Yesterday we looked at the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan, Iran\u2019s interests in the South Caucasus, and how the standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan is being used to apply more pressure on Iran and has all the signs of a neocon divide and conquer scheme. ereHwe\u2019ll examine the roles of three other major players in the Caucasus powder keg: the US, T\u00fcrkiye, and Russia.<\/p>\n
The US<\/p>\n
Washington has another proxy lined up in Armenia, which has turned its back on its long-time ally Russia and remains at odds with its neighbors to the East and West, Azerbaijan and T\u00fcrkiye, respectively. For more background on Armenia\u2019s turn to the West see here, here, and here.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s enough here to say that the US is overseeing the peace process between Baku and Yerevan and has US armed forces representatives stationed in the Armenian Defense Ministry. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently outlined the situation well:<\/p>\n
\u201cI hope, Yerevan is aware that any deepening of cooperation with the alliance may result in its losing sovereignty in the sphere of national defense and security\u2026This cannot but cause our concern. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of our Armenian colleagues to the fact that NATO\u2019s true goal is to strengthen its positions in the region and create conditions for manipulation based on the \u2018divide and conquer\u2019 scheme.\u201d<\/p>\n
Washington can now use its dominant position in Armenia to pressure Azerbaijan, Iran, and T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n
What are its ultimate aims? According to State Department spokesperson Ned Price they\u2019re entirely innocent:<\/p>\n
Our only goal here is to see and to help these countries work together to bring about a comprehensive and lasting peace, and ultimately to save lives.<\/p>\n
If you don\u2019t believe that, there are plenty of other indications that Armenia is just another piece in Washington\u2019s endless quest for global hegemony \u2014 and it matters little how many lives are extinguished to get there.<\/p>\n
In this case, the US wants to use its position in Armenia to help subdue Iran, separate it from Russia, and spread Israel\/US dominance through the region. The current National Defense Authorization Act already outlines several pillars of this in its \u201cBlack Sea security and development strategy\u201d that can effectively be boiled down to \u201ckeep Russia and China out and the US and NATO in.\u201d<\/p>\n
What that envisions is an arc of \u201crules-based order\u201d states from the Caspian to the Adriatic that would allow the US to exercise control over the movement of energy and goods through the region, and especially in the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n
We can go back to O\u2019Brien\u2019s Nov. 15 comments during \u201cThe Future of Nagorno-Karabakh\u201d House committee hearing for insight on the US intentions regarding these routes. Here\u2019s what O\u2019Brien said:<\/p>\n
\u201cA future that is built around the access of Russia and Iran as the main participants in the security of the region, the South Caucasus, is unstable and undesirable, including for both the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia. They have the opportunity to make a different decision now.\u201d<\/p>\n
Neocon think tanks in Washington like the RAND Corporation and Middle East Media Research Institute have long advocated for stirring up trouble in the South Caucasus as another way to weaken Russia and Iran and potentially cause a rift between the two.<\/p>\n
The US also wants to put up roadblocks for China. Azerbaijan and China signed a Joint Declaration on establishing a strategic partnership at this year\u2019s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The economic components of that agreement focused on cooperation in oil and gas production and transport infrastructure \u2014 i.e., continuing their pursuit of connectivity through the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route. Georgia\u2019s turn away from the West and its selection of a Chinese consortium to build its Anaklia port (a whole other story in which the final chapter has yet to be written as the US and EU gear up for a color revolution attempt) highlight American challenges of holding back the tide in the region.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
The US thinking is likely that if it cements peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, gets an agreement on a trade corridor through Armenia, and continues to control Armenia, well, it then controls the trade corridor. That would be a success for the US. But it\u2019s also akin to a game of whack-a-mole as there are other routes in development or already operational.<\/p>\n
Nonetheless, on the Zangezur leg, from the US neocon perspective they\u2019re looking at a win-win: either control or destruction, and they\u2019re always okay with the latter.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye<\/p>\n
The Atlantic Council argued in July that \u201cto engage T\u00fcrkiye, make it part of the plan.\u201d Well, you\u2019d think someone would\u2019ve thought of that by now. So what exactly is T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s role in \u201cthe plan\u201d? At least a few parts that would appeal to Ankara are counterbalancing Russia-Iran ties and promoting its status as an energy hub.<\/p>\n
How does the Zangezur Corridor fit into those plans? Turkiye envisages it facilitating its trade with Central Asia and China and expanding its influence through the region at the expense of Iran\u2019s. There was always the possibility that Turkiye might enter into a rapprochement with the West in order to achieve that goal as it would benefit both sides\u00a0if\u00a0the corridor is not under Russian control. The Zangezur corridor is a big deal for T\u00fcrkiye, which believes it would lead to the country\u2019s rise as a Eurasian Great Power. Here\u2019s what Ankara envisions:<\/p>\n
A gas pipeline from Baku to T\u00fcrkiye through the corridor.
