By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/p>\n
Kind readers, thanks to so many of you for asking after me yesterday, when I had described my fall. In fact, I am, as I thought I would be, in form today. No sprain or tear, which is what I was most worried about (since my back is stiff as the best of times). A few twinges in my knee. Scrapes nicely scabbed over. The whole episode brings home to me how lucky I have been, not only in this particular episode, but generally: Many, many people have experienced more pain in their lifetimes than I ever have. \u2013lambert P.S. Also a hat tip to Big Pharma for the pills. <\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n
Back to the mimidae!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Tropical Mockingbird,Punto Sin Retorno, Ocotepeque, Honduras. \u201cImitando otras especies: 0:30 (Melanerpes aurifrons) 1:08 (Falco sparverius) 1:28 (Camptostoma imberbe) 2:00 (Piaya cayana) 2:08 (Rupornis magnirostris).\u201d Quite a virtuoso!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
New Trump\u2019s 2020 polling underestimates vs. margins in the Swing States today (map).
\nThe Feds launder migrants through NGOs to firms owned by the American gentry.
\nBoeing\u2019s stock.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Look for the Helpers<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not like introverts need help, of course\u2026.<\/p>\n
Omg this is the type of book club I can get behind!!! pic.twitter.com\/CbpRJWmDT7<\/p>\n
\u2014 Non-anxiety Magnet (parody) (@goesonrants) October 6, 2024<\/p>\n
\u2026. but it still can be nice.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (\u201cHelpers\u201d in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of \u201cthe communism of everyday life\u201d are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than forty days to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rcp_2024-10-04.png\")
<\/p>\n
If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error, Trump gained a few inches of ground in the trench warfare (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
The other day I muttered about making a map putting Trump\u2019s 2020 voting underestimates against Trump (or Kamala\u2019s) margins in Swing States. Hat tip to alert reader hk for doing the hard work and digging out the numbers. I did the easy part, which was making the handy map: <\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/270toWin_trump_margins.png\")
<\/p>\n
Legend: Numbers in Blue (Kamala) or Red (Trump) show the leading candidate. Numbers in orange show Trump\u2019s underestimates in 2020. Obviously, if the polls in 2024 are off by as much, and in the same direction, as the polls in 2020, this election looks very, very different (and, in fact, in the bag for Trump). But are they? Opinions differ (\u201cInfinite are the arguments of mages\u201d \u2013Ursula LeGuin).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: I am not a polling maven!<\/p>\n
\u201cCNN data guru declares Trump will win White House if he outperforms current polling by one point\u201d [FOX]. \u201cCNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said that the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House. \u2018We\u2018re talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world,\u2019 Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Friday.\u201d \u2022 Oh.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Asterisk on Kamala Harris\u2019s Poll Numbers\u201d [The Atlantic]. \u201cThe 2016 election lives in popular memory as perhaps the most infamous polling miss of all time, but 2020 was quietly even worse. The polls four years ago badly underestimated Trump\u2019s support even as they correctly forecast a Joe Biden win. A comprehensive postmortem by the American Association for Public Opinion Research concluded that 2020 polls were the least accurate in decades, overstating Biden\u2019s advantage by an average of 3.9 percentage points nationally and 4.3 percentage points at the state level over the final two weeks of the election\u2026. According to The New York Times, Biden led by 10 points in Wisconsin but won it by less than 1 point; he led Michigan by 8 and won by 3; he led in Pennsylvania by 5 and won by about 1. As of this writing, Harris is up in all three states, but by less than Biden was. A 2020-size error would mean that she\u2019s actually down\u2014and poised to lose the Electoral College.\u201d More: \u201c[Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute] told me that, in 2020, the people working the phones for Siena frequently reported incidents of being yelled at by mistrustful Trump supporters. \u2018In plain English, it was not uncommon for someone to say, \u2018I\u2019m voting for Trump\u2014fuck you,’\u201d and then hang up before completing the rest of the survey, he said. (So much for the \u2018shy Trump voter\u2019 hypothesis.) In 2020, those responses weren\u2019t counted. This time around, they are. Levy told me that including these \u2018partials\u2019 in 2020 would have erased nearly half of Siena\u2019s error rate.\u201d What if Trump voters are so disaffected that they lie about supporting Harris? Nobody seems to have mentioned that possibility. And: \u201c\u2018In 2016, the feeling was that the problem we had was not capturing non-college-educated white voters, particularly in the Midwest,\u2019 Chris Jackson, the head of U.S. public polling at Ipsos, told me. \u2018But what 2020 told us is that\u2019s not actually sufficient. There is some kind of political-behavior dimension that wasn\u2019t captured in that education-by-race crosstab. So, essentially, what the industry writ large has done is, we\u2019ve started really looking much more strongly at political variables.