By Lambert Strether of Corrente<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Common Nightingale, Potez Kovilovo \u2013 Beljarica (podru\u010dje projekta \u201cSrpsko-kineski industrijski park Mihajlo Pupin\u201c), Beograd, Serbia.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
(1) Keystone Cops at Trump\u2019s assassination attempt.<\/p>\n
(2) Unelecting Biden: The effort continues privately.<\/p>\n
(3) Republican National Convention and J.D. Vance<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Look for the Helpers<\/p>\n
\u201cColorado\u2019s ham radio operators are ready for an emergency \u2014 just don\u2019t call them amateurs\u201d [Colorado Sun]. \u201cThere is nothing amateur about the gathering in the remote corner of South Park. Part of the an American Radio Relay League\u2019s annual Field Day \u2014 a nationwide rally of licensed ham radio hobbyists that started in 1933 \u2014 the circled collection of high-tech camper trailers and vans is bustling with technical wizards training for that day when they are called into service. It could be a tornado, flood, hailstorm or wildfire. Maybe an earthquake or solar storm has knocked out satellite communication. Maybe rural emergency service folks need help with a big event, like a mountain bike or running race. Whatever the reason, there are 19,629 licensed amateur radio operators in Colorado \u2014 almost 750,000 in the U.S. \u2014 who are trained and ready to keep critical communications flowing. \u2018For most amateur radio groups, it\u2019s about serving our communities,\u2019 said Desiree Baccus \u2014 call sign N3DEZ \u2014 with the Rocky Mountain HAM Radio club, a nonprofit that maintains a network of radio-transmitting equipment across Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming. \u2018There is only so much local sheriffs can do in small towns and you will see amateur radio operators stepping in to fill the gaps as volunteers to help as a second service to our emergency management professionals.\u201d \u2022 Too bad about the licensing requirements\u2026..<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (\u201cHelpers\u201d in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of \u201cthe communism of everyday life\u201d are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump Assassination Attempt<\/p>\n
\u201cExclusive: County Officer Warned Of Seeing Man With Rangefinder Before Trump Was Shot\u201d [Beaver Countian]. \u201cA Beaver County police officer warned a command center of seeing a man with a rangefinder before former president Donald Trump was shot on Saturday. The officer had also warned the man was scoping out the roof of the building he was stationed in as a counter-sniper, and that the man returned with a backpack before ultimately scaling the building\u2026. Contrary to reports in several national news outlets, officers say the building just outside of a security perimeter established by Secret Service was in fact occupied by law enforcement. \u2018There were three counter-snipers located in the building that the shooter eventually used to take shots at Trump,\u2019 one officer told BeaverCountian.com\u2026. A security operations plan had placed each of the three counter-snipers inside of the building looking out of windows toward the rally, with none stationed on its roof. Due to a lack of manpower, the men did not have spotters assigned to them, as would be standard operating procedure.\u201d \u2022 And why were the agents not on the roof? One theory:<\/p>\n
Ahh, haven\u2019t seen this confirmed but it\u2019d explain a lot. Police snipers were supposed to be on roof but decided it was too hot so they moved inside building. Deserting an assigned post is bad, what\u2019s worse is SS didn\u2019t know cops had noped out, they thought he was a police sniper. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Carlos Mucha (@mucha_carlos) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
\u201cThree snipers were stationed inside building used in Trump assassination attempt\u201d [CBS]. \u201cOne of the snipers inside saw Thomas Matthew Crooks outside and looking up at the roof, observing the building and disappearing, a local law enforcement officer tells CBS News. Crooks came back, sat down and looked at his phone. At that point, one of the snipers took a picture of him. Crooks took out a rangefinder and the sniper radioed to the command post. Crooks disappeared again and then came back a third time with a backpack. The snipers called in with information that he had a backpack and said he was walking towards the back of the building\u2026. By the time other officers came for backup, [Crooks] had climbed on top of the building and was positioned above and behind the snipers inside the building, the officer said.\u201d \u2022 Looks like the Beaver Countian broke this story, and then CBS advanced it\u2026 (Pennsylvania still has a lot of local papers, interestingly.)<\/p>\n
