By Lambert Strether of Corrente<\/p>\n
Patient readers, my liquid brunch gave me a case of the slows. More to come! \u2013lambert<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Common Nightingale, El Estrecho PNat\u2013Punta Camorro, C\u00e1diz, Andaluc\u00eda, Spain.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
(1) Crooks remains an enigma.<\/p>\n
(2) Unelecting Biden: irresistable force, immovable object.<\/p>\n
(3) Republican National Convention and J.D. Vance.<\/p>\n
(4) How to sing.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Look for the Helpers<\/p>\n
\u201cAfter a National Anthem Flub, Singer Says She\u2019s Going to Rehab\u201d [New York Times]. \u2022 Here is a wonderful thread in response that does not mock the singer, but explains how to sing:<\/p>\n
Most of where it all starts to go wrong is the posture. Like buildings or well written policy \u2013 if the supports aren\u2019t stabilized, the whole thing just collapses on itself. She should stand with legs shoulder width apart, square her shoulders, and bring the mic up not head down\/2<\/p>\n
\u2014 Chalis Montgomery (@TheChalis) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
(The thread is gigantic, so click through for an image of the complete thread.) Do we have readers who sing, who can comment?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (\u201cHelpers\u201d in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of \u201cthe communism of everyday life\u201d are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza). \u2013><\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump Assassination Attempt<\/p>\n
\u201cExclusive: Secret Service ramped up security after intel of Iran plot to assassinate Trump; no known connection to shooting\u201d [CNN]. \u201c\u2018Secret Service learned of the increased threat [from Iran] from this threat stream,\u2019 the official told CNN. \u2018NSC directly contacted USSS at a senior level to be absolutely sure they continued to track the latest reporting. USSS shared this information with the detail lead, and the Trump campaign was made aware of an evolving threat. In response to the increased threat, Secret Service surged resources and assets for the protection of former President Trump. All of this was in advance of Saturday.’\u201d \u2022 So the operation at Butler was above baseline? Really?<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than four months to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/rcp_2024-07-12.png\")
<\/p>\n
Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump\u2019s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden \u201cbuzz\u201d (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Unelecting Biden:<\/p>\n
The Calendar<\/p>\n
\u201cDNC says no virtual voting to nominate Biden will begin before August\u201d [The Hill]. \u201cIn a letter to members of the DNC Rules Committee, obtained by The Hill, co-chairs of the committee wrote, \u2018we have confirmed with the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic National Convention that no virtual voting will begin before August 1.’\u201d \u2022 Meanwhile, this is how DNC chair Jaime Harrison is spending his time:<\/p>\n
Nate is correct. Jamie is lying. This is so weird. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) July 17, 2024<\/p>\n
\u201cScoop: How the DNC plans to run out the clock for Biden\u201d [Axios]. \u201cThe DNC\u2019s current plan is to train state party chairs next week on how to conduct the electronic voting in a secure way. The window for voting is likely to open on July 29 and conclude by Aug. 5, according to people familiar with the matter. If the working plan for a \u2018virtual roll call\u2019 holds, Biden just has to outlast his party\u2019s critics for about two more weeks\u2026. Some Biden advisers think Biden can run out the clock on the uprising within the party, as long as he survives just a few more days. Media attention already has shifted from Biden after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on Saturday. The selection of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as Trump\u2019s running mate will further divert attention from Biden. Congressional Democrats say their concern over Biden\u2019s candidacy has taken a backseat since Trump was shot. Hours before the shooting in Butler, Pa., Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) paid a visit to Biden, but neither side gave much of a readout. Schumer called it a \u2018good meeting.’\u201d<\/p>\n
Electeds<\/p>\n
Patient readers: This entire section really ought to go into a post as a timeline; an overly dynamic situation evolved out from under me! Worth a reader to see the players, and also to see the birth, short life, and death of a sternly worded letter (and the calcuations that led to its early demise). These people are as twisty as corkscrews!)<\/p>\n
