Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Blue Mockingbird, Melanotis caerulesces, Presa Los Zompanties, Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
Michelle stays home.
\nTrump to work the grill at McDonald\u2019s in Philly.
\nTrump\u2019s \u201cfascism\u201d.
\nBoeing borrows $10 billion, fights off junk status for now, faces break-up.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Look for the Helpers<\/p>\n
\u201cPower-company workers get standing ovation during Lightning\u2019s hurricane-delayed home opener\u201d [Orlando Sentinel]. \u201cThere was a standing ovation late in the second period and it wasn\u2019t for any of the Tampa Bay players. It was for a group of power-company workers from Vancouver who are assisting in recovery efforts. \u2018How about the ovation that the Vancouver linemen got when they showed them on the big screen?\u2019 Cooper asked. \u2018I\u2019m normally not looking up there a ton but that was a pretty moving moment for me. And it just shows you there\u2019s a lot of good out there. When people come out and help each other it does make you feel good.’\u201d \u2022 I\u2019m violating my own guidelines a little bit here, but what the powerline workers are doing is called \u201cmutual assistance,\u201d and I think that\u2019s how the workers see it (sure, overtime no doubt, structured by giant utilities to minimize slack. Nevertheless).<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (\u201cHelpers\u201d in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of \u201cthe communism of everyday life\u201d are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than thirty days to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-11.png\")
<\/p>\n
If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Known Unknowns of Election 2024\u201d [Wall Street Journal]. \u201cEven if there aren\u2019t any more October surprises, many factors could influence the outcome. These include turnout, a possible undercount of Trump supporters, the effect of the Trump campaign\u2019s advertising blitz against Ms. Harris on the transgender issue, and the movements of last-minute swing voters. Any of these known unknowns could prove decisive\u2014a reminder that voters, not pundits, decide elections.\u201d \u2022 Hmm.<\/p>\n
\u201cSuddenly, the Electoral College Is Posing a Problem for Trump\u201d [Slate]. \u201cTrump is, ironically, crashing into the same roadblock that has stymied Democrats for decades now: The Electoral College overvalues white votes at the expense of racial minorities, giving white voters considerably more influence over the presidential race\u2026. A few examples drawn from current demographic data: Latinos make up about 40 percent of California\u2019s population, and Trump appears to be making inroads with them there. But there is no chance that this trend will flip the heavily Democratic state toward Trump, so eroding Harris\u2019 edge with California Latinos will not help him reach the White House. Latinos also make up about 40 percent of Texas\u2019 population, yet Trump is essentially certain to carry the Lone Star State already, so additional votes from Texas Latinos won\u2019t matter to him. Florida is an increasingly diverse state, and Trump may win an eye-popping number of nonwhite votes there. But he is overwhelmingly likely to win it no matter what, so this feat would not clinch him a second term. The same dynamic applies to smaller states. Black voters make up about 36 percent of Mississippi\u2019s population, for instance, but winning over some of these voters will not boost Trump\u2019s overall chance of victory because he already has Mississippi locked down. Conversely, Asian Americans make up 10 percent of New Jersey and Washington state, but Harris has both in the bag. So it will be irrelevant to Trump if these Asian American voters defect to him. There are, of course, exceptions to this dynamic: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina all have large numbers of nonwhite voters, and all are swing states. But Harris\u2019 clearest path to victory remains a sweep of the famed tipping-point states\u2014Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin\u2014which historically vote the same way. If she carries this so-called blue wall, along with the single electoral vote of Omaha, Nebraska, she\u2019ll win the whole election. Pennsylvania in particular has emerged as the probable tipping-point state. That\u2019s why Harris and Tim Walz, her vice presidential nominee, are spending the final weeks with a campaign blitz in the Rust Belt. Current polling suggests that winning these states is pretty much mandatory. Any victories in the more diverse Sun Belt will probably be a bonus.