\u201cThree Snipers Were Inside Building Trump Rally Shooter Fired From, Reports Say\u201d [Forbes]. A round-up. Includes: \u201cAccording to local TV station WPXI, officers on the ground first spotted Crooks nearly 30 minutes before he fired at Trump and the rally-goers.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cSecret Service did not sweep rooftop where Trump shooter was found, source says\u201d [Scripps]. \u201cThe Secret Service source\u2019s statement to Scripps News confirms that the building was a blind spot in the security radar, but the source says it was up to local law enforcement to sweep it, as it was outside of the perimeter that the agency would secure. But in a statement to Scripps News, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania State Police said the department provided \u201call resources\u201d that the Secret Service requested for Trump\u2019s rally, including 30 to 40 troopers who helped secure the inside perimeter, but that it \u201cwas not responsible for securing\u201d the building or the property it resides on.\u201d \u2022 So why were the snipers there at all?<\/p>\n
\u201cHow Security Went So Wrong at Trump\u2019s Rally\u201d [New York Magazine]. Former agent and University of New Haven criminal-justice professor Robert McDonald: \u201cAny time the Secret Service goes on a protective visit, whether it\u2019s the president, vice-president, or former presidents, the agents cannot do what they do by themselves. So the Secret Service is very good at liaison-ing and working with other partners. But they are the developers of the security plan and get buy-in and cooperation from state, local, and other federal authorities to implement the plan. The bottom line is that the buck stops with the Secret Service. We train and train and train for this type of thing and hope we never have to utilize what we train. There were some positives with the way that the team reacted, but I think, obviously, the main point of contention here is going to be \u2018How did we miss that shooter on the roof? How did that happen?\u2019 And that\u2019s going to take some serious investigation by Congress, I think. And there may have to be, and rightly so, some accountability on the part of the Secret Service.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cMystery Over Trump\u2019s Diagnosis and Treatment After Assassination Attempt\u201d [The Daily Beast]. \u201cSo far, the Trump camp has not disclosed what kinds of tests the former president underwent, how he was treated and for what types of injuries, and if there will be follow-ups.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cWe Should Have Seen the Attempted Assassination Coming\u201d [Lawfare] \u2022 Oh, Lawfare. Are you seriously telling me you never gamed it out?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat We Know\u2014and Don\u2019t Know\u2014So Far About the Trump Rally Gunman\u201d [Time]. Two factoids, first: \u201cBoth parents are licensed professional counselors, according to state records.\u201d Oh. Second: \u201cCrooks graduated from the Community College of Allegheny County with an associate degree in engineering science just over two months ago.\u201d \u2022 Doesn\u2019t fit the troubled loner narrative at all. What happened to this young man?<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than four months to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/rcp_2024-07-12.png\")
<\/p>\n
Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump\u2019s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden \u201cbuzz\u201d (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Unelecting Biden:<\/p>\n
The DNC<\/p>\n
\u201cD.N.C. Aims to Push Biden Toward Nomination Next Week, Despite Doubts\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cLeaders of the Democratic National Committee are moving swiftly to confirm President Biden as his party\u2019s presidential nominee by the end of July, according to four people briefed on the matter who insisted on anonymity to discuss the sensitive deliberations. The move would formalize Mr. Biden as the nominee at a moment when Democrats are torn over whether he should run again after his poor debate performance\u2026. The process will effectively begin when the rules committee of the Democratic National Convention meets on a video call at 11 a.m. on Friday, followed by another party group on Sunday. All of the more than 4,000 delegates are expected to begin casting their ballots as soon as Monday, a process that is likely to take about a week. After that, the committee is expected to quickly hold the roll call, a tradition that typically occurs on the convention floor but is being held virtually this year. The rules committee is a body of more than 180 delegates led by Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Leah Daughtry, a veteran party official. A majority of its members have deep ties to Mr. Biden and were vetted for their loyalty to him, making it unlikely that his nomination will face significant dissent\u2026. The procedure would not change the reality of Mr. Biden\u2019s position: Under the party\u2019s rules, he can be replaced as the nominee only if he agrees to step aside and release his delegates.\u201d<\/p>\n
