{"id":7780,"date":"2025-07-07T23:06:25","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T23:06:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uang69.id\/?p=7780"},"modified":"2025-07-07T23:06:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T23:06:26","slug":"200pm-water-cooler-8-30-2024-naked-capitalism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uang69.id\/?p=7780","title":{"rendered":"2:00PM Water Cooler 8\/30\/2024 | naked capitalism"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente<\/p>\n

Have a good Labor Day, everyone!<\/p>\n

Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n

Catbirds are in the Mimidae species (!), like mockingbird and thrashers. Readers have said they like the mimicry, so hopefully MacCaulay Library has enough recordings to keep us all satisfied, at least for a time.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Black Catbird, Camino de grava entre el Corchito y Estero de Chicxulub, Progreso, Yucat\u00e1n, Mexico.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n

New RCP averages show race neck-and-neck, plus new Covid charts show positivity improvement.
\nKamala and joy.
\nTrump needs a campaign reset.
\nUnions and worker power.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Politics<\/p>\n

\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

2024<\/p>\n

Less than one hundred days to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The good news for Trump is that Kamala\u2019s post-convention \u201cbounce\u201d seems to have been slight. The good news for Kamala is Trump\u2019s continued deterioration in North Carolina, plus taking a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations \u2014 in fact, all the leads, top to bottom \u2014 are within the margin of error. <\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Kamala (D): How it started:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Kamala (D): How it\u2019s going:<\/p>\n

Vote for Joy poster pic.twitter.com\/nakdg1W7XI<\/p>\n

\u2014 Katrina vandenHeuvel (@KatrinaNation) August 29, 2024<\/p>\n

Wowsers. Katrina vandenHeuvel.<\/p>\n

Kamala (D): \u201cREAD: Harris and Walz\u2019s exclusive joint interview with CNN\u201d [CNN]. \u201cBy contrast, the former president has none of that. And so \u2014 one, I \u2014 I \u2014 I am so proud to have served as vice president to Joe Biden. And, two, I am so proud to be running with Tim Walz for president of the United States and to bring America what I believe the American people deserve, which is a new way forward, and turn the page on the last decade of what I believe has been contrary to where the spirit of our country really lies.\u201d \u2022\u00a0One decade is 2014. Obama: 2016 \u2013 2014 = 2; Trump 2020 \u2013 2016 = 4; Biden: 2024 \u2013 2020 = 4. 2 + 4 = 6, or 60% of ten. I too would love to turn the page on the last decade. Unfortunately, the Democrats have been in charge for 60% of it. And what\u2019s with the \u201cI \u2014 I \u2014 I\u201d, especially on that topic? Don\u2019t tell me Kamala grew up with a stutter too! Oh, and an eighteen minute interview, with a second interviewee present, is not at all impressive.<\/p>\n

Kamala (D): \u201cDonors Quietly Push Harris to Drop Tax on Ultrawealthy\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cThe VCs for Kamala group \u2014 which includes Reid Hoffman, a founder of LinkedIn; Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures; Ron Conway, a well-known investor; and the billionaire Chris Sacca \u2014 surveyed its members about various public policy issues. Roughly 75 percent of respondents agreed with the statement \u201ctaxing unrealized capital gains will stifle innovation,\u201d according to a document viewed by The New York Times. The survey otherwise showed support for Ms. Harris\u2019s agenda\u2026.Some progressives have so far said they are unworried about signs that Ms. Harris is adopting more moderate rhetoric about economic issues, maintaining that she has been a key partner in crafting Mr. Biden\u2019s agenda.\u201d Commentary:<\/p>\n

if your bathroom look like this you don’t need to worry about the capital gains tax pic.twitter.com\/kHBr3SAGA1<\/p>\n

\u2014 Analisa Packham (@analisapackham) August 29, 2024<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Trump (R): \u201cArlington National Cemetery worker was \u2018pushed aside\u2019 in Trump staff dispute but won\u2019t seek charges\u201d [Associated Press]. It was \u201cassault,\u201d now it\u2019s \u201cpushed aside.\u201d So it goes. The details are in the story. Commentary:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Oh, I believe some things; it\u2019s just that the process of ascertainment\/discernment is far more laborious than it once was. And Bauer has the press dead to rights on WMDs, Steele, and Russian bot farms. <\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Trump (R): \u201cTrump says he wants to make IVF treatments paid for by government or insurance companies if elected\u201d [NBC News]. \u2022 This is actually clever, since it dings Walz while doing a good thing that will please suburban women. Useful in the debates, too. So, just like not taxing tips, Kamala will steal the idea in 10, 9, 8 counting\u2026.<\/p>\n

