{"id":9007,"date":"2025-07-04T18:04:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T18:04:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uang69.id\/?p=9007"},"modified":"2025-07-04T18:04:52","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T18:04:52","slug":"200pm-water-cooler-10-1-2024-naked-capitalism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uang69.id\/?p=9007","title":{"rendered":"2:00PM Water Cooler 10\/1\/2024 | naked capitalism"},"content":{"rendered":"


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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/p>\n

Readers, we will have a Live Blog of tonight\u2019s Vice-Presidential debate. Doors open at 8:30pm ET; the debate proper starts at 9:00pm.<\/p>\n

I also had a scheduling debacle, so I\u2019ll be playing catchup for a bit, here. \u2013lambert<\/p>\n

Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n

Return to the mimidae!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Blue Mockingbird, Yecora, Km 261, Sonora, Mexico.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n

Vance-Walz debate.
\nEffects of Helene on North Carolina election.
\nBoeing and Longshoremen strikes..<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Politics<\/p>\n

\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n

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2024<\/p>\n

Less than forty days to go!<\/p>\n

Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages:<\/p>\n

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This week\u2019s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn\u2019t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, \u201c2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP\u201d on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala\u2019s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Vance-Walz debate:<\/p>\n

Once again, doors open for the Live Blog at 8:30pm! Personally, I expect this debate to be more interesting than the Presidential debate, given the logorrhea of the previous combatants. But Vance has written a book, and Walz\u2019s wife, also a teacher, had 40 students on their high school debate team, so maybe something rubbed off.<\/p>\n

\u201cJD Vance doesn\u2019t think he needs debate prep to defeat Tim Walz\u201d [Politico]. \u201c\u2018We have well developed views on public policy so we don\u2019t have to prepare that much,\u2019 Vance said in a Teamsters press call on Wednesday morning. \u2018We feel a lot more confident and frankly, you don\u2019t have to prepare if you don\u2019t have to hide what you say.\u2019 His statement was in many ways exactly why Republicans \u2014 and especially Trump \u2014 continue to support him: He\u2019s pithy, plainspoken and gets spirited with the media. And unlike Trump, he stays relentlessly on message and is known as an agile debater.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cWant to Check That Fact? For V.P. Debate Viewers, Just Scan the Code\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cCBS News, host of Tuesday\u2019s vice-presidential matchup between Senator JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz, is using technology to try something new. A QR code \u2014 the checkerboard-like, black-and-white box that can be scanned by a smartphone \u2014 will appear onscreen for long stretches of the CBS telecast. Viewers who scan the code will be directed to the CBS News website, where a squad of about 20 CBS journalists will post fact-checks of the candidates\u2019 remarks in real time. The code will appear only on CBS; viewers who tune in on a different channel will not see it. (Nearly every major network will simulcast the debate, starting at 9 p.m. Eastern.) But it is a novel approach to guide viewers, already accustomed to watching TV while hovering over a smartphone or laptop, to supplemental journalistic material elsewhere.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Would be nice if users could select from a menu of QR codes, but whatever.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

NC: \u201cHelene adds stress to election in North Carolina\u201d [Axios (SlayTheSmaugs)]. \u201cNorth Carolina, one of the most important battlegrounds in the race for president, is at the center of the destruction from Hurricane Helene. Beyond the physical and emotional toll of the storm, Helene suddenly has created massive hurdles for voters and election officials just 35 days before the Nov. 5 election. \u2018Voting won\u2019t be a priority for a lot of people,\u2019 said Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina\u2026. Early in-person voting begins in North Carolina on Oct. 17, a deadline that may be difficult for officials in some parts of the state to meet, especially if any of their polling locations were damaged or destroyed. \u2018There are small staffs in a lot of these places whose attention is obviously going to be elsewhere,\u2019 [Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina] said \u2018[Many] won\u2019t be able to go to work this week and prepare for early voting and to handle the mail-ballots that are coming in.’\u201d \u2022 Confirming, or at least supporting, my views expressed here yesterday. This too\u2013<\/p>\n

NC: \u201cHow Helene\u2019s destruction could affect voting in North Carolina\u2019s election\u201d [News & Observer]. \u201cIn the aftermath of Hurricane Helene\u2019s destruction in Western North Carolina, concerns have emerged about whether residents affected by the storm will be able to cast their ballots in the November election. Disruptions to the postal service, destruction of polling places, missing or damaged IDs and more could all pose challenges to voters with only 36 days left until the election. \u2018This is all a cascading series of disasters,\u2019 Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County Board of Elections, said.\u201d \u2022 I should have added that mail-in ballots would be disrupted; fifty lashes with a wet noodle for Lambert. NOTE: Blue Buncombe County, home of Asheville, is the only county named.<\/p>\n