\u201cScoop: Biden rebellion resurfaces on Capitol Hill\u201d [Axios]. \u201cA letter [more below] circulating among congressional Democrats argues that there is \u201cno legal justification\u201d for an early virtual roll call after Ohio moved its filing deadline past the date of the Democratic convention. \u2018We respectfully but emphatically request that you cancel any plans for an accelerated \u2018virtual roll call\u2019 and further refrain from any extraordinary procedures that could be perceived as curtailing legitimate debate,\u2019 it says\u2026. Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Mike Quigley (D-Ill) and Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) told Axios they plan to sign onto the letter. Quigley and Ryan have both publicly called on Biden to withdraw. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), who told Biden he should drop out during a call with Hispanic Caucus members on Friday, will sign the letter as well, his spokesperson told Axios. One House Democrat told Axios they have received the letter and are considering signing on, and a senior aide to another House Democrat said their boss will sign on. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) [more below], who told Biden on a Progressive Caucus call last Saturday that he worries the president is being shielded from bad news, has been circulating the letter to colleagues, according to one lawmaker.\u201d \u2022 We\u2019ll see how many sign and how soon. Dogs barking from their kennels are not very impressive.<\/p>\n
\u201cBiden Group Therapy\u201d [Puck]. Well worth a read. \u201cRight before the Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a group of moderate Hill Democrats held a \u2018tense\u2019 Zoom call with the White House to express their concern about Biden\u2019s ability to win\u2014and their ability to win, should he tank and take them down with him. \u2018The call was even worse than the debate,\u2019 one of the participants told me. \u2018He was rambling; he\u2019d start an answer then lose his train of thought, then would just say \u2018whatever.\u2019 He really couldn\u2019t complete an answer. I lost a ton of respect for him.\u2019 A second participant in the call confirmed this characterization\u2026. The Biden campaign pushed back strenuously on these members\u2019 characterization of Biden as a rambling old man, sending me a half-dozen tweets from other call participants, including Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a fierce Biden loyalist, who said the president was \u2018sharp, forceful.’\u201d If I were to flip through the \u201cTrustworthy Sources\u201d section of my Rolodex, no moderate Hill Democrat would be in. But nor would Debbie Wasserman Schultz. So here we are! More: \u201d The Democrats are neither here nor there, neither all in nor all out, neither fully supporting their nominee nor ditching him, a situation perfectly summed up by a Russian expression: a turd stuck in an eddy.\u201d Indeed! But: \u201c\u2018[T]he events [dear boy, events]\u2019 in Pennsylvania on Saturday\u2014as they are known in Washington-speak\u2014at least temporarily ended talk that Biden might step aside. \u2018The Biden replacement talk? That\u2019s over,\u2019 said a source close to the administration. \u2018I think the assassination attempt took the pressure off for a critical 72 hours. Also, the Hill never got its act together\u2014and death by 270 cuts doesn\u2019t work.’\u201d Concluding: \u201cFor now, though, the hand-wringing has died down, at least in public, and Biden seems to have emerged intact. \u2018It feels that way for now, absent any public meltdowns,\u2019 said one Hill Democrat. \u2018Until the actual delegate count is done, there will be the whispers, stories, etcetera. It\u2019s muted now, but we have a few more weeks before it\u2019s Pelosi and Schumer [or still can? See below] could have done it if they showed up with 50 folks in their pockets,\u2019 said the source close to the administration\u2026. So why didn\u2019t they, I asked? \u2018It\u2019s hard to see the way time is ticking when you\u2019re in the midst of it,\u2019 the source responded.\u201d That\u2019s silly. Pelosi and Schumer clearly understand the calendar, even the donors and the pundits don\u2019t. The real reason: \u2018I also think there is still reasonable uncertainty about whether Kamala Harris is a better candidate.\u2019 Said the source close to Democratic leadership, \u2018The Dems lack the stones to force him out, particularly the Dems in Congress.\u2018 But it\u2019s not over yet, and as the Hill source suggested, the whispers haven\u2019t stopped, even if Biden has made clear he\u2019s going to white-knuckle this out. \u2018He also said he would drop if he saw data saying he can\u2019t win,\u2019 said the campaign source. \u2018He\u2019s about to see a lot of it. The next round of polls will probably be apocalyptic.’\u201d \u2022 The polls will certainly be apocapyptic \u2014 if the pollsters are players like the press. We shall see! (Also, generally the \u201clost a lot of respect\u201d trope is only deployed where no respect existed to begin with.) But about that letter\u2014<\/p>\n