\u201d \u2022 Entirely anecdotal, but an associate of mine tells me Black women he knows in California absolutely hate Kamala. And white women they know in Milwaukee (Milwaukee proper, not the burbs) absolutely love her (because of her performativity on abortion). One thing: Republicans, like Winston Wolfe, \u201csolve problems\u201d (though you may agree neither with the problem statement nor the solution). Like firing their elites (who then went and turned themselves into Democrats). Or recomposing the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. If fixing the electoral college is to their advantage, they will do it.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cDespite her call to \u2018do something\u2019 for Harris, Michelle Obama has yet to hit the campaign trail\u201d [NBC]. \u201cWith just 20 days until the election, Michelle Obama has worked behind the scenes to boost turnout in key swing states, but she has yet to schedule an official appearance for Harris since the Democratic National Convention. Two people familiar with the matter said she has expressed fresh concerns about security following two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump\u2026. Her low profile stands out after her rousing speech in August at the Democratic National Convention, when she implored members of her party not to get complacent about the November election and repeatedly urged voters to instead \u2018do something!’\u201d \u2022 So I guess Michelle doesn\u2019t believe Trump is a fascist?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cHarris peppered with questions by Charlamagne tha God\u2019s audience\u201d [The Hill]. \u201cThroughout the interview, Harris shared her position on topics such as reparations \u2014 which she said she supports studying \u2014 building up Black homeownership and the opportunity to grow generational wealth.\u201d \u201cStudy\u201d? Oh. More; \u201cHarris released an \u201cOpportunity Agenda for Black Men\u201d on Monday, but one caller asked her why she didn\u2019t do so sooner and why support for Black men is only sought out during election cycles. \u2018I\u2019ve been in this race about 70 days. You can look at all my work before those 70 days to know that this, what I\u2019m talking about right now, is not new and is not for the sake of winning this election,\u2019 Harris responded. \u2018This is about a long-standing commitment, including the work that I\u2019ve done as vice president and before, when I was senator.\u2019 Harris\u2019s time as a senator came up at another point in the interview when a caller from Nevada asked what she plans to do to address police brutality and its disproportionate impact on Black Americans. The vice president quickly pointed to her work on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) during her time in the upper chamber.\u201d \u2022 So a bill that never passed is the best Harris can do? \u201cFighting for,\u201d I suppose\u2026. <\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cKamala Harris\u2019 greatest weakness is her inauthentic self \u2014 and black Americans can see right through it\u201d [New York Post]. \u201cCharlamagne Tha God of \u2018The Breakfast Club\u2019 invited Vice President Harris for an audio-only town hall in Detroit featuring prerecorded questions from the audience. From the very first question, her believability came under scrutiny by Charlamagne. \u2018Folks say you come off as very scripted and like to stick to your talking points,\u2019 he said \u2014 and she promptly interrupted him by saying, \u2018Some people would call that disciplined.\u2019 Charlamagne continued, \u2018What do you say to the people that say you stay on the talking points?\u2019 \u2018I would say you\u2019re welcome!\u2019 Harris immediately responded.\u201d Translation: Voters are stupid. They just don\u2019t get it.. More: What summed up this interview was how she addressed a concern of a caller who questioned the motives behind sending money abroad in abundance when there are many pressing issues that remain here: \u2018We can do it all!\u2019 she claimed, unconvincingly.\u201d \u2022 Editorializing. But I doubt Kamala will #MintTheCoin (and it\u2019s clear to me how much capability we really have to do anything more than write apps and produce boutique weaponry, and that\u2019s before we get to what\u2019s happened to the workforce from Covid. Oh, and deliver stuff from China in boxes.