\u2019 If Trump outperforms the polls once again, it will be because even after all these years, something about his supporters remains a mystery.\u201d \u2022 Perhaps the Republican and Democrat voters are fundamentally different not along ideological lines but in terms of capability. Republicans, after all, hated their party leadership and overthrew it. Democrats have done no such thing. Perhaps that level of commitment carries over to turnout (though I grant this possibility wouldn\u2019t apply to undecided or irregular voters, unless they thought this capability worthy of emulation). One might speculate that Trump\u2019s \u201cfight, fight, fight!,\u201d and continued presence on the campaign trail despite not one but two assassination attempts feeds into this propensity.<\/p>\n
\u201cCan we trust the polls this year?\u201d [VOX]. Various: \u201cIt has been getting harder because of Trump\u2019s ability to turn out the kinds of voters many polls have trouble capturing.\u201d If these \u201ckinds\u201d of voters are irregular or disaffected, that would mean that Trump is making \u201cour democracy\u201d work better than Democrats. More: \u201cThe phrase I heard most in my conversations was a worry about \u2018solving for the last problem\u2019 or \u2018fighting the last battle.\u2019 In other words, lessons have been learned, but will those lessons apply this time around? In 2016, for example, pollsters addressed some of the reasons they overestimated Mitt Romney\u2019s performance in 2012 but missed that state-level surveys were overrepresenting college graduates. That miss ended up artificially boosting Hillary Clinton\u2019s support, especially in the Midwest battleground states that proved decisive.\u201d And a list of the worries: Nonresponse bias, unlikely and late-deciding voters, hard-to-poll subgroups (approached by looking crosstab results that \u201ccan yield conclusions with margins of error much larger than those of a poll\u2019s topline results\u201d). And tips: Look at the sample size, methodology, firm, margin of error, and stay skeptical.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo, you\u2019re sure the presidential race will be close?\u201d [Roll Call]. \u201cRemember, polls are based on turnout assumptions, and if Harris generates stronger turnout among younger voters, voters of color, former Republicans, and college-educated whites, she could outperform the polling.\u201d \u2022 I\u2019m doubtful. I\u2019m seeing two swing states where voters meet the \u201ccrawl over broken glass\u201d turnout test. Both sets of voters are Trump voters. The first is PA, where Trump was almost assassinated in Butler. The second is NC, where Trump voters in WNC may feel they have been abandoned (and disrespected) by the Biden Administration\u2019s response to Helene. Now, NC cuts both ways, because those Trump voters, motivated though they be, simply may not be able to reach the polls (the Post Office isn\u2019t getting many absentee ballots right now, for example). However, if Republicans successfullly frame the Biden Administration\u2019s response to Milton as similar to the response to Helene, then WNC sentiment may spread to Georgia, another swing state hit hard by Helene, or even go national. And I think the Democrat counter-messaging on abortion is preaching to the choir.<\/p>\n
\u201cPolling isn\u2019t broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges\u201d [ABC]. Report from the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research in May: \u201c[Cameron McPhee, chief methodologist for SSRS} told me the industry has moved toward agreement that multi-mode approaches are the best way to get a more representative sample. She stressed that it\u2019s not that one mode is better, but rather a combination is \u2018better than the sum of its parts.\u2019 For instance, one SSRS survey experiment saw improved response rates for state-level surveys that recruited respondents by various means, including postcard or SMS text message, and gave respondents six potential access points to respond: URL, QR code (directing them to the survey), text, email, a phone number for respondents to call (inbound dialing) and SSRS reaching out to them by phone (outbound dialing).\u201d \u2022 I wonder if the different recruitment mode affects the response. I might not be \u201cthe same person\u201d answering a call as I am when making a considered response to email.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Realignment and Legitimacy<\/p>\n
