreign capability.
The success of the drones in the Iran war is serving as an overdue wake-up call. Russia is ahead of the US in many critical arms categories, such as air defense, signal jamming and hypersonic missiles. Yet it is the pummeling Iran is inflicting with relatively cheap drones, with its Shahed’s the modern analogy to the AK-47, that is forcing the US out of its assumptions of its superiority, in no small measure rooted in bigotry.
Bloomberg also focused on Iran’s cost advantages in Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Unprecedented Strain:
But as the conflict extends toward a third week, the US war effort is showing unexpected signs of strain against an adversary whose military budget is smaller than the GDP of Vermont — but which has an arsenal of missiles and drones unlike anything the US has ever faced…
Iran spent years building its missile and drone arsenals, spreading them around the country and concealing them. Some of its sophisticated ballistic missiles — perfected with designs and technology from China, Russia and North Korea — have broken through US allies’ defenses across the region….
The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been struck by several ballistic missiles and Shaheds, a rare and expensive early warning radar in Qatar was destroyed, and the radar for a $300 million THAAD battery — the most advanced ground-based mobile missile defense system in the US inventory — was hit in Jordan…
Before the war, Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles, with ranges from a few hundred kilometers to more than 2,000. So far, it’s fired about 700. ..
Estimates of Iran’s Shahed inventory vary widely. More than 2,100 Shaheds have been fired so far, according to Bloomberg reporting. US and Israeli air strikes have reduced the country’s ability to produce more, but stockpiles remain and manufacturing them requires no complex components….
The result: The US and its partners in the Gulf most likely burned through well over 1,000 PAC-3 interceptors alone. That’s almost twice the annual production of the weapons and more than the US and its allies have supplied to Ukraine since the Russian invasion four years ago, according to Kyiv. Officials there have been astonished at Gulf states deploying PAC-3s to bring down low-cost drones….
The Defense Department is spending $93 million to replace as many as 10 SM-6 naval air defense missiles. Another $225 million is set aside to increase production of both those and SM-3 missile interceptors, made by RTX Corp’s Raytheon unit, from 96 to 360 annually. But that will take years. After years of underfunding missile purchases, not all the money for the added capacity has yet been approved by Congress.
US Uses Costly Munitions in Iran Campaign
Source: US Defense Department; Bloomberg reporting
In addition to running down supplies of interceptors, Iranian strikes have also taken a toll on the radars and other equipment used to direct them. One attack damaged a radar for a THAAD, an air-defense system of which the US has only 8 deployed around the world. The radar that was hit in Jordan is the first such loss in combat.
With my pinstriped labcoat on (chemist and VC), sulphuric acid is essential to the manufacture of just about everything:
– it is a strong acid for working with materials of all stripes and stages, from ore to finished product, and for providing acid conditions in chemical engineering, e.g. for catalysis.
– it is a strong oxidant for synthesising chemicals where you need to change oxidation state, either of the product at interim or final steps or of the other reagents (i.e. generating an active reagent in situ).
– it is the starting material for various sulphur-containing functional groups that are important in synthetic organic chemistry, either for their properties in the final product or their properties at interim steps (protecting groups, leaving groups etc.).
Without sulphuric acid, industrial life stops. Sulphuric acid production depends both on petrochemical energy and on sourcing sulphur from oil and gas refining.
For that matter, hydrochloric and nitric acid are equally fundamental, as is caustic soda (sodium hydroxide, a base). The nitric acid supply chain is linked to ammonia production which is dependent on natural gas production. Nitric acid has similar uses, bit different in specifics, to sulphuric acid.
Provided you have energy and equipment (assume a tin opener), hydrochloric acid and sodium hydroxide can be had from the electrolysis of brine and are less directly affected by oil and gas market disruption. They are not oxidising and are not such versatile sources of functional groups in synthesis but still very important in creating appropriate reaction conditions.
Kevin Walmsley described how the global airline industry is suffering bigly, not just from higher fuel costs but also the loss of/limited access to Middle Eastern hubs. From his Global airline industry crashing, after just one week of war on Iran:
The cost of jet fuel is skyrocketing, and the prices paid to refineries to process crude into fuel is higher than the cost of oil itself.
Tens of thousands of flights across the Middle East have been canceled, and air traffic re-routed to avoid Persian Gulf airspace.
Air travel to the Middle East is highly profitable to airlines, because of the revenue mix from upper-income tourists and business travel.
Western airlines were already at a competitive disadvantage to carriers in East Asia, because of the Russia problem: Asian airlines overfly Russia, saving operations costs and time, while carriers in the US, Canada, and Europe take far longer routes around Russian airspace.
Note one part of his article is not quite right:
Some carriers have resumed limited operations, but the priority is getting out travelers already stranded, and expatriation flights of diplomats and their families.
Emirates has very clearly said passengers with existing bookings have priority if their flights are running. They are not bumping booked passengers for evacuating passengers. had the same thing happen when I was a volcano refugee in London in 2010. Had to wait not just for flights to go out but also for a seat to open up. Admittedly, some carriers may be bumping booked passengers to get the stranded out.
Note the US majors stopped fuel hedging. Oopise! From the Financial Times:
Four of the biggest US airlines risk paying an extra $11bn for jet fuel this year after their decision not to hedge their expected purchases left them exposed to soaring prices triggered by the Iran conflict.
The price of US jet fuel has soared almost 60 per cent since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hitting $3.95 a gallon late last week, according to the Argus US Jet Fuel index, which measures daily spot prices at American aviation hubs.
We had expressed concerns about aluminum supplies in an earlier post. There has been some relief on that front. From the Bloomberg live feed:
Qatar Aluminum no longer plans to fully shut down its smelter in the country, and will instead maintain operations at about 60% of capacity after confirmation that the plant will continue to receive gas from its supplier.
Qatalum had begun a controlled shutdown of the facility on March 3 after QatarEnergy said it was going to suspend gas supply. Aluminum prices have surged since the conflict in Iran began, with smelters facing disruptions to outbound sales of metals and incoming raw materials.
All for today. See you tomorrow! Updates in comments.