<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cOpinion: Does Harris\u2019 Fox interview mean she\u2019s a conservative? Nope. She\u2019s just scared\u201d [USA Today]. \u201c[T]his week, [Kamala\u2019s] shaking things up and doing her first ever sit-down interview with Fox News. The interview will take place Wednesday with Fox News anchor Bret Baier. Baier has said that he won\u2019t treat Harris with kid gloves during their conversation, and that any editing of the interview will only be for \u2018timing\u2019 and that \u2018no topic is off the table.\u2019 Sounds promising. Kudos to Harris for agreeing to appear on a network shunned by most of her progressive base \u2013 and one that may ask her tough questions.\u201d \u2022 Going after Republican votes\u2026. <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cDonald Trump will \u2018work the fry cooker\u2019 at McDonald\u2019s in the Philly area this weekend\u201d [Philadelphia Inquirer]. \u201cThe former president will make the stop at a McDonald\u2019s in the Philadelphia area, the source said, but the exact location is still unclear\u2026. Trump has continuously claimed that Harris never worked at the fast-food chain, without evidence. He told a campaign crowd in Indiana, Pennsylvania last month that he wanted to work as a fry cook to \u2018see how it is.’\u201d \u2022 Allow me to hoist once more this insightful comment from alert reader Brian Beijer on August 29:<\/p>\n
Now, to [Kamala\u2019s] \u201cI did fries. And then I did the cashier\u201d. Not one of those workers respected the fries and cashier person. There was a begrudging respect for the drive thru cashier because they had to put up with so much grief (this word is out of respect for Yves). But, no one was really respected until they competently handled the grill during a rush hour. You earned real props after handling a bus or unexpected football team visit. I can totally understand why Kamala didn\u2019t put McDonald\u2019s on her resum\u00e8`, but I don\u2019t understand why she\u2019s reluctant to mention her experience there\u2026unless she was just a cashier\/fry person. Then, she never really got the experience of what working at McDonald\u2019s really offered.<\/p>\n
Trump doesn\u2019t even have to be good. All he has to do is actually feel the heat of the grill and show respect for workers by entering their world (and not with performative empathy and bullet points on the Twitter).<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cABC \u2018whistleblower\u2019 hoaxster returns with sloppy attempt to frame Tim Walz\u201d [Daily Dot]. A saga you may have followed here. \u201cThe account previously blew up for its claims it had proof an ABC whistleblower provided Vice President Kamala Harris questions before the presidential debate. [T]he proof never materialized.\u201d \u2022 The Daily Dot claims that Trump signal boosted Black Insurrectionist\u2019s claim, but gives no link or embedded Tweet. I can\u2019t find it. Readers?<\/p>\n
* * * <\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cDonald Trump\u2019s debts and financial ties are a threat to national security\u201d [Boston Globe]. \u201cHeavy personal debts, unsavory associates, murky foreign financial ties \u2014 any of them could be a reason a security clearance is denied. The rules are premised on the common-sense idea that those individuals are more vulnerable to blackmail or bribery, or simply lack moral character. The president, like all constitutional officeholders, is exempt from this requirement. The president\u2019s security clearance, as it were, is granted by the [stupid, untrustworthy, deplorable] electorate. Voters, though, have every reason to weigh in the voting booth the same kind of considerations that clearance-vetters in the government do when they\u2019re assessing potential federal workers: Can this candidate be trusted in a sensitive national security job? The answer in the case of former president Donald Trump is clearly no. If Trump were required to pass even the lowest level of federal security clearance, he couldn\u2019t.\u201d \u2022 That\u2019s terrible. Let\u2019s fix it! Clearly, the intelligence community should vet any President, maybe even all candidates.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cTrump accused of \u2018mimicking\u2019 infamous Nazi rally with Madison Square Garden event\u201d [Independent]. \u201cVeteran Democratic strategist James Carville claimed that Donald Trump\u2019s forthcoming rally at Madison Square Garden is mimicking a pro-Adolf Hitler Nazi event held at the venue more than 80 years ago.