PA: \u201cPoll shows a tight race in Pennsylvania, with warning signs for Harris among older voters\u201d [Politico]. \u201cHarris is winning 49 percent of likely voters, compared with 47 percent for Trump and 2 percent for other candidates, the poll done by a bipartisan team for AARP found. Three percent are undecided\u2026. Biden was down 5 percentage points overall in that April survey. Among voters aged 18 to 49, he was behind by 1 point; she is now ahead by 14. He was losing independents by 6 points; she is winning them by 9. With Democrats, women, suburban voters, rural voters and even voters without a college degree, she is outperforming Biden. There is a major voting bloc, though, among which she has slipped: seniors. Harris is losing voters aged 65 and older by 7 points, compared with 1 point for Biden. \u2018Harris\u2019 biggest weakness is older voters. It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind,\u2019 said Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose firm, Fabrizio Ward, helped conduct the AARP survey and also polls for the Trump campaign. The economy appears to be a big reason why older voters prefer Trump to Harris. For voters aged 50 and up who ranked inflation and high prices as a top issue, Trump has a 54-point lead.\u201d \u2022 Older voters are the most reliable, too.<\/p>\n

Syndemics<\/p>\n

\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n

Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Wastewater<\/p>\n

This week[1] CDC September 23<\/p>\n

Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):<\/p>\n

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Variants [3] CDC September 28<\/p>\n

Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21<\/p>\n

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Hospitalization<\/p>\n

New York[5] New York State, data September 27:<\/p>\n

National [6] CDC September 7:<\/p>\n

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Positivity<\/p>\n

National[7] Walgreens September 30:<\/p>\n

Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21:<\/p>\n

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Travelers Data<\/p>\n

Positivity[9] CDC September 9:
\nVariants[10] CDC September 9:<\/p>\n

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Deaths<\/p>\n

Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21:<\/p>\n

Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21:<\/p>\n

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LEGEND<\/p>\n

1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n

2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n

NOTES<\/p>\n

[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!<\/p>\n

[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.<\/p>\n

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.<\/p>\n

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.<\/p>\n

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). <\/p>\n

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!<\/p>\n

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.<\/p>\n

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.<\/p>\n

[10] (Travelers: Variants).<\/p>\n

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.<\/p>\n

[12] Deaths low, ED down.<\/p>\n

Stats Watch<\/p>\n

Employment Situation: \u201cUnited States Job Openings\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe number of job openings rose by 329,000 to 8.040 million in August 2024 from an upwardly revised 7.711 million in July and above market expectations of 7.655 million.\u201d<\/p>\n

Employment Situation: \u201cUnited States Job Quits\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe number of job quits in the US fell to 3.084 million in August of 2024 from the downwardly revised 3.243 million in the previous month, the lowest since August of 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n

Supply Chain: \u201cUnited States LMI Logistics Managers Index\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe Logistics Manager\u2019s Index in the US jumped to 58.6 in September 2024 from 56.4 in August, pointing to the highest growth rate in the logistics sector in two years. The overall index has now increased for ten consecutive months, providing strong evidence that the logistics industry is back on solid footing.\u201d \u2022 Effect of ILA strike not mentioned.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing: \u201cUnited States Manufacturing PMI\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 47.3 in September 2024 from a preliminary of 47, but remained the lowest since June 2023. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, with both output and new orders falling sharply due to weakened demand and political uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Supply Chain: \u201cEast and Gulf coast ports strike, with ILA longshoremen walking off job from New England to Texas, stranding billions in trade\u201d [CNBC]. \u201cApproximately 50,000 ILA union longshoremen were walking off the job at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports from New England to Texas starting at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday after failing to reach an agreement with ports ownership on a new contract, the union\u2019s first strike since 1977. Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly move through the U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports. The International Longshoremen\u2019s Association, the largest maritime union in North America, rejected an offer from the port management group USMX on Monday that included a wage hike over six years near 50%.\u201d<\/p>\n