Electeds<\/p>\n
\u201cDid Trump\u2019s shooting save Biden\u2019s nomination?\u201d [Vox]. \u201cThe rebellion against President Biden that was brewing among some Democrats since the president\u2019s debate performance has vanished from the headlines, and some are speculating that it may be over for good\u2026. After Biden gave a press conference Thursday evening in which he answered reporters\u2019 questions for nearly an hour, the promised flood of defections didn\u2019t materialize; it was more like a trickle. His competent performance there seemed to freeze things in place, leaving Democrats at an impasse going into the weekend. Then, Saturday evening, a shooting at Trump\u2019s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, left one rallygoer dead and injured Trump. And it had a few consequences for Biden. First, it changed the subject\u2026. Second, it\u2019s generally helpful for a president in crisis to do things that are \u2018presidential\u2019\u2026. Third and most controversial, some Democrats\u2019 instinctive reaction to Trump\u2019s shooting has been to assume that he\u2019ll now win the presidency and to conclude, therefore, that a messy and difficult push to replace Biden isn\u2019t worthwhile, since Biden\u2019s replacement would also likely lose.\u201d But: \u201cThat chain of logic is pretty obviously flawed. It\u2019s far too early to write off an election that is months away, so this may be mainly a justification for inertia and inaction that key Democrats already were inclined toward. But the upshot is clear: It helps Biden hang on.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democratic Strategists<\/p>\n
\u201cPrivate efforts to nudge Biden to step aside continue\u201d [CNN]. \u201cThe public calls from Democrats asking President Joe Biden to bow out of the presidential race have quieted in recent days, but private efforts to nudge the president and his top aides continue, several Democratic sources told CNN. Among the efforts, these sources say, are repeated memos from a seasoned and respected Democratic pollster, Stanley Greenberg, sharing his take that Biden is on track to lose the election \u2013 and in a way that does deep damage to other Democratic candidates. \u2018Lose everything,\u2019 is how one Democrat described a polling memo Greenberg sent to Biden\u2019s inner circle in recent days. \u2018Devastating,\u2019 was the one word answer of a second Democrat close to the White House who is familiar with the Greenberg memos. These sources said Greenberg has sent several memos over the past two weeks since the president\u2019s devastating debate performance, analyzing internal polling he asserts shows the president\u2019s position continues to deteriorate because Americans overwhelmingly do not see him as up to serving four more years.\u201d <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: \u201cI Expected the Republican National Convention to Be Dark and Tense. It\u2019s Something Else Entirely\u201d [Slate]. \u201cAlmost instantly, I realized I had read the vibe all wrong. The law enforcement and volunteers working the entryway had me through a bag scan and a metal detector in seconds. The mood was not tense\u2014it was almost chipper. Once inside, I was again surprised by the jubilance of the many conventiongoers. Red hats crowned smiling faces as attendees giddily rushed toward the arena and secured a place in line to get inside and escape the heat\u2026. I moved through the crowd, and the mood only got more jubilant. One man sported an elephant hat fitted with a long trunk that extended and stuck out over his head. I spotted a pair of golden Trump shoes, and several people wore shirts with photos of Trump\u2019s face printed all over them. One woman sported a large top hat with an image of Abraham Lincoln next to Trump pulling his shirt open to reveal a Superman S beneath it\u2026 There were more MAGA celebrities inbound, with gaggles of giddy convention attendees lined up to take selfies with them. And as I continued to navigate the convention on its first day, the excitement remained in the air. People dutifully condemned Democrats\u2014who were described as all-powerful but also somehow feeble and inept\u2014and the shooting if I asked. But each time I got the slight sense I was ruining the vibe a little bit. More than once, people around me broke into chants of \u2018USA,\u2019 with laughter and the easy confidence of people who think they have this thing in the bag. Whatever horrors the weekend had brought, they were ready to party.