\u201d \u2022 Oh ffs. See, e.g., \u201cAddress at Madison Square Garden, New York City,\u201d Franklin Delano Roosevelt. We do\u2019n: \u201cFor twelve years this Nation was afflicted with hear-nothing, see-nothing, do-nothing Government. The Nation looked to Government but the Government looked away. Nine mocking years with the golden calf and three long years of the scourge! Nine crazy years at the ticker and three long years in the breadlines! Nine mad years of mirage and three long years of despair! Powerful influences strive today to restore that kind of government with its doctrine that that Government is best which is most indifferent.\u201d That\u2019s the stuff to give the troops, but we sure don\u2019t hear it from today\u2019s \u201cfighting for\u201d Democrats! Anyhow, I\u2019m seeing this meme \u2014 Madison Square Garden = Hitler \u2014 all over the place. It\u2019s so stupid. These people have lost their minds (just as badlly as that Black Insurrectionist dude, just on different tropes). Walter Kirn comments:<\/p>\n
How cunning it was of the wily Trump to forego becoming a fascist dictator in his first term and wait until he maybe won a second term<\/p>\n
Most power-mad monsters don’t have that kind of patience!<\/p>\n
\u2014 Walter Kirn (@walterkirn) October 14, 2024<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cFormer President Trump calls the \u2018enemy from within\u2019 more dangerous than any foreign entity\u201d [FOX]. I wish I could find the transcript on tnis, but I can\u2019t. Here are the quotes from Sunday Morning Futures FOX pulled out:<\/p>\n
Former President Trump explained how he would guard against bureaucrats undermining him as the potential next commander-in-chief if elected back to the White House.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have two enemies: We have the outside enemy, and then we have the enemy from within. And the enemy from within, in my opinion, is more dangerous than China, Russia and all these countries,\u201d Trump said in an exclusive interview on \u201cSunday Morning Futures.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cBut the thing that\u2019s tougher to handle are these lunatics that we have inside, like Adam Schiff \u2014 Adam \u2018Shifty\u2019 Schiff,\u201d Trump added. <\/p>\n
\u201cI call him the enemy from within,\u201d he continued. \u201cWhen you look at the danger he put our country in potentially with Russia \u2014 with a phony, made-up deal that he made up with Hillary and some bad people.\u201d\u201dThat started off as an excuse for why [Hillary Clinton] lost an election that a lot of people thought she should have won, because the polls indicated she might win,\u201d Trump noted.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd then she got beaten everywhere, virtually. When you look at that, and then they said, \u2018Ah, it was Russia,\u2019 they used it as an excuse, and then the fake news picked it up.\u201d<\/p>\n
So where\u2019s the lie? Here is alternative coverage\u2013<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cTrump Suggesting He\u2019d Use Military Against \u2018Enemy From Within\u2019 Sparks Alarm\u201d [Newsweek]. Again, I have no transcript:<\/p>\n
On Fox News\u2019 Sunday Morning Futures, Bartiromo asked Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, \u201cWhat are you expecting? Joe Biden said he doesn\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be a peaceful Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n
During a White House press briefing, Biden said last week that he is confident that the upcoming election will be \u201cfree and fair,\u201d but said he was concerned about the transfer of power being peaceful on account of Trump\u2019s words and actions following his loss in 2020.<\/p>\n
Trump responded, \u201cI think the bigger problem is the enemy from within\u2026We have some very bad people, some sick people, radical left lunatics. And it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military.\u201d<\/p>\n