\nIncreased leverage in negotiating gas prices with Iran.
\nResurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that gas through T\u00fcrkiye to Europe (A pipeline through a Nakhchivan corridor could help boost supplies to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, although that would be years away, and ironically, due to its heavy investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, one of the bigger beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku deals would be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.
\nA logistics corridor stretching to China.
\nA railroad line from T\u00fcrkiye to Nakhchivan could make T\u00fcrkiye a regional transit hub in addition to an energy one.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
The US-T\u00fcrkiye relationship is always transactional, and lately there are signs something is afoot. There has been a lot of recent talk of T\u00fcrkiye turning over S-400 in exchange for relief from the Countering America\u2019s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act and readmission to the F-35 program. There has been no announcement on that, but there has been movement in other areas with big news coming out of Berlin.<\/p>\n
Der Spiegel recently reported that Germany\u2019s Federal Security Council, which meets in secret, is approving the sale of $368 million worth of heavy weaponry to T\u00fcrkiye, as well as reconsidering T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s request to purchase Eurofighter warplanes.<\/p>\n
An anonymous German official downplayed the decision to Middle East Eye yesterday, saying that naval weapons would be supplied, but the request for Eurofighters and tank parts would require guarantees on how T\u00fcrkiye uses them.That could be the case; it could also be someone doing damage control as like in the US arms sales to T\u00fcrkiye are often controversial politically.<\/p>\n
Either way, the timing is interesting and it\u2019s big news as it marks the end of a years-long unofficial embargo imposed by Western allies on T\u00fcrkiye, which has hampered its defense sector development. According to Nordic Monitor, \u201cAt the forefront of countries posing difficulties in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s procurement is Germany, which has been withholding export permits for firms supplying T\u00fcrkiye with much-needed engines and power systems for its domestic projects.\u201d Here\u2019s the International Institute for Strategic Studies:<\/p>\n
With development led by TAI, Turkiye has sought foreign partners, notably for aircraft design and local engine production. Following talks with a number of foreign partners, TAI contracted BAE Systems for aircraft design in 2017. Finding a partner for local engine production has proven more difficult; talks with Rolls-Royce, through a joint venture with Kale Group, have seemingly led nowhere. Instead, the MMU, now called Kaan, will be initially powered by US firm GE Aerospace\u2019s F110 engine, previously assembled by Turkish Engine Industries (TEI) for the F-16, while Turkiye explores options. However, as China and Russia have found, developing next-generation aircraft engines is no easy feat. There is no guarantee that a purely indigenous effort will be successful, and it is highly likely to be hugely expensive. Turkiye may need to revisit a foreign partnership to ensure the Kaan project meets its ambitions.<\/p>\n
Now, either Germany is acting independently or it got the green light from Washington. I would bet big on the latter. The question is, what did T\u00fcrkiye give up in return? It could simply be the S-400 or it could be cooperation in other areas such as Syria or Iran. There has recently been more noise about the US pursuit of a Kiev-Idlib axis against Russia, which would need T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s tacit support. Moscow seems to be taking notice as its armed forces have conducted airstrikes on 27 different locations across Idlib over the last four days.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s important to note that despite all the war of words between T\u00fcrkiye and Israel and overwhelming outrage in Turkiye against Tel Aviv, business between the two continues, just with a few new wrinkles.<\/p>\n
The biggest issue for T\u00fcrkiye continues to be the outlawed and despised Kurdish Worker\u2019s Party (PKK) and US support of it. Here too, though, we have signs of big developments.<\/p>\n
Journalist Amberin Zaman, who has strong Kurdish and American sources, claims at Al-Monitor that T\u00fcrkiye is seeking some sort of peace agreement with the PKK.<\/p>\n
Two of the sources said that Ocalan had been allowed recently to speak directly to the PKK leadership that is based in the Qandil Mountains in Iraqi Kurdistan. \u201cOcalan told them it was time to discuss laying down their arms,\u201d one of the sources said. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Amberin Zaman (@amberinzaman) October 10, 2024<\/p>\n
The report suggests that the main reason for the effort is to prevent Iran from reaching out to Kurdish fighters to destabilize T\u00fcrkiye during a possible escalation with Israel. Now why would Iran, which is up to its neck in problems with Washington and Tel Aviv, take the time to do that at such a moment?<\/p>\n
Either that\u2019s not the real reason T\u00fcrkiye is seeking rapprochement with the PKK or Iran views T\u00fcrkiye as part of the US-Israel axis which is threatening the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye has been at war with the PKK for the past decade and has largely pushed them into Syria and Iraq where they continue to do battle. Any deal would be quite the shocker, but if Erdogan and company see an opening for a larger victory, it wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see them go for it and save the fight against the Kurds for a later date.<\/p>\n
