By Lambert Strether of Corrente<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n
Readers have been so happy with the mockingbirds I\u2019m going to keep doing them. Now entering Day Three of Week Three!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Long-tailed Mockingbird, 3 km E Pacoa Beach, Guayas, Ecuador. \u201cSong. Seen. Desert all green with herbs owing to \u2018El Nino.’\u201d A lot going on here!<\/p>\n
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In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
Irrational exuberance among the Democrats.
\nIntroducing Walz.
\nBoeing\u2019s Starliner debacle.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
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2024<\/p>\n
Less than one hundred days to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/rcp_2023-08-02.png\")
<\/p>\n
Drops for Trump across the board, including a 2.5% drop nationally (almost outside the margin of error, ha ha), and a blue triangle on the mao for the first time.<\/p>\n
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* * *<\/p>\n
The Campaign Trail:<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201c\u201dBringing back the joy\u201d: Kamala Harris\u2019 rally blows away JD Vance\u2019s weird appearance across town\u201d [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. I didn\u2019t know Marcotte was still typing: \u201c[T]he Harris\/Walz rally felt like a rousing speech by Coach Eric Taylor of \u2018Friday Night Lights\u2019 combined with the front row at Coachella. The cheers were so loud that I regretted not bringing my earplugs. The mood was jubilant, even though folks had to wait hours in the heat and humidity to even get into the place. The campaign claimed over 12,000 people showed up, which is not an exaggeration. Even as Harris and Walz gave the final speeches of the evening, the line to get into the overflow room \u2014 just to watch the event on TV \u2014 went on for multiple city blocks.\u201d Always hire a hall that\u2019s too small; good advance work by the Harris team. More: \u201c\u2018Thank you for bringing back the joy,\u2019 Walz said, to a thunderous reception. A simple line, but it brought the house down because of the plain-spoken truth Walz has swiftly become famous for. \u2018Joy\u2019 was the word of the night. People in the stands practically vibrated with it. In the air was a visceral hope that this campaign would be the end of the long national nightmare that is Trump and the MAGA movement.\u201d \u2022 \u201cOur long national nightmare\u201d is surely a reference to this Gerald Ford quotation, following Nixon\u2019s Watergate defenestration. (Maybe Kamala could adapt this line from Ford\u2019s speech: \u201cI am acutely aware that you have not elected me as your President candidate by your ballots, and so I ask you to confirm me as your President with your prayers.\u201d I wonder if Marcotte thought of that\u2026). Anyhow\u2013<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201d Democrats Lost Their Minds Over Tim Walz, Kamala Harris\u2019 New Midwestern Running Mate\u201d [HuffPo]. \u2022 Indeed. But they would have lost their minds over Shapiro, too. After all, who doesn\u2019t love an IDF volunteer?<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cAxelrod: A Lot Of \u2018Irrational Exuberance\u2019 Around Kamala Harris, \u2018It Is Absolutely Trump\u2019s Race To Lose’\u201d [RealClearPolitics]. From a CNN transcript: \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was going to look like. Now people feel like there\u2019s a chance.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Investopedia, \u201cIrrational Exuberance: Definition, Origin, Example\u201c: \u201cIrrational exuberance refers to investor enthusiasm that drives asset prices higher than those assets\u2019 fundamentals justify. The term was popularized by former Fed chair Alan Greenspan in a 1996 speech, \u201cThe Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society.\u201d The speech was given near the beginning of the 1990s dot-com bubble, a textbook example of irrational exuberance.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Flipping the textbook open to another page\u2013<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Irrational Analysis of David Axelrod\u201d [MaShrChing, Daily Kos]. \u201cWhy would he be throwing a bucket of cold water on D voter enthusiasm?\u201d \u2022\u00a0Proving Axelrod\u2019s point\u2026. <\/p>\n
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Walz:<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cA blank slate\u201d [Morning Consult]. \u201cNearly 3 in 5 voters nationwide (57%) said they\u2019d never heard of Walz\u2026. That gives Walz, and campaign operatives on both sides of the aisle, plenty of room to try to move his numbers in the right or wrong direction. Walz and his party are trying to frame him as a so-called normie who has passed common-sense legislation with Democratic partners in the legislature, while Republicans have leaned into attacks branding him as a radical leftist that makes the top of the Democratic ticket the most extreme in history.