At another point during the interview, he said, \u201cWe have two enemies. We have the outside enemy. And, and then we have the enemy from within. And the enemy from within, in my opinion, is more dangerous than China, Russia, and all these countries.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lambert here: So FOX doesn\u2019t quote the part about \u201chandling\u201d \u201cradical left lunatics\u201d with the National Guard (one of the \u201cenemies within\u201d) and Newsweek doesn\u2019t quote the material on RusssiaGate (the second of the \u201cenemies\u201d within). Some comments: I like \u201cenemies within\u201d a lot less than \u201cdeplorables,\u201d which I didn\u2019t like at all, even though both are dehumanizing; \u201cenemies within\u201d has a bad history. Further, the media reaction to Trump\u2019s remarks shows a pervasive habit of mind or trope by Democrats: Things have have happened are put on the same set of scales as things that might happen. RussiaGate happened; an election day round-up of bad actors might happen. Of course, the irony is that most of the \u201cradical left lunatics\u201d are already in DHS Fusion Center databases developed under Democrats, and all their online uttterances are carefully monitored by the Censorship Industrial Complex. As I keep saying, the fascist smorgasboard is a rich repast from which both parties partake freely, indeed greedily.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cPlaybook: How litigation is defining the election\u201d [Politico]. \u201cThe flurry of litigation is happening on all sides: For every DOJ lawsuit aimed at protecting voting access, sparking fury on the right, there are on many more being filed by conservatives looking to restrict access to voting and otherwise shape election procedures, said Wendy Weiser of the Brennan Center for Justice. \u2018We saw a little bit of it in 2020, but it has exploded,\u2019 she told us last night. \u2018They\u2019re using the courts to spread conspiracy theories, to put some veneer of legal belief to stoke conspiracy theories.\u2019 Consider what happened after the 2020 election: When Trump\u2019s campaign litigated its claims of a stolen election, some cases were thrown out by judges who said they should have gone to court earlier. They\u2019re not making the same mistake this time. The Harris campaign is already involved in dozens of lawsuits \u2014 one official we spoke with last night boasted about winning nine out of ten cases that have already been decided \u2014 while assembling what they are calling the \u2018biggest voter protection operation in presidential campaign history.’\u201d \u2022 Expect continued volatility, even after election day. Interesting if true:<\/p>\n
BREAKING: Biden’s former White House Counsel DANA REMUS \u2013who facilitated the FBI\/DOJ investigation of Trump at Mar-a-Lago and then helped cover up Biden’s own classified docs scandal \u2013is now running Kamala Harris campaign’s pre- and post-election LAWFARE operation against Trump<\/p>\n
\u2014 Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) October 15, 2024<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
PA: \u201cSalena Zito: In 2024, Everything Is Happening in Pennsylvania\u201d [RealClearPolitics]. \u201cThe first county I\u2019m looking at is Cambria County home of Johnstown. This is a county that three years ago was majority Democrat, now they\u2019re at almost 50,000 more registered Republicans\u2026. Luzerne County up by Scranton I would watch. Erie and Northampton \u2014 with high cost of living and inflation\u2026. I would give the edge to Trump just because I think the people that are in the middle of despair, in particular in the heavily Democrat area of the city of Erie, I\u2019m not sure they\u2019re turning up to vote. People have not seen them, they have not heard them. And everything else outside of Erie is Republican.\u201d Well, except for Philly and (to a lesser extent?) Pittsburgh. More: \u201cYou will see what\u2019s called the Frontier, which is sort of the Connecticut of Erie, the upper-middle-class suburbs. They don\u2019t, they don\u2019t care for Trump, but that\u2019s also part of the city.\u201d \u2022 The Frontier\u2026 Are any readers familiar with this locution?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Spook Country<\/p>\n
The Censorship Insdusrial Complex is very online:<\/p>\n
The term \u201cmisinformation\u201d picked up popularity around 2016.<\/p>\n
I wonder why \ud83e\uddd0 pic.twitter.com\/83FV365Uzh<\/p>\n
\u2014 The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) October 16, 2024<\/p>\n
Democrats en D\u00e9shabill\u00e9<\/p>\n
Well, possibly. Something to think about:<\/p>\n
Mark Halperin has better political sources than anyone in media. He now believes Donald Trump is likely to win. If that happens, Halperin predicts the psychological collapse of the Democratic Party \u2014 \u201cgreatest mental health crisis in the history of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n
(1:23) The State\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/YtMTq14T4u<\/p>\n
\u2014 Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 15, 2024<\/p>\n
Do note, however, that Trump has invaded the dreams of liberal Democrats (November 19, 2023). So there are indeed some mass psychological mechanisms at work (as in all of us).<\/p>\n