\u201d<\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: \u201cSean O\u2019Brien, Teamsters union chief, becomes first Teamster to address RNC\u201d [CBS]. \u201cSean O\u2019Brien, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, gave Monday\u2019s keynote speech at the Republican National Convention, delivering one of the most anti-big business speeches in recent RNC memory and becoming the first boss in the organization\u2019s 121-year history to address the convention. \u2018Today, the Teamsters are here to say we are not beholden to anyone or any party,\u2019 O\u2019Brien said. \u2018We will create an agenda and work with a bipartisan coalition, ready to accomplish something real for the American worker. And I don\u2019t care about getting criticized.\u2019 O\u2019Brien tackled topics that aren\u2019t typically fodder for Republican voters. He blasted big businesses like Walmart and Amazon. He admonished the Chamber of Commerce, calling it \u2018unions for big business.\u2019 And he said Washington isn\u2019t looking out for workers. \u2018The American people aren\u2019t stupid, they know the system is broken,\u2019 he said. \u2018We all know how Washington is run. Working people have no chance of winning this fight. That\u2019s why I\u2019m here today, because I refuse to keep doing the same things my predecessors did.’\u201d \u2022 Hmm.<\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: \u201cConservatives Slam RNC For \u2018Giving a Primetime Speaking Slot to a Pro-Abortion Feminist\u2019 Who \u2018Praised Satanism\u2019 [Mediate]. \u2022 Excellent. But why wasn\u2019t \u201cOnlyFans model\u201d in the headline?<\/p>\n
J.D. Vance:<\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: \u201cBehind the Curtain: Why J.D.\u201d [Axios]. Trumpworld insiders tell us these were key factors in sealing the deal for Vance: youth & vigor; smart; american dream bio; storyteller; smooth talker; new money. And: \u201cCarlson, who has a prime-time speaking slot at the convention, told us the logic for Vance \u2018is that he doesn\u2019t secretly hate Trump, as all the rest of them do. He fundamentally agrees with Trump. That\u2019s precisely why neocon donors [who want more aid for Ukraine] fear him.\u2019 Vance also had the most chemistry with Trump, who got to know him after Don Jr. pushed his dad to endorse Vance for Senate in 2022. Trump has genuine affection for Vance \u2014 rare for Trump, and a real change from his reasoning for picking Mike Pence in 2016.\u201d \u2022 Hmm. <\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: \u201cWho is JD Vance? Things to know about Donald Trump\u2019s pick for vice president\u201d [Associated Press]. \u201cTrump has also complimented Vance\u2019s beard, saying he \u2018looks like a young Abraham Lincoln.’\u201d \u2022 Wowsers.<\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: \u201cEurope reacts to J.D. Vance as Trump\u2019s VP pick: \u2018This is a disaster for Ukraine’\u201d [Politico]. \u2022 Europe should be worrying about how it\u2019s going to get cheap gas for heating when AMOC flips, not Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: \u201cTrump\u2019s VP Pick Won\u2019t Help Him Win Election\u201d [Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics]. \u201cOne of the interesting things about this already-exceedingly interesting election was that Donald Trump had a variety of good potential vice-presidential picks. Different options brought different things to the ticket: Doug Burgum looked the part and lent an air of seriousness to the ticket; Marco Rubio helped Trump with Hispanic voters; Greg Abbott emphasized Trump\u2019s border security message while adding extensive executive experience; Tim Scott could help Trump double down with minority voters; Glenn Youngkin could put a purplish-blue state solidly into play. It was really an embarrassment of riches. Instead, he picked J.D. Vance, a vice-presidential candidate who adds absolutely nothing to the ticket. In fact, he might make things more difficult for Trump\u2026. Then there are the suburbanites, whose defections in 2020 cost Trump the presidential election (and whose defections in 2022 cost Republicans control of the Senate). These voters are particularly concentrated in states like Nevada and Arizona (where supermajorities of voters live in suburbs). Vance\u2019s brand of big-spending conservatism matched with culture warrior bona fides really does nothing to allay their fears about Trump. It may actually push them further away.\u201d \u2022 Hmm.<\/p>\n