\u201d We saw the same process whereby a candidate is \u201cintroduced\u201d with Vance. Now we are seeing it with Walz. Since everything is like high school, the process is at the very least a hazing ritual. But in Minnesota: \u201cAccording to our surveys conducted over the past three months, a solid 55% of voters approve of Walz\u2019s job performance in Minnesota, which is more educated and leans further left than neighboring upper Midwest states Michigan and Wisconsin. The good news is that some of the groups north of Walz\u2019s overall approval rating \u2014 18- to 34-year-olds, liberals, moderates, Black voters, Hispanic voters and Americans who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 \u2014 are all groups that Biden had underperformed with this election cycle before he dropped out last month. They also all happen to be the types of voters that Harris has polled better among in recent weeks. The bad news is that the worst-performing groups for Walz all look like the worst-performing groups for Democrats in general: whites without a college degree, conservatives, Republicans and voters who backed Trump in 2020. Those groups of voters over in Pennsylvania, are also more likely to approve of Gov. Shapiro, the other VP finalist, especially Trump \u201820 voters and Republicans, at 29% and 30%, respectively. All of which is to say that the data bears out the notion that \u2018do no harm,\u2019 the so-called first rule of vice presidential picks, won out here for Harris. Given a choice between sticking with what appears to be working for her personally or changing things up, she chose the former.\u201d \u2022 Plenty of people challenge the notion that a \u201cfavorite son\u201d as VP (here Shapiro in PA) has any impact at all. I challenge the notion that Shapiro would have helped in PA; I think the events in Butler have put the PA Republicans on a war footing, and they will do whatever it takes to win the state (including crawling over broken glass).<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cGov. Tim Walz doesn\u2019t own a single stock\u201d [Axios]. \u201cWalz doesn\u2019t own a single stock, according to financial disclosures and confirmed by a spokesperson. Same goes for his wife Gwen, per tax filings. His disclosures, both from his final year in Congress and his time as Minnesota governor, also show no mutual funds, bonds, private equities, or other securities. No book deals or speaking fees or crypto or racehorse interests. Not even real estate. The couple sold their Mankato, Minnesota, home after moving into the governor\u2019s mansion, for below the $315k asking price). Their only investment assets appear to be via state pensions, including teacher pensions. This lack of investment is highly unusual for elected officials. Particularly high-profile ones vying for federal office.\u201d \u2022 Maybe Pelosi can give him some insider stock tips (i.e., Walz\u2019s personal virtue in this regard is not relevant compared to the real issue: the systemic cesspit that is the Beltway, which is bipartisan). It\u2019s Third World political thinking to imagine that \u201cgood people\u201d in positions of authority will solve systemic corruption (\u201cIf men were angels\u2026\u201d).<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): Counter-oppo:<\/p>\n
Fun fact: when he was president, Donald Trump appointed then-Governor Tim Walz to his national Council of Governors.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s going to be pretty hard for Republicans to call this guy \u201cextreme.\u201d pic.twitter.com\/H6fnQu1Q2z<\/p>\n
\u2014 Sawyer Hackett (@SawyerHackett) August 7, 2024<\/p>\n
(Given that the account is a Democrat strategist, the original. \u2013Lambert the Careful.)<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cTim Walz\u2019s China Connection Explained\u201d [Newsweek]. \u201cIn 1989, Walz earned a B.S. in social science education from Chadron State College in his native Nebraska. According to the Lincoln Journal Star, Walz also took classes in East Asia Studies at the University of Houston in 1985. Following his graduation, the Minnesota governor and former Congressman spent approximately one year teaching high school in China as part of Harvard University\u2019s WorldTeach program. Walz was among the first government-sanctioned groups of American educators to teach in China.\u201d \u2022 Good, right? Unless there\u2019s oppo in the backstory?<\/p>\n
Kamala (D): \u201cRepublicans Resurface Tim Walz\u2019 1995 Mugshot as Attacks Heat Up\u201d [Daily Beast]. \u2022 I\u2019ll say again here what I said in Links: \u201cIf the DUI led to sobriety, which it seems to have done, then I don\u2019t see an issue. A.A. says: \u2018There but for the grace of God go I.’\u201d (Of course, if Walz was running on a \u201cNever touched a drop of liquor\u201d platform, that would be different. Now, there are technical issues here: Presumably this came up in Holder\u2019s vetting? And was considered and dismissed? If not, bad staffwork by the Harris campaign.<\/p>\n