\u201cHow Alarmed Should We Be If Trump Wins Again?\u201d [Adam Gopnik, The New Yorker]. \u201cBut polarized nations don\u2019t actually polarize around fixed poles. Civil confrontations invariably cross classes and castes, bringing together people from radically different social cohorts while separating seemingly natural allies. The English Revolution of the seventeenth century, like the French one of the eighteenth, did not array worn-out aristocrats against an ascendant bourgeoisie or fierce-eyed sansculottes. There were, one might say, good people on both sides. Or, rather, there were individual aristocrats, merchants, and laborers choosing different sides in these prerevolutionary moments. No civil war takes place between classes; coalitions of many kinds square off against one another.\u201d But that\u2019s just the warm-up before the pitch, from which I could quote nearly anything, but this will do: \u201cShuttling between the comic-book villain and the grimacing, red-faced, and unhinged man who may be re\u00eblected President in a few weeks, one struggled to distinguish our culture\u2019s most extravagant imagination of derangement from the real thing. The space is that strange, and the stakes that high.\u201d \u2022 I don\u2019t love Trump, I really don\u2019t. But does Gopnik not think genocide is \u201cunhinged\u201d? Does Gopnick not think a proxy war with a nuclear power \u2014 a war we fomented, and are losing \u2014 is \u201cunhinged\u201d? If Gopnik got vaccinated \u2014 and you can be sure he did \u2014 the stuff in the syringe came from a program the \u201cunhinged\u201d orange man initiated. So what, exactly, is Gopnik so alarmed about that\u2019s more alarming than genocide and nuclear war? Walter Kirn comments:<\/p>\n
Treating the Trump candidacy as a hostile insurgency & his supporters as a cross between the Taliban, the Klan, & the Viet Cong feels to me like a conscience-clearing license for a very serious state crackdown & a permanent dilution of civil liberties<\/p>\n
Boy do I pray I’m wrong<\/p>\n
\u2014 Walter Kirn (@walterkirn) October 15, 2024<\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Transmission: H5N1<\/p>\n
\u201cIs it time to freak out about bird flu?\u201d [STAT]. \u201cIf, however, you are more familiar with the history of this form of bird flu, you might be getting anxious. You might be worried that no one has figured out how one of the infected individuals, who lives in Missouri, contracted H5N1. Or you might recall that the virus has killed half of the 900-plus people known to have been infected with it over the past 27 years. Above all, you might fret that the virus is now circulating in thousands of cows in the U.S., exposing itself to some unknowable portion of the more than 100,000 dairy farmworkers in this country \u2014 the consequences of which could be, well, disastrous. Ongoing transmission in cattle means that every day in this country, a virus that is genetically suited to infecting wild birds is being given the opportunity to morph into one that can easily infect mammals. One of these spins of the genetic roulette wheel could result in a version of H5N1 that has a skill that is very much not in our interest to have it gain \u2014 the capacity to spread from person to person like seasonal flu viruses do. So is this freak-out time? Or is the fact that this virus still hasn\u2019t cracked the code for easy access to human respiratory systems a sign that it may not have what it takes to do so? The answer, I\u2019m afraid, is not comforting. Science currently has no way of knowing all the changes H5N1 would need to undergo to trigger a pandemic, or whether it is capable of making that leap. (This important article lays out what has been learned so far about some of the mutations H5N1 would have to acquire.) The truth is, when it comes to this virus, we\u2019re in scientific limbo.\u201d \u2022 I say let\u2019s double down, roll the dice, and risk everything! But commentary:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/armstrong_freakout.png\")
<\/p>\n
Variants: Covid<\/p>\n
\u201cSARS-CoV-2 provides an unprecedented opportunity to watch evolution occur in real time\u201d [T. Ryan Gregory, ThreadReader.app]. \u201cSARS-CoV-2 provides an unprecedented opportunity to watch evolution occur in real time. It also happens to be showing the pervasiveness of many misconceptions about evolution, even among scientists with limited knowledge of evolutionary biology. Here\u2019s a list and explanations. \ud83e\uddf5\u201d<\/p>\n