Trump (R): \u201cTrump tries to reset his campaign after brutal month\u201d [Politico]. \u201cDespite the endorsement and moments of discipline, the past weeks showed how Trump is most often guided by his own political instincts that are beyond the scope of what his advisers or allies can influence.\u201d \u2022 Yes, it\u2019s impossible for the campaign stuff to turn Trump into somebody he isn\u2019t. Not that this is a strategy per se, but where I would begin is with Trump himself: Trump, love him or hate him, is somebody we feel that we know. He may be \u2014 often is \u2014 a [glassbowl]. But he\u2019s a genuine [glassbowl]. Kamala, I would say, is different. It\u2019s not that the public don\u2019t know her, though it\u2019s hard to see how this can be so, when she had three years in office as Biden\u2019s heir apparently. It\u2019s that Kamala herself does not know who she is. The \u201cIndian\u201d\/\u201dBlack\u201d\/Mixed\/Woman of Color vascillation is an example of this (which is why, in my view, Trump misplayed this aspect of her career by forcing it under the DEI rubric). All this would need to be translated into lietmotifs for Trump to incorporate into his riffing; the staff\u2019s insistent tnat a teleprompter dominate him is wrong, personally and tactically.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Kennedy (I): Susie Wiles could do worse than bring whoever produced this ad from Shanahan onto the Trump campaign proper:<\/p>\n

My team never sleeps \ud83d\ude02 pic.twitter.com\/THH4MiMMMI<\/p>\n

\u2014 Nicole Shanahan (@NicoleShanahan) August 29, 2024<\/p>\n

The ad codes young, \u201cTrump Derangement Syndrome\u201d is an extremely online trope, and TDS out-weirds \u201cweird.\u201d<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

\u201cThe \u2018far-left agenda\u2019 is exactly what most Americans wants\u201d [Bernie Sanders, Guardian]. Fine use of anaphora. \u201cWhen we talk about guaranteeing healthcare for all as a human right, we\u2019re talking about the ability of every one of us, regardless of income, to go to a doctor when we\u2019re sick and not go bankrupt when we come out of the hospital. We\u2019re talking about the right to change jobs without fear of losing our healthcare. Does that really sound radical to you?\u201d \u2022 But Kamala\u2019s not advocating that, and if she were, she would\u2019t deliver on it. The Democrats have form. More telling is what Sanders does not mention: Anti-trust. So long, Lina!<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

PA: \u201cPennsylvania may be a problem for Harris\u201d [Silver Bulletin]. \u201cIf [Harris is] only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November\u2026. It\u2019s possible that RFK\u2019s dropout and endorsement of Trump is having more effect in Pennsylvania and the other Rust Belt states than elsewhere, which have older, whiter and more disaffected electorates. And as I said, it\u2019s also possible that all of this is noise and\/or that the model is overdoing the convention bounce adjustment. But while Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris\u2019s VP, I can\u2019t help but wonder what her numbers would look like with Josh Shapiro instead.\u201d \u2022 I still say no difference, and that Trump won Pennsylvania when Crooks tried to whack him.<\/p>\n

Syndemics<\/p>\n

\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n

Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Transmission: H5N1<\/p>\n

New H5N1 wastewater site:<\/p>\n

Are we missing H5N1 cases? @CDCFlu has rolled out a new dashboard looking for signs of H5N1 bird flu in sewersheds around the country<\/p>\n

Only one wastewater detection through latest week, in a sample collected from Douglas County in Colorado pic.twitter.com\/CYev9elYLJ<\/p>\n

\u2014 Alexander Tin (@Alexander_Tin) August 28, 2024<\/p>\n

Looks like good news, but before I did a happy dance, I\u2019d want to lay a map of dairy herds against this map of sewer sytems.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n

Wastewater<\/p>\n

\u2605 This week[1] CDC August 26:<\/p>\n

Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Variants\u2605 [3] CDC August 31<\/p>\n

Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 17 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hospitalization<\/p>\n

\u2605 New York[5] New York State, data August 29:<\/p>\n

National [6] CDC August 10:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Positivity<\/p>\n

\u2605 National[7] Walgreens August 27:<\/p>\n

\u2605 Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 24:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Travelers Data<\/p>\n

\u2605Positivity[9] CDC August 12:
\n\u2605 Variants[10] CDC August 12:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Deaths<\/p>\n

\u2605 Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC August 24:<\/p>\n

\u2605 Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC August 24:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

LEGEND<\/p>\n

1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n

2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n

NOTES<\/p>\n

[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.<\/p>\n

[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.<\/p>\n

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.<\/p>\n

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Again, an uptick, but the state as a whole is still down. Makes me wonder if there\u2019s something happending at New York airports. Let\u2019s watch carefully. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)<\/p>\n

Lambert here: Since things are bad out on the West Coast, I went looking for California hospitalization data to compare with New York\u2019s, and found this: \u201cDue to changes in reporting requirements for hospitals, CDPH is no longer including hospitalization data on the CDPH dashboard. CDPH remains committed to monitoring the severe outcomes of COVID-19 and influenza, including the impact on hospitals. CDC\u2019s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) will remain open to accept data, and CDC and CDPH strongly encourage all facilities to continue reporting.\u201d Thanks, Mandy!<\/p>\n

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.<\/p>\n

[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.<\/p>\n

[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.<\/p>\n

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn\u2019t even run back to 1\/21\/23, as it used to, but now starts 1\/1\/24. There\u2019s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn\u2019t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that\u2019s why the shape of the curve has changed.<\/p>\n