\u201cPelosi privately fields battleground Dem calls as she works to address Biden crisis\u201d [Politico]. \u201cPrivately,\u201d \u201cprivately.\u201d I see that word all the time in this story\u2026 \u201cOne House Democrat anxious about President Joe Biden\u2019s effect on the 2024 campaign recently sought out guidance from a trusted party leader: Nancy Pelosi. This lawmaker, who represents a swing seat and was granted anonymity to describe private conversations, said Pelosi asked detailed questions about congressional district-level polling and was \u2018very receptive\u2019 to concerns that Biden couldn\u2019t win in November. The member ended the phone call with the distinct impression that Pelosi believed Biden should exit the presidential race. This lawmaker said the former speaker offered to talk to any other members of Congress who wanted to reach out to her with concerns \u2014 though Pelosi cautioned that she would not be initiating those conversations herself\u2026.. Those who have known Pelosi for decades are predicting that she is, indeed, playing a game of \u20183-D chess,\u2019 according to five Democratic lawmakers and senior aides. She built a reputation for being incredibly strategic during her reign atop the caucus, which included managing the two impeachments of Donald Trump and passing enormous, complex bills like the Affordable Care Act. It didn\u2019t go unnoticed, for instance, that dozens of Democrats are now clamoring to be part of a letter to delay Biden\u2019s nomination process \u2014 led by Pelosi ally Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), whose sprawling district is just north of San Francisco.\u201d \u2022 The Republican National Convention ends Thursday. It could be that really bad polling could emerge Friday, and were Huffman\u2019s sternly worded letter to be made public Friday as well, that would blow up in time for the Sunday talk shows. To be effective, the letter would need to be signed, I assume by Pelosi and caucus leader Hakeem Jeffries at the top (and if the caucus leader wouldn\u2019t sign, what good would the letter do?). Pelosi and Jeffries would sign only if an appreciable percentage of the remaining 113 \u2013 2 = 111 Democrats had been brought to sign (i.e., were that desperate). Considering only quantity, not quality, how many is \u201cappreciable\u201d? 111 * 50% = 56. With that number, and the two signatures from leadership, I\u2019d say Biden would be toast. How about 111 * 25% = 28, basically where we are now? I\u2019d guess the leadership wouldn\u2019t sign, the letter is a damp squib, and Biden lives to blurt another day. The dogs bark and the caravan moves on.<\/p>\n
UPDATE Aaugh! \u201cHouse Democrats scrap letter opposing early DNC vote\u201d [Axios]. \u201cThe letter, which was set to be open for signatures until the end of the day on Wednesday, had \u201cnorth of 30\u2033 signatures as of Wednesday morning, according to a lawmaker familiar with the matter.\u201d \u2022\u00a0So I was right on the math, which I implore readers to believe I worked out before I hit hte tab with this link in my browser.<\/p>\n
\u201cProminent Dem Schiff urges Biden to step aside as party aims to nominate president before convention\u201d [Associated Press]. \u201c\u2018While the choice to withdraw from the campaign is President Biden\u2019s alone, I believe it is time for him to pass the torch,\u2019 Schiff, a key Nancy Pelosi ally who is running for Senate this year, said in a statement. \u2018And in doing so, secure his legacy of leadership by allowing us to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election.\u2019\u2026 Schiff\u2019s announcement comes after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries encouraged the Democratic National Convention to delay for a week plans to hold the virtual vote to renominate Biden, which could have taken place as soon as Sunday, according to two people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.\u201d<\/p>\n
Donors<\/p>\n
\u201cMegadonors Are Plotting to Change Biden\u2019s Mind With Money. Will It Work?\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cFor ultrarich Democrats, this is the golden age of political scheming. The last three weeks since President Biden wilted during the first presidential debate have uncorked a nervous energy that has stirred almost every major Democratic donor and their advisers, turning billionaires ensconced on summer vacations into crafty political animals. They\u2019re calling every major politician they know, encouraging them to call for Mr. Biden\u2019s removal. They\u2019re dangling money to members of Congress who say the right things, and withholding money from those who do not. And even the most reclusive donors are talking to reporters, sometimes on the record, about the turmoil within the party establishment.\u201d But there\u2019s a history here: \u201c[E}ver since Donald J. Trump ran for president in 2016, major business-friendly Republican donors have learned the limits of their powers \u2014 unable to dislodge him from the party\u2019s nomination that year, nor able to do so eight years later. Now, Democratic megadonors are learning some of the same lessons, especially during a time when Mr. Biden has shown some ability to raise significant money from small-dollar givers. For all their riches and ambitions, many Democratic contributors and their big-money advisers have become resigned to the notion that their influence is fairly limited, and are trying not to be na\u00efve. A sense of powerlessness pervades.\u201d \u2022 That\u2019s a damn shame. I hate to think of billionaires being powerless.<\/p>\n