The rumors of a peace deal could also simply mean that Erdogan needs the support of the pro-Kurdish Peoples\u2019 Equality and Democracy Party in order to pass a new constitution that would allow him to run for another term.<\/p>\n
Russia<\/p>\n
Russia is in favor of the Zangezur Corridor, as one of Moscow\u2019s goals is to control transportation links from Dagestan to Zangezur, thereby guaranteeing Russia\u2019s access to Middle East markets and link up to the International North-South Corridor from Russia to India.<\/p>\n
But the devil is in the details.\u00a0The issue holding up talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan is Point 9 of the trilateral statement signed between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in 2020 following the Second Karabakh War, which reads:<\/p>\n
All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with a view to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control over transport communication shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service bodies of the FSS of Russia.<\/p>\n
Azerbaijan continues to insist upon this point, while Armenia no longer wants Russian border guards present, and Pashinyan argues for silly solutions like Russia monitoring the corridor from afar.<\/p>\n
It is now clear what the US-directed play has been all about in Armenia over the past year. To quickly recap:<\/p>\n
It was Armenia that moved peace talks to Western platforms, and it was during those meetings that Armenia agreed to officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
\nOnce Armenia did so (and PM Pashinyan declared so publicly), the die was cast. The region was (and is) recognized as Azerbaijani territory by the international community but was overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Armenians. Roughly 100,000 of them fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan blockaded the region for months and then moved militarily to assert control in September \u2013 an operation that resulted in hundreds of deaths.
\nDespite moving the negotiation process under the guidance of the West and publicly recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, the Pashinyan government has sought to lay all the blame for its loss at the feet of Russia.<\/p>\n
We can now see why. Armenian officials are arguing that since the 2020 agreement also included provisions about Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and their control over a corridor that ran from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, and since that all fell apart, the rest of the document is essentially null and void. But that telling omits the obvious point that the reason the Nagorno-Karabakh aspect of the agreement went by the wayside was because the Armenians agreed to recognize it as part of Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n
Such arguments coming from Armenia and its American backers prove that they are unsurprisingly not agreement capable and unserious about coming to a solution.<\/p>\n
Their true goal is to open the Zangezur Corridor under American control, and they continue to take small steps in that direction. Armenia continued its torpedoing of relations with Russia last week when it requested the removal of Russian border guards from the Armenian-Iranian checkpoint by January 1. Russia will comply. This development concerns Iran, which envisions Western guards moving into the place of the Russians.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Moscow keeps patiently reminding Armenian officials that they\u2019re likely making a big mistake by turning the country over to the US. Russia has not, however, responded with any economic measures despite Armenia being overwhelmingly dependent on Russia there. As Fitch Ratings notes, Armenia\u2019s economy relies significantly on Russia for both trade and energy. For example, Armenia also currently pays Russia $165 per thousand cubic meters of gas, well below the market price in Europe, and Russia is Armenia\u2019s number one trading partner. According to the Armenian government data, it accounted last year for over 35 percent of the South Caucasus country\u2019s foreign trade, compared with the EU\u2019s 13 percent share in the total.<\/p>\n
Russia is almost surely able to be patient on the above-mentioned point 9 of the trilateral agreement because it is confident that Azerbaijan will not proceed with a deal that leaves Moscow out in the cold (Azerbaijan and Russia are heavily intertwined economically and enjoy close relations). Indeed, Baku continues to insist that Yerevan agree to the deployment of Russian border guards along the corridor. That would obviously not be an item the Americans want to see included in any agreement.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nArmenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Oct. 8 CIS Heads of State Council meeting. Source: The Office of the Prime Minister of Armenia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Pashinyan is recently making statements about entrusting Zangezur\u2019s security to foreign private security forces, which again shows a disregard for the 2020 agreement and leads one to believe he\u2019s sowing the seeds for conflict that will almost certainly end badly for himself and Armenia.<\/p>\n
For the American neocons, what do they care? If they set Russia and Iran\u2019s backyard on fire and it somehow works out to their advantage, great; if not, they\u2019re playing with house money. Sadly, in this case that is the Armenian people. And if the neocons play their hand poorly, as they so often do, it will be Armenia that gets smashed while the Americans shuffle along looking for the next sucker.<\/p>\n
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