Misconceptions about evolution on display with SARS-CoV-2:<\/p>\n
1. Typological thinking.
2. Variation seen as noise rather than signal.
3. Teleology.
4. Orthogenesis.
5. Not understanding how natural selection works.
6. Ignoring Orgel\u2019s second rule.
7. Myths about human evolution. <\/p>\n
Worth reading in full. Perhaps evolutionary biologists in the readership will chime in.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
Wastewater<\/p>\n
This week[1] CDC October 5<\/p>\n
Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-www-natl.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-3.png\")
<\/p>\n
Variants [3] CDC October 12<\/p>\n
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-natl.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-ed-natl.png\")
<\/p>\n
Hospitalization<\/p>\n
\u2605 New York[5] New York State, data October 15:<\/p>\n
National [6] CDC September 21:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-6.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Positivity<\/p>\n
National[7] Walgreens October 14:<\/p>\n
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Travelers Data<\/p>\n
Positivity[9] CDC September 16:
\nVariants[10] CDC September 16:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Deaths<\/p>\n
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28:<\/p>\n
Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl%CC%A7.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl.png\")
<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can\u2019t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!<\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.<\/p>\n
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the \u201ceverything in greenish pastels\u201d crowd has gotten to this chart.<\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants).<\/p>\n
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED down.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
There are no official statistics of interest today.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cThe $25B Boeing Problem\u201d [CEO Today]. \u201cBoeing has obtained a credit agreement valued at $10 billion with a group of prime financial institutions, which includes Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan. The Analysts from Bank of America indicate that Boeing is expected to raise between $10 billion and $15 billion in equity to preserve its investment-grade credit rating.\u201d<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cHas Boeing done enough to avoid the credit rating junk yard?\u201d [Financial Times]. \u201cBoeing is \u2018too big to fail in the eyes of the US government\u2018, said a second bondholder. \u2018However, it\u2019s not too big to become high-yield.’\u201d Ha ha! No indeed. More: \u201cOur major concern is that the longer this goes, the [more likely it is that] rating agencies will be forced to take some action.’\u201d<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cDaily Memo: Boeing\u2019s Breakup Is Not If, But How And When\u201d [Aviation Week]. Worth reading in full, especially if you play the ponies. \u201cTo be succinct, large commercial aircraft, and especially narrowbodies, are the future of cash generation.\u201d Which could put Boeing Defense Services on the chopping block. Except: \u201cWhat about divesting BDS as a whole? Many analysts and consultants see that as unlikely. For starters, the defense and space division obviously is full of enough money-losing fixed-price contracts to make it financially radioactive. Second, it is unlikely the U.S. executive branch would allow another large defense prime to buy it, considering monopoly concerns, while lawmakers could flinch at the prospect of a private equity buyer. Nevertheless, contracts can be sunsetted or sold off individually, and facilities shut down to achieve the same effect.\u201d And: \u201cRegardless of the path, Boeing\u2019s breakup from its current conglomerate state is a safe bet. \u2026 [T]he end result could be Boeing more in name only rather than the business model many people think of now.<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cEmirates orders more Boeing 777F freighters, sources say\u201d [Reuters]. \u201d Dubai\u2019s Emirates, one of the world\u2019s largest cargo carriers, is expanding its fleet of Boeing 777F freighters as it plans for a sharp increase in cargo trade, industry sources said. The order for more of the current-generation freighters emerged amid tensions between Emirates and Boeing over separate delays, but pre-dated Boeing\u2019s announcement on Friday that its future 777X jetliner series would slip by another year to 2026\u2026. Analysts note that delays in passenger planes and ongoing demand for dedicated freighter planes are not disconnected. Cirium Ascend head of global consultancy Rob Morris said demand for freighters was being supported by a shortage of passengers planes from Boeing and Airbus, since a large proportion of air freight travels in bellies of passenger jets. Average global cargo yields or unit revenues grew 12% in August, the highest annual increase in over two years, the International Air Transport Association said last week.\u201d \u2022 Easier to produce, less risk of one of \u2019em falls out of the sky. And a reach-around for Boeing on cash flow?