\u201cTop Democratic strategist pushed reporters to consider \u2018staged\u2019 shooting\u201d [Semafor]. \u201cThe scale of [LinkedIn founder Reid] Hoffman\u2019s political donations isn\u2019t public but [adviser Dmitri] Mehlhorn said on a recent private conference call that \u2018Reid and I have invested nine figures of our own money to prevent Trump from getting back into office.\u2019 (The money appears to be largely Hoffman\u2019s.)\u2026 In an email Saturday at 7:34 pm that appeared to be addressed to sympathetic journalists, and which was also sent to Semafor, Mehlhorn wrote that one \u201cpossibility \u2014 which feels horrific and alien and absurd in America, but is quite common globally \u2014 is that this \u2018shooting\u2019 was encouraged and maybe even staged so Trump could get the photos and benefit from the backlash. This is a classic Russian tactic\u2026. The other possibility, Mehlhorn wrote, \u2018is that some crazy anti-Trumper in this chaotic moment decided to assassinate the former President.\u2019 Mehlhorn, who co-founded a fund called \u2018Investing in US\u2019 with Hoffman, made clear his impulse was toward the false flag theory\u2026. Hoffman and Mehlhorn emerged as central figures Democratic politics in the Trump era, directing uncounted millions to both mainstream Democratic causes, like Joe Biden\u2019s campaign operations, and more exotic and controversial private-sector efforts, including ersatz news sites. The origins of Hoffman\u2019s and Mehlhorn\u2019s main organization, Investing In Us, date to early 2017.\u201d \u2022 I think we should give consideration to the idea that plenty of billionaire donors, besides being ignorant and incapable of due diligence \u2014 proof positive: they thought Biden was in good shape \u2014 are nuttier than fruitcakes.<\/p>\n
Pollsters <\/p>\n
\u201cPlaybook: New polling bolsters \u2018Dump Biden\u2019 push\u201d [Politico]. From BlueLabs Analytics (whoever they are). \u201cThe strongest potential candidates are (in alphabetical order) Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly [who?], Maryland Gov. Wes Moore [who?], Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro [who?] and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer [\u201cBig Gretch\u201d]. All four outpaced Biden \u2018by roughly 5 points across battleground states. This data supports the views of strategists like James Carville and those arguing that blindly rallying around Harris would be as big a mistake as blindly supporting Biden\u2019s reelection was. \u2018Nearly twice as many voters say delegates should nominate the best candidate over picking the next in line,\u2019 the memo says. This faction of the #DumpBiden movement wants an open process to replace Biden \u2014 who, by the way, still says he has no intention of stepping aside.\u201d Who would say \u201cpicking the next in line\u201d (I mean, besides a Democratic loyalist). More: \u201c\u201dThe shooting clearly helped the strategy of Biden\u2019s team to run out the clock,\u2019 this Democratic lawmaker said. \u2018It also stopped what would have been a number of members going public after the very unhelpful calls with members on Saturday [see above]. But it\u2019s not over. Senior D leaders have not changed their minds that Biden needs to get out. I think a final push will come once the R convention ends on Thursday.\u201d \u2022 See comments above above on Pelosi, and Huffman\u2019s sternly worded letter \u2014 now defunct! (My choice: Sheldon Whitehouse. \u201cLet\u2019s put a Whitehouse in the White House!\u201d)<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Republican National Convention:<\/p>\n
Opening Grindr at the RNC. pic.twitter.com\/BhxoOai7GT <\/p>\n
\u2014 primordial soup kitchen (@fernbirg) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