\u201cA Troubled Place\u201d [Christopher F. Rufo and Christina Buttons, CIty Journal] (Charleroi, PA). This is well worth reading in full. It pains me to quote the Manhattan Institute, but they went and got the story, credit due. Here is the nut graf: \u201cThe basic pattern in Charleroi has been replicated in thousands of cities and towns across America: the federal government has opened the borders to all comers; a web of publicly funded NGOs has facilitated the flow of migrants within the country; local industries have welcomed the arrival of cheap, pliant labor. And, under these enormous pressures, places like Charleroi often revert to an older form: that of the company town, in which an open conspiracy of government, charity, and industry reshapes the society to its advantage\u2014whether the citizens want it or not.\u201d And: \u201cThe best way to understand the migrant crisis is to follow the flow of people, money, and power\u2014in other words, to trace the supply chain of human migration.\u201d \u2022 So this is \u201cour democracy.\u201d I wondered who was driving where migrants would relocate (though I\u2019m sure some is spontaneous): The (Democrat-leaning and -funded) NGOs. And all to service the American gentry, too (making them the real problem, what a surprise). Clamp down on \u201clocal industries\u201d and problem solved.<\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
Lambert here: CDC\u2019s wastewater map should have been updated by Friday at 8:00pm. This is Tuesday. It hasn\u2019t been.<\/p>\n
Wastewater<\/p>\n
This week[1] CDC September 23<\/p>\n
Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-3.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-ww-natl-2.png\")
<\/p>\n
Variants [3] CDC September 28<\/p>\n
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 28<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-variants-natl-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-cdc-ed-natl-3.png\")
<\/p>\n
Hospitalization<\/p>\n
\u2605 New York[5] New York State, data October 7:<\/p>\n
National [6] CDC September 14:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-ny-hospitalization-nyc-3.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-hospitalization-natl.png\")
<\/p>\n
Positivity<\/p>\n
\u2605 National[7] Walgreens October 7:<\/p>\n
\u2605 Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/covid-walgreens-positivity-states-4.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cleveland-positivity-oh-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Travelers Data<\/p>\n
Positivity[9] CDC September 16:
\nVariants[10] CDC September 16:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-positivity-travelers.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-variants-travelers.png\")
<\/p>\n
Deaths<\/p>\n
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28:<\/p>\n
Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-positivity-natl%CC%A7.png\")
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/covid-cdc-death-ed-natl.png\")
<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!<\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.<\/p>\n
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). <\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants).<\/p>\n
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED down.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 72 Greed (previous close: 70 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 67 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 8 at 1:57:20 PM ET.<\/p>\n
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Oil Supply\/Price. \u201cConflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices\u201d [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 180. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) \u2022 Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don\u2019t?<\/p>\n
Photo Book<\/p>\n
Looks like a chip:<\/p>\n
A striking aerial photo of the Nippon Steel works in Japan<\/p>\n
Brings to the fore the very real environmental consequences of our insatiable use of materials<\/p>\n
Photo from Territorio pic.twitter.com\/W2p8jhlShQ<\/p>\n
\u2014 Philip Oldfield (@SustainableTall) October 8, 2024<\/p>\n
Zeitgeist Watch<\/p>\n
Nice smile on that guy:<\/p>\n
Reposting this in the light of the imminent vote on AD \u2013 a Times columnist saying the quiet but out loud, that old, dying & disabled people *should* be killed prematurely \u2013 to save us the cost of caring for them.<\/p>\n
If that doesn\u2019t cause pause for thought, I don\u2019t know what will. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr Rachel Clarke (@doctor_oxford) October 7, 2024<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cThe blogosphere is in full bloom. The rest of the internet has wilted\u201d [Guardian]. \u201cLike many of us, he realised that what came to be known as the blogosphere could be a modern realisation of J\u00fcrgen Habermas\u2019s idea of \u201cthe public sphere\u201d because it was open to all, everything was discussable and social rank didn\u2019t determine who was allowed to speak. But what he \u2013 and we \u2013 underestimated was the speed and comprehensiveness that tech corporations such as Google and Facebook would enclose that public sphere with their own walled gardens in which \u201cfree speech\u201d could be algorithmically curated while the speakers were intensively surveilled and their data mined for advertising purposes.\u201d \u2022 Well worth a read. And allow to me beg everyone wjho can turn on their RSS feed to do so; RSS is great, and if the right vertical is populated by RSS, RSS is more effective than search, at least for covering daily beats.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SR:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/rabbit_brush.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
SR writes: \u201cMore rabbit brush.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png\")
<\/p>\n
If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!\n<\/p>\n
![\"Print](\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n