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Trump (R): \u201cArizona Republican becomes first fake elector to plead guilty for role in Trump scheme\u201d [Politico]. \u201cAn Arizona Republican who falsely claimed to be a legitimate presidential elector for Donald Trump \u2014 part of a sweeping effort by Trump and his allies to subvert the 2020 election \u2014 has pleaded guilty for her role in the scheme. Lorraine Pellegrino, one of 11 Arizona Republicans who falsely posed as Trump\u2019s electors that year, accepted a guilty plea to a single charge for filing a \u201cfalse instrument\u201d \u2014 the fraudulent Electoral College certificate. The state charge was one of several she faced for allegedly joining in a conspiracy to corrupt Arizona\u2019s election results. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes charged the 11 fake electors, as well as several top Trump allies, in a broad indictment in April. Trump himself was not charged in the Arizona case, but he was identified by a state grand jury as an unindicted coconspirator. Trump was also charged federally and in Georgia with felonies arising from his fake elector scheme and other efforts to overturn Joe Biden\u2019s victory. Pellegrino\u2019s plea deal is the second victory in the Arizona case in as many days for Mayes, a Democrat. Another one of the 18 defendants, former Trump campaign attorney Jenna Ellis, began cooperating with prosecutors this week in exchange for a deal to dismiss the charges she faced. Ellis similarly cooperated with prosecutors last year in the Georgia case.\u201d \u2022 I\u2019ll say again: Of all the lawfare, the elector cases are the only cases with the potential to hole the Trump campaign below the waterline. Why? Because unlike the business records and classified documents cases, the elector cases affect civilians: dull normals who signed up because they believe the theory of the case that was put to them.<\/p>\n
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MO: \u201cBush\u2019s loss raises questions for progressives: 5 takeaways from Tuesday\u2019s primaries\u201d [The Hill]. \u201c[Cori] Bush\u2019s primary loss was also the latest victory for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the pro-Israel lobbying organization that has increasingly flexed its muscles in primaries over the last couple of years. AIPAC\u2019s super PAC spent big to unseat her in the primary, reportedly throwing more than $8 million into the race. The group had also spent millions to elevate Westchester County Executive George Latimer in the race for Bowman\u2019s seat in New York\u2019s 16th Congressional District, fueling progressive outrage. The group\u2019s opposition to Bush came in response to her vocal criticism of Israel\u2019s war against Hamas, the U.S.-designated terrorist organization ruling Gaza. She was one of just a few House members who opposed a resolution that expressed support for Israel last year, and when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress last month, Bush called it \u2018sickening that Congress gave him a standing ovation.\u2019 As Bowman was unseated, Bush called AIPAC a \u2018threat to Democracy\u2019 and accused the group of working to \u2018silence the voices of progress and justice.’\u201d \u2022 Unfortunate. We need more Senators who slept out of their cars. Looks like Mearsheimer\u2019s \u201cIsrael Lobby\u201d thesis (PDF, worth a read) is correct. (I\u2019d speculate that the \u201cIsrael Lobby\u201d thesis could be integrated into Ferguson et alia\u2019s \u201cinvestment theory of party competition\u201d with Israel being an especially large, albieit offshore, industry.<\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *d<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.<\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveling off. Doesn\u2019t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.<\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) An optimist would see a peak.<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Slowing. Comment on the Cleveland Clinic:<\/p>\n
Why is the Cleveland Clinic building a new facility for a professional basketball team? These hospitals are not ‘nonprofits’ they are ridiculously profitable monopolies with an endless cash gusher to point at whatever they want. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 29, 2024<\/p>\n
Ka-ching.<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn\u2019t even run back to 1\/21\/23, as it used to, but now starts 1\/1\/24. There\u2019s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn\u2019t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that\u2019s why the shape of the curve has changed.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. <\/p>\n
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED up.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
There are no official statistics of interest today.<\/p>\n