Yesterday, we did have a story about how happy everybody at the Convention seemed to be\u2026. Not that there\u2019s anything wrong with that!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201c\u2018A Different Donald Trump\u2019 Beams as Rivals Become \u2018Converts’\u201d [RealClearPolitics]. \u201c[I]f there is one thing Trump has notably not done this week, it is gloat. He has said comparatively little since the attempt on his life Saturday, exuding a gracious silence \u2013 perhaps even a magnanimous stoicism. A source who spoke with the former president at length the day after he dodged an assassin\u2019s bullet reported talking to \u2018a different Donald Trump, but in the best way possible.\u2019 Granted anonymity to speak freely, this individual, who has worked closely with Trump for nearly a decade, described a \u2018weirdly counterintuitive\u2019 phenomenon whereby \u2018he almost dies, he miraculously survives, and it becomes even less about him.\u2019 Perhaps that explains the last-minute invitation to Nikki Haley. She was not originally slated to speak at the RNC, but after the assassination attempt, the Trump campaign asked her to come speak. It was simultaneously an attempt at party and national unity, an overture made more remarkable considering the sheer bitterness of their rivalry\u2026. But all now seems forgiven, or at least forgotten. At this convention, things just feel altered, said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. \u2018And it feels different, which means people are hearing something different,\u2019 he told RCP. \u2018That hasn\u2019t happened for years.\u2019 What changed among the Republican faithful? \u2018Their hero was almost taken away from them,\u2019 he replied, an occurrence that \u2018humanized Trump and humbled his supporters.\u2019 The prize for good behavior may very well be a landslide, the famous pollster continued. \u2018If Trump can get through a day without attacking her, that\u2019s the secret ingredient for the rest of this campaign,\u2019 he said. \u2018Add Haley voters to Trump\u2019s total, and he is unbeatable.’\u201d \u2022 If Trump manages to morph from a Heel to a Face, that would be remarkable. Even if this is only the party line, it\u2019s still remarkable!<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cIn Private Speech, J.D. Vance Said the \u201cDevil Is Real\u201d and Praised Alex Jones as a Truth-Teller\u201d [ProPublica]. \u201cSen. J.D. Vance, whom Donald Trump named as his vice presidential running mate Monday, told a group of influential young conservatives in a closed-door speech in 2021 that they should stand up for \u2018nonconventional people\u2019 who speak truth, such as Infowars founder Alex Jones. \u2018If you listen to Rachel Maddow every night, the basic worldview that you have is that MAGA grandmas who have family dinners on Sunday and bake apple pies for their family are about to start a violent insurrection against this country,\u201d Vance said. \u201cBut if you listen to Alex Jones every day, you would believe that a transnational financial elite controls things in our country, that they hate our society, and oh, by the way, a lot of them are probably sex perverts too.\u2019 Vance went on, \u2018Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, that\u2019s actually a hell of a lot more true than Rachel Maddow\u2019s view of society.’\u201d Where\u2019s the lie? More: \u201cHe said that every person in attendance for his speech believed \u2018something that\u2019s a little crazy.\u2019 In his case, he said, \u2018I believe the devil is real and that he works terrible things in our society. That\u2019s a crazy conspiracy theory to a lot of very well-educated people in this country right now.\u2019 Vance made these remarks at a September 2021 gathering of the Teneo Network, an invitation-only group of young conservatives that counts elected officials, pro athletes, financial executives and media figures among its members. Vance joined Teneo six years ago. ProPublica and Documented obtained a video recording of his 30-minute speech and question-and-answer session, which has not been previously reported.\u201d \u2022\u00a0I\u2019m going to let this link stand in for a deluge of Democrat oppo on Vance that\u2019s drowning my timeline, most of it not very interesting (and less interesting than the reviews of Hillbilly Elegy. It\u2019s interesting that both Chris Arnade\u2019s Dignity (reviewed at NC here) came out in roughly the same time frame, yet Vance was annointed the working class whisperer, presumbly because he went to Yale and then into finance. IMNSHO, Arnade\u2019s is the better, more humane, book, and far more respectful of the working class).<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cUS Vice President Harris, Vance speak as debate date in question\u201d [Reuters]. \u201cU.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has asked former President Donald Trump\u2019s running mate, J.D. Vance, to join an Aug. 13 debate hosted by CBS, a Biden-Harris campaign official said on Tuesday\u2026. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Biden campaign did not comment. The Democratic vice president had previously accepted terms for a CBS (PARA.O), opens new tab debate on either July 23 or Aug. 13, while Trump\u2019s campaign had sought a debate on Fox News that President Joe Biden\u2019s camp had said they would not accept. The July date for a CBS debate is now off the table, according to a person familiar with the matter.