Republican National Convention: Vance as a Judas Goat for ambitious PMCs to fill the Republican gap on policy competence:<\/p>\n
Quick take on Vance: his appointment as VP suggests that the GOP is looking to make an appeal to anti-woke Silicon Valley or finance types to fill the void left by the Republican Party’s competency crisis.<\/p>\n
Right now, there is tremendous asymmetry between the parties in policy\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 TracingWoodgrains (@tracewoodgrains) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
Bush the Younger\u2019s administration has this problem, and Heritage still has it, judging by Project 2025\u2019s call for boot camps where bright young conservatives can get training for government service.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R) (Smith\/Cannon): \u201cSpecial counsel to appeal judge\u2019s dismissal of classified documents case against Donald Trump\u201d [Associated Press]. \u201cA spokesman for Smith revealed the move in a statement Monday hours after U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon threw out the case. The judge sided with Trump\u2019s lawyers, who said Smith\u2019s appointment as special counsel violated the Constitution. A successful appeal by prosecutors could result in the indictment being reinstated, though even if that there were to happen, it would be virtually impossible for a trial to take place before the November presidential election.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cFull Replay: President Biden Interview With NBC\u2019s Lester Holt\u201d (transcript) [RealClearPolitics]. \u201cFor example, you know, the January 6th \u2014 you know, the attack on the Capitol, the \u2014 I \u2014 I \u2014 Lester, I got in this race early on in 2020 \u2014 for the 2020 race. I wasn\u2019t gonna run again because I\u2019d lost my son. I didn\u2019t \u2014 you know? And \u2014 until I watched what happened in Charlottesville, Virginia. Those folks coming out of the woods with torches, carrying swastikas, singing the same Nazi bile that was accompanied by this Ku Klux Klan and a young woman was killed. And \u2014 and it was a bystander. And \u2014 the president \u2014 then president was asked, \u2018What do you think?\u2019 He said, \u2018The very fine people on both sides.\u2019 Not fine people on both sides. No excuse. Zero.\u201d \u2022 This is lowering the temperature? On the durable \u201cvery fine people\u201d see Snopes here. <\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cMost Voters Want Biden To Step Down, Oldest Voters Least Concerned\u201d [RealClearPolitics]. \u201cIn a CBS News\/YouGov poll published last Monday, voters were asked whether Biden should drop out of the race and allow another Democrat to vie for the title of the party\u2019s nominee. Most voters (64%) believe it is time for a new Democratic candidate. Of the 1,130 registered voters surveyed, only 20% of respondents under 30 believed Biden exclusively had the appropriate cognitive health to serve as president. (The younger a voter was, the more likely they were to believe neither candidate had adequate mental fitness. 37% of voters under 30 felt that neither candidate had appropriate cognition, as did 35% of voters aged 30-44 and 28% of 45-64 year-olds.) The age group least concerned with the cognition of the 2024 major party candidates are voters 65 and up, of whom only 19% believed neither candidate had appropriate cognitive health.\u201d \u2022 Handy chart:<\/p>\n
Most shocking chasm heading into conventions: per new @NBCNews poll, just 33% of Dem voters are satisfied w\/ their party’s presidential nominee, vs. 71% of GOP voters. pic.twitter.com\/RnFosCwSlm<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 15, 2024<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cJ.D. Vance offers Democrats an opening\u201d [Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin]. \u201cBut there\u2019s also the question of whether the \u201cDemocracy is on the ballot\u201d message has been effective in the first place. It\u2019s been the centerpiece of Biden\u2019s campaign from the start \u2014 but polls find that the message mostly resonates with high-engagement, college-educated voters, which is basically the only group that Biden hasn\u2019t lost ground with since 2020. A new Democratic ticket, with more ideological balance than the Republican one, could perhaps offer a fresher spin on it, while also making a better claim than Vance to truly representing the interests of the working class.