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Shipping: \u201cShipping magnates are ploughing their big profits in recent years into new investments, but not necessarily on the water\u201d [Logistics Report, Wall Street Journal]. \u201cMany are buying up news outlets, real estate and even soccer clubs, the WSJ\u2019s Costas Paris reports, in a sign of the flood of cash that has poured into the sector since the global Covid pandemic and recent disruptions at the Suez Canal. The earnings of the world\u2019s top 10 container lines more than quadrupled in 2021 and 2022 to an average of $158 billion a year. Shipping owners often go on buying sprees when they are flush with cash, typically investing in modernizing their fleets. But a rush of orders raises the specter of a surplus of oceangoing capacity, prompting some shipowners to diversify their holdings.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Economy: \u201cIn the data that matters most, so far it\u2019s a slowdown, not recession\u201d [Axios Macro]. \u201cThe National Bureau of Economic Research\u2019s business cycle dating committee is the official arbiter of when economic expansions stop and recessions begin. The group waits until \u2018sufficient data\u2019 is available before making the call to avoid any backtracking. That means the official recession call won\u2019t come until after it has already begun or \u2014 in the case of the pandemic recession \u2014 until it is already over. The committee puts the most weight on two indicators. The first is payrolls, which show the economy is still adding jobs, though at a slower clip. On average, 274,000 jobs per month were added in the second quarter of 2023. That cooled to 168,000 last quarter, a still-healthy rate of job gains. The NBER\u2019s second major recession indicator is real personal income growth excluding transfers (that is, adjusted for inflation and excluding income from government programs like Social Security and unemployment benefits). That has been positive in six of the last eight months, notching a 0.4% rise in May and 0.1% in June. It has, however, decelerated from last year\u2019s breakneck pace. It rose a whopping 0.8% in Q1 2023 and 0.2% in the second quarter of this year. Two other indicators emphasized by the committee show activity is still growing. Consumer spending is rising. Real spending increased 0.6% in the most recent quarter \u2014 above the 0.2% seen in the same period a year ago.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Bezzle: \u201cThe Real Wolf of Wall Street Sales Script\u201d [The Follow Up]. \u201cAnd at last, we have the secret weapon: \u2018Fair enough?\u2019 This is one of the most powerful words in selling. Chris Voss (hostage negotiator) has said \u2018fair\u2019 is the \u2018single most powerful word in any negotiation.\u2019 It worked in sales back then and still works in sales today.\u201d \u2022\u00a0News you can use!<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing Starliner Update: NASA Considers Tapping SpaceX to Bring Astronauts Home\u201d [Newsweek]. \u201cNASA is considering partnering with SpaceX to bring its astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, back home due to ongoing concerns about Boeing\u2019s Starliner capsule \u2014 despite Boeing\u2019s assurance that the spacecraft is capable of the task. In a call with reporters Wednesday, Steve Stich, NASA\u2019s commercial crew program manager, said that mission control has still not determined a return date for the crew and confirmed the space agency is exploring the use of SpaceX\u2019s Crew-9 Dragon as a backup plan. \u2018Our primary option is to return Butch and Sunny on Starliner. However, we have done the requisite planning to ensure we have other options open. We have been working with SpaceX to ensure they are ready to respond with Crew-9 as a contingency,\u2019 said Stich.\u201d \u2022 Oh.<\/p>\n
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Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 24 Exreme Fear (previous close: 20 Extreme Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 7 at 12:56:04 PM ET.<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cChemical \u2018waves\u2019 used to encode words as Morse code\u201d [Chemistry World]. \u201cThe chemical waves were generated in traditional round bottom flasks with reactants mixed by a magnetic stirring plate. \u2018When all of the reactants had been added, the chemical waves began,\u2019 says Howlett. \u2018This was monitored by manually taking regular samples and measuring the chemical concentrations by liquid chromatography. A plot of these chemical concentrations shows waves and these waves were assigned meaning, such as a letter.\u2019 The scientists managed to communicate using recognisable formats such as Morse code and nucleic acid sequences. To encode a word in Morse code, they carried out a single, continuous reaction where oscillating waveforms were produced over multiple hours. \u2018We initially found reaction conditions which produced two distinct wave types and ran a chemical reaction where we switched between these conditions with precise timing,\u2019 explains Howlett. \u2018Measuring the chemical concentrations produced a pattern of waves which could be translated by Morse code into a word.\u2019 In a similar experiment, they simulated RNA-like instructions, assigning each waveform to a nucleobase. \u2018This demonstrates that with access to a wide range of waveforms, you can encode much higher levels of information,\u2019 says Howlett.\u201d \u2022 Hmm. I wonder if something out there is already trying to send us a message using a similar approach. Mayhe the Orcas? \u201c\u2026 \u2013 \u2014 .\u2013. -.-.\u2013 -.-.\u2013 -.-.\u2013\u201d<\/p>\n
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Carla:<\/p>\n
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Carla writes: \u201cJuly kitchen window.\u201d I stan for Carla\u2019s kitchen windows!<\/p>\n
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