\u201d \u2022 The August 13 date is before the Democrat National Convention starting August 19, presenting the faint possibility that a \u201cHarris for President\u201d balloon could be inflated if she does very well against Vance. She was a terrible campaigner in the 2020 election, but a good debater (\u201c\u2018That little girl was me\u2019: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden spar over desegregation at Democratic debate\u201c; \u201cKamala Harris\u2019 2020 campaign now selling \u2018That Little Girl Was Me\u2019 T-shirts following viral exchange with Joe Biden\u201c). Or her staff prepared her well, not necessarily a given.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cEarly voting dates, 2024\u201d [BallotPedia]. For reference, let me print this again, revised for the current list of swing states:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/early_voting.png\")
<\/p>\n
Given that one wishes to influence early voting in Virginia, an \u201cOctober Surprise\u201d should happen in early September. Arizona and Georgia, late September. (Of course, early voters being more like to be committed partisans \u2014 \u201cI\u2019ve seen enough!\u201d \u2014 a \u201csurprise\u201d might not influence them at all. Presumably all this is being gamed out in some back room.)<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cBillionaires Take Sides as Turbulent Presidential Race Heats Up\u201d [Bloomberg]. \u201cThe big fundraising arms of the campaigns and parties plus some key super PACs filed their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission on Monday. Here\u2019s how they stack up: Biden and the Democratic Party raised $263 million in the second quarter and had $240 million cash on hand.Future Forward PAC, his allied super PAC, next reports on Saturday.<\/p>\n
Though out-raised in the quarter, Biden seemed to be stemming the tide in June, when he raised $127 million to Trump\u2019s $112 million. He held a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles with former President Barack Obama that month, and raked in big donations from filmmaker JJ Abrams and actress Julia Roberts. Real estate investor Wayne Jordan, philanthropist Quinn Delaney and Philip Munger, the son of Warren Buffett\u2019s longtime business partner, the late Charles Munger, also gave in June. The big Democratic super PACs that back Biden, including Future Forward PAC and American Bridge, won\u2019t report until Saturday\u2026. Trump and the RNC raised $331 million in May, but did not disclose total cash on hand.Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC next reports on Saturday. Following his guilty verdict on charges of falsifying business records to conceal hush-money payments to an adult film star, Trump enjoyed a fundraising boom. In addition to the millions raised online, Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, private equity veteran John Childs and Chamath Palihapitiya of Social+Capital Partnership LLC were among the financial industry figures who wrote six-figure checks for Trump\u2019s campaign and the GOP the day after the verdict.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Of course, this doesn\u2019t take into account the efforts of the Committee to Unelect President Biden\u2026. <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cExclusive-Four in five Americans fear country is sliding into chaos, Reuters\/Ipsos poll finds\u201d [Reuters]. Post-assasination: \u201c80% of voters \u2013 including similar shares of Democrats and Republicans \u2013 said they agreed with a statement that \u2018the country is spiraling out of the control.\u2019 The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,202 U.S. adults nationwide, including 992 registered voters.\u201d<\/p>\n
Our Famously Free Press<\/p>\n
\u201cEditor at \u2018major news outlet\u2019 tells media to bury iconic photo of Trump after assassination attempt: report\u201d [FOX]. \u201cAn unnamed photo editor at a major news outlet believes it is \u2018dangerous\u2019 for the media to highlight the historic photo of former President Trump standing tall after the assassination attempt Saturday, calling it \u2018free PR\u2019 for the Trump campaign, according to a report\u2026. The former president is seen raising a fist to the crowd of supporters as he was rushed off the stage with blood smeared across his face, Secret Service flanking him, an American flag flying above his head. Associated Press photographer Evan Vucci captured the image that immediately went viral and landed on newspaper front pages while dominating digital news sites and social media platforms across the world.\u201d See discussion of Vucci\u2019s photo at NC here. (Axios has a good discussion of the other two of the top three photos from the event here, from the photographers\u2019 standpoint). More: \u201cTrump himself addressed the now world-famous photo during an interview with the New York Post on Monday, quipping \u2018A lot of people say it\u2019s the most iconic photo they\u2019ve ever seen. They\u2019re right and I didn\u2019t die. Usually you have to die to have an iconic picture.’\u201d <\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