<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cAfter Boeing, Airbus to slash 2,500 jobs amid ongoing financial losses\u201d [Business Standard]. \u201cThe Netherlands-headquartered Airbus is planning to cut up to 2,500 jobs within its defence and space division. This significant move aims to streamline the European aerospace giant\u2019s operations as it grapples with ongoing financial difficulties. According to reports, these job cuts, which represent around 7 per cent of the division\u2019s workforce, are expected to be implemented by mid-2026. While Airbus has not provided an official statement, the information comes amidst continued struggles in its defence and space sectors. Airbus has been facing substantial losses, particularly within its space systems division, where projects like OneSat have suffered from delays and increasing costs. In response, the company launched a wider efficiency review, code-named ATOM, aimed at addressing operational challenges and identifying cost-saving measures, according to AFP.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 74 Greed (previous close: 76 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.<\/p>\n
Zeitgeist Watch<\/p>\n
Personal risk assessment:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Could also be titled: \u201cPortrait of a Young Person Entering the Job Market.\u201d I truly dislike the cultural moment that valorizes nutty behavior like this (I can just see \u201cfounders\u201d putting stills from it on t-shirts for their employees). Also, I wonder if there was ever snow on that mountain. It looks like the surface of Mars (Hi Elon [waves]).<\/p>\n
Gallery<\/p>\n
Sending this out to Kelly Ortberg:<\/p>\n
‘The Scrapheap.’ (1944) In 1940, Stanley Spencer was commissioned by the War Artist\u2019s Advisory Committee to illustrate the valuable contribution made by the British shipbuilding industry and its workers to the war effort. He was sent by the Ministry of Information to the Kingston\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/CYFYJS2mcn<\/p>\n
\u2014 Richard Morris (@ahistoryinart) October 16, 2024<\/p>\n
Class Warfare<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Call Is Out for Mass, Simultaneous Strikes in 4 Years\u201d [WorkDay Magazine]. \u201cAt its annual convention in July, the American Federation of Teachers, which represents 1.8 million members, passed a resolution titled, \u2018Supporting The UAW\u2019s Call To Align Contract Expirations For May 1.\u2019 \u2026. This union is not alone. The American Postal Workers Union also passed a supportive resolution at its national convention in July. And Brandon Mancilla, the elected UAW Region 9A director, told me that UAW has also \u2018been having conversations with different healthcare unions\u2019 that are interested in joining. The union United Electrical Workers is also having \u2018active conversations\u2019 about the call for contract alignment, the union\u2019s general president, Carl Rosen, told me. Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA who called for a general strike to end the government shutdown in 2019, told me over text message, \u2018The call for aligning contract expirations and planning for a general strike is powerful in and of itself. The consciousness of the power of solidarity that grows from cross-sector organizing begins to change social order before feet hit the streets.\u2019 Not every effort to get formal support, though, has been successful. The National Education Association voted down a new business item supporting the alignment on the first day of its representative assembly, before the National Education Association Staff Organization went on strike.\u201d \u2022 How about the Longshoremen? Boeing\u2019s machinists?<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cHow ham radio endures \u2013 and remains a disaster lifeline \u2013 in the iPhone era|\u201d [ZDnet]. \u201cIn the aftermath of a catastrophe, ham radio operators play a vital role in relaying messages between disaster victims and their concerned friends and family members. These skilled volunteers use their equipment to establish communication networks, often when cell towers are down and internet access is unavailable\u2026. In a disaster, ham radio operators create self-organized networks to relay messages in and out of affected areas. \u2026. \u201d \u2022 Fun for the whole family! Get yourselves a license (along with your passport\u2026).<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MR:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/northern_lights.jpeg\")
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/p>\n
MR writes: \u201cNeither antidote nor plantidote, but wow! From last night, looking north from south shore of lake ontario outside Rochester, NY.\u201d For this time only, as a conceptual dodge that will allow me to post this photo, I will deem th plant-derived construct at lower right a plant. And weren\u2019t these Northern Lights pretty big and pretty far South? What\u2019s up with that? Disturbance in the force?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
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<\/div>\nThis entry was posted in Water Cooler on October 16, 2024 by Lambert Strether. <\/p>\n