Supply Chain: \u201cWhite House left with few good options as dockworkers walk out\u201d [CNN]. \u201cFor weeks, Cabinet-level officials across an array of agencies have been keeping close tabs on the negotiations between the International Longshoremen\u2019s Association and a consortium of companies managing ports along the East and Gulf coasts. White House officials on Friday met with representatives from the consortium, the US Maritime Corporation, to encourage the association to stay at the negotiating table. When it comes to brokering a potential deal, labor experts say the White House has just two tools: Using the bully pulpit and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, which would force the longshore workers to get back on the job. President Joe Biden has sent a clear message that he has no plans to do the latter. \u2018No,\u2019 Biden told reporters Sunday when asked whether he would intervene in a potential strike. \u2018Because it\u2019s collective bargaining, and I don\u2019t believe in Taft-Hartley.\u2019 Breaking the strike would be a politically dangerous move for Biden as his vice president, Kamala Harris, runs to succeed him in the Oval Office. Without taking that move, there\u2019s not much else the White House can do.\u201d \u2022 Too bad about the railroad workers, but it wasn\u2019t an election year.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing Needs to Take a Cue From UPS and Pay Its Strikers\u201d [Bloomberg]. \u201cBoeing Co.\u2019s labor negotiators should have paid more attention to how Carol Tom\u00e9, the chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., handled talks with its union last year. UPS workers were itching to strike, and the company was inevitably going to have to give hefty raises. Instead of digging in over a couple of percentage points on the salary increases, risking a strike and creating more animosity with its workforce, Tom\u00e9 relented to the union\u2019s demands. The higher labor costs have squeezed margins, and investors registered their dismay with a 27% drop in the share price since the tentative deal was announced in July last year. UPS customers, though, were grateful that Tom\u00e9 avoided the disruption a strike would have caused. Tom\u00e9\u2019s calculation was that even if she pushed the negotiations to the point of a strike, the company would have ended up in the same place \u2014 a big payout and costly changes such as adding air conditioning to new delivery vehicles. The only difference would have been the worker ill will and angry customers that a strike would have provoked. Automakers, on the other hand, let labor talks break down, and they ended up agreeing to record pay increases after a costly six-week strike. Boeing has dug in its heels with striking machinists who have shut down factories for more than a week, and it\u2019s not working. The planemaker will more than likely have to meet workers\u2019 demands to end this damaging and costly strike. Customers are upset that the delays in plane deliveries will worsen. Suppliers are left in the dark about how much they should cut back on production, which hurts their workers and finances. Repairing the culture of quality and safety on the factory floor is in jeopardy. The strike is only accelerating Boeing\u2019s cash burn, spurring Moody\u2019s Ratings to consider cutting the company\u2019s debt rating.\u201d \u2022 <\/p>\n

Manufacturing: \u201cOver 40 Airlines Could Be Flying Boeing Jets With Risky Rudder Parts\u201d [Jalopnik]. \u201cThe National Transportation Safety Board warned over 40 foreign airlines on Tuesday that their Boeing 737 planes may be fitted with potentially dangerous rudder components. The agency identified 271 parts that could fail and jam the rudder control system. The NTSB discovered the issue while investigating a February landing incident involving a United Airlines flight arriving at Newark Liberty International Airport.\u201d \u2022 Whoops.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Hreed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 1 at 1:46:30 PM ET.<\/p>\n

Gallery<\/p>\n

For Alma-Tadema stans:<\/p>\n

Long before cinema, there was “cinematic” painting.<\/p>\n

These paintings are centuries old, but look like stills from a high-budget movie epic.<\/p>\n

Here are some you haven’t seen before \u2014 that will blow your mind\u2026 \ud83e\uddf5 pic.twitter.com\/wdltpBWHY3<\/p>\n

\u2014 Culture Critic (@Culture_Crit) September 27, 2024<\/p>\n

News of the Wired<\/p>\n

\u201cDo All Problems Have Technical Fixes?\u201d [Communications of the ACM]. \u201cThe unspoken foundational claim is not that computing technology confers certain benefits, a pragmatic claim, and a matter of fact, but that it carries normative value, that it\u2019s good; in particular, our tech is good, and therefore should be out there in the world. This is tricky.\u201d \u2022 By Betteridge\u2019s Law\u2026. <\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CC:<\/p>\n

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CC writes: \u201cNoticed this on the post at the bottom of the steps at my daughter\u2019s house. Momma Spider on the post and her bunch(? Highly technical description), just below her above the handrail.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n

Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n

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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!\n<\/p>\n

\"Print<\/div>\n<\/div>\n