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Airborne Transmission: Covid<\/p>\n
Outdoor air is safer. But not completely!<\/p>\n
If you are packed tightly into a peloton, you are at risk of bioaerosol inhalation. High-intensity exercise exponentially increases aerosol emissions. pic.twitter.com\/h0OQDVWovd<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr Satoshi Akima FRACP \u300e\u79cb\u9593\u8070\u300f (@ToshiAkima) July 17, 2024<\/p>\n
Transmission: H5N1<\/p>\n
Hat tip, Big Ag:<\/p>\n
There seems to have been little progress in getting cattle farmers to see #H5N1 #birdflu as a human health threat. Wonder if recognition of the ongoing & massive threat to poultry farming could change the calculus? <\/p>\n
\u2014 Helen Branswell \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 (@HelenBranswell) July 17, 2024<\/p>\n
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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.<\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in \u201ccurrent view\u201d tab, I think white states here have experienced \u201cno change,\u201d as opposed to have no data.)<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn\u2019t even run back to 1\/21\/23, as it used to, but now starts 1\/1\/24. There\u2019s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn\u2019t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that\u2019s why the shape of the curve has changed.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. <\/p>\n
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED up.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cUnited States Industrial Production MoM\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cIndustrial production in the US rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier in June 2024, more than market expectations of a 0.3 percent increase. Manufacturing output, which makes up 78% of total production, advanced 0.4 percent, compared with market forecast of a 0.2 percent increase. Also, mining output went up 0.3 percent and the output of utilities increased 2.8 percent. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.8 percent in June, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972\u20132023) average.\u201d<\/p>\n
Housing: \u201cUnited States Housing Starts\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cHousing starts in the US rose by 3% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 1,314,000 in June of 2024, rebounding from the revised 4.6% decline in the previous month and firmly above market expectations of 1,300,000 starts. The growth was carried by a 22% surge in starts of buildings with 5 units or more, totaling an annual rate of 360,000. This offset a 2.2% drop in single-unit starts, totaling a rate of 980,000. Among different parts of the country, starts soared in the Northeast (34.4% to 121,000) and the Midwest (26.8% to 194,000), while dropping in the West (-6.1% to 306,000) and the South (-1.7% to 732,000).\u201d<\/p>\n
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Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 54 Neutral (previous close: 63 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 17 at 1:47:37 PM ET.<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Last Avant-Garde\u201d [Los Angeles Review of Books]. \u201c[Dominique Routhier\u2019s] With and Against is part of a recent flurry of books urging a reassessment of the would-be revolutionary movement known as the Situationist International (SI)\u2026. Any valid take on the SI has to view them as a logical next step in a lineage that reaches back at least to the Dada movement and evolved through Surrealism, Russian Futurism and Constructivism, Bauhaus, and the Lettrism movement, from which many of SI\u2019s leading members emerged. All, in their own way, explicitly defined revolution as a breakdown in the barriers between life and work on one hand and fully liberated human creativity on the other\u2026. If the spectacle has wormed its way into our lives and consciousness more than the situationists ever could have anticipated, though, then it is going to require far more hard thinking and sweat to keep running. The recuperation and atrophy of modes and spaces that would allow people to push back is real, but the ability to refuse remains. \u2026. Plenty already know that technology won\u2019t save us. The question of what will remains.\u201d \u2022 See especially Guy Debord\u2019s 1967 fun and easy Society of the Spectacle.<\/p>\n
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Desert Dog:<\/p>\n
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Desert Dog writes: \u201cWaiting for a puff of wind.\u201d As are we all!<\/p>\n
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
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