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?<\/p>\n

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.<\/p>\n

[12] Deaths low, ED up.<\/p>\n

Stats Watch<\/p>\n

Inflation: \u201cUnited States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cTha annual increase in the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, remained at 2.6% for a third straight month in July of 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n

Personal Income: \u201cUnited States Personal Income\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cUS personal income rose by 0.3% from the previous month to $24.015 trillion in July of 2024, up from a 0.2% increase in the previous month and above market forecasts of a 0.2% rise. Compensation of employees rose by 0.3%, same as the previous month, as wages and salaries grew further (0.3% vs 0.2% in June) and supplements to wages and salaries maintained the same growth rate as June at 0.3%.\u201d<\/p>\n

Manufactiuring: \u201cUnited States Chicago PMI\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, rose to 46.1 in August 2024, up from 45.3 in the prior month and surpassing market estimates of 45.5. The latest reading still shows a significant decline in Chicago\u2019s economic activity for the ninth consecutive month, although it remains comfortably above the year-to-date average of 42.9.\u201d<\/p>\n

Supply Chain: \u201cThe union representing dockworkers at ports from Maine to Texas says they are \u2018at an impasse\u2019 with employers, and the real negotiations haven\u2019t started yet. The deadlock is one sign of the high stakes in the dealing over a new labor contract that is taking place under threat of a strike at some of the biggest ports in the U.S.\u201d [Wall Street Journal]. \u201c[O]fficials at the International Longshoremen\u2019s Association are due to meet next week in New Jersey to go over their wage demands and to set the table for a walkout that could begin Oct. 1. The ILA is pushing for a 77% increase for workers over six years, far more than the 32% increase the International Longshore and Warehouse Union won for its members at West Coast ports last year. Employers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports are offering half that, according to a person familiar with the talks.\u201d <\/p>\n

* * *
\n* * *<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 60 Greed (previous close: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 30 at 1:37:12 PM ET.<\/p>\n

Class Warfare<\/p>\n

\u201cWorkers Deserve Real Power. Unions Aren\u2019t the Best Way to Get It\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cIf the goal is to place workers on a level playing field with employers so that they can advocate their own interests effectively and share fully in the prosperity they help to create, then getting more workers into those unions is not the only way. It\u2019s not even the best way. A more effective strategy is to ensure a tight labor market by constraining who employers can hire \u2014 in particular, by making it harder to offshore production to other countries or bring workers from other countries into the United States. Employers fight against such constraint tooth and nail because it forces them to improve the quality of the jobs they offer, to retain workers and draw people off the sidelines to fill open positions, and to invest in boosting productivity. A recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis illustrates this effect. Firms lamenting labor shortages and hiring challenges for routine manual tasks tend to invest more and achieve larger productivity gains. Senator JD Vance has articulated the point well, warning that support for the free movement of labor across national borders \u2018decimates the bargaining power of workers\u2019 by offering employers less expensive alternatives, while constraining access to inexpensive labor is \u2018a tech-forward argument. If you can\u2019t constantly do the same things with cheaper and cheaper labor, your economy is forced to innovate.\u2019 Nor is America\u2019s existing union model, codified by the Depression-era National Labor Relations Act, the only form a vibrant labor movement might take. In most of Europe, for instance, unions operate at the industry level rather than having to fight for recognition company by company.\u201d <\/p>\n

News of the Wired<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Secret Inside One Million Checkboxes\u201d [EIEIO.games]. \u201cOn June 26th 2024, I launched a website called One Million Checkboxes (OMCB). It had one million global checkboxes on it \u2013 checking (or unchecking) a box changed it for everyone on the site, instantly. My expectations for the site were very low and very wrong. I thought hundreds of players would check thousands of boxes \u2013 instead, 500,000 players checked over 650,000,000 boxes in the two weeks that I kept the site online.\u201d \u2022 I can\u2019t really excerpt the story. But the kids are alright.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Bug in the Computer Bug Story\u201d [JSTOR]. Everybody knows the story, so picking up: \u201cThe real bug in this narrative, as Shapiro points out, is that \u2018bug\u2019 in this sense actually goes back to the late nineteenth century. The Supplement to the Oxford English Dictionary\u2019s fourth definition of the noun \u2018bug\u2019 reads \u2018a defect or fault in a machine, plan, or the like.\u2019 The OED cites the March 11, 1889, Pall Mall Gazette as a source: \u2018Mr [Thomas] Edison\u2026 had been up the two previous nights discovering a \u2018bug\u2019 in his phonograph\u2014an expression for solving a difficulty, and implying that some imaginary insect had secreted itself inside and is causing all the trouble.\u2019 And then there\u2019s also a letter, written by Edison in 1878, in which he refers to \u201c\u2018Bugs\u2019 as such little faults and difficulties are called.\u201d By the publication of the 1934 Webster\u2019s New International Dictionary, the third definition for the noun bug was: \u201ca defect in an apparatus or its operation.\u2019 Computer people adopted a term in use for more than half a century and brought it into the digital world. \u201d<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AF:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

AF writes: \u201cBlack Swallowtail caterpillar munching on parsley.\u201d<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert\u2019s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

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\"Print<\/div>\n<\/div>\n