\u201d<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cVP Harris \u201cprepared\u201d to debate J.D. Vance\u201d [Axios]. \u201c\u2018Vice President Harris is prepared to debate J.D Vance,\u2019 Biden campaign spokesperson TJ Ducklo said in the call with reporters after Trump named Vance as his running mate. \u2018We have accepted the proposal from CBS News \u2026 to participate in that debate, and we feel very good.\u2019 State of play: The Biden campaign accepted the invitation to participate in an in-studio VP debate hosted by CBS on July 23 or Aug. 13.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Kennedy (I): \u201cTrump met with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to seek endorsement\u201d [Politico]. \u201cFormer President Donald Trump met this morning in Milwaukee with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to discuss the possibility of the independent candidate endorsing the Republican nominee, according to multiple people familiar with the huddle. Asked about the meeting and a potential endorsement, Kennedy denied that he plans to drop out of the race. \u2018Yes, Mr. Kennedy met with President Trump today to discuss national unity, and he hopes to meet with leaders of the Democratic Party as well,\u2019 Kennedy campaign press secretary Stefanie Spear said in a statement. \u2018And no he is not dropping out of the race. He is the only pro-environment, pro-choice, anti-war candidate who beats Donald Trump in head-to-head polls.’\u201d<\/p>\n
Kennedy (I): \u201cRFK Jr. Apologizes After Video of Call With Trump Leaks Showing Private Comments: \u2018We\u2019re Gonna Win’\u201d [Mediaite]. Trump on vax: \u201cSomething\u2019s wrong with that whole system. And it\u2019s the doctors, you find. Remember I said I want to do small doses? Small doses. When you feed a baby, Bobby, a vaccination that is like 38 different vaccines, and it looks like it\u2019s meant for a horse, not a\u2026 you know 10 pound or 20 pound baby. It looks like you\u2019re giving you should be giving a horse this. And do you ever see the size of it, right? You know, it\u2019s just massive. And then you see the baby all of a sudden starting to change radically. I\u2019ve seen it too many times. And then you hear that it doesn\u2019t have an impact, right? But you and I talked about that a long time ago.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Kennedy apologizes:<\/p>\n
When President Trump called me I was taping with an in-house videographer. I should have ordered the videographer to stop recording immediately. I am mortified that this was posted. I apologize to the president.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cGet a Grip, Democrats. You Can Still Win This\u201d [Washington Monthly]. \u201c[P]olitical professionals should know better than to predict defeat four months before Election Day, especially when polls remain close. The ups and downs of the 2024 race should have already reminded us that an event today can be superseded by an event tomorrow. Not two months ago, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, and Biden was inching up in the polls. Just before the debate, Biden took a brief lead in the FiveThirtyEight national average and nearly did the same in RealClearPolitics. Then, the post-debate panic over Biden\u2019s mental acuity knocked him back two or three points in those trackers. It is trite but true to note that a lot can happen over the next three months. We can\u2019t be clairvoyant, but optimism is warranted. Israel and Hamas may soon agree to a ceasefire. Biden\u2019s border crackdown may continue to drive down the number of illegal crossings and relieve pressure on municipalities. Perhaps most importantly, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates and buoy public perception of the growing economy. Many Democrats are understandably nervous about how Biden will perform in the campaign\u2019s final weeks, but let\u2019s not forget that Trump may do plenty to rankle swing voters, as he has throughout his political career. It\u2019s not true that Trump always \u2018gets away with it.\u2019 If he did, Republicans would have had better electoral performances in 2018, 2020, and 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cStop Pretending You Know How This Will End\u201d [The Atlantic]. \u201cLet me offer another interpretation of Saturday\u2019s shocking event: Nobody knows anything. Anyone who claims to have already figured out precisely how Trump\u2019s bloody ear will influence the 2024 election or strain the nation\u2019s civic bonds is lying to you and to themselves. The history of failed assassination attempts in the United States and abroad offers only the murkiest indication of the path forward. \u201cWould-be assassins are chaos agents more than agents that direct the course of history,\u201d says Benjamin Jones, an economist at Northwestern University who has studied the effects of political assassination attempts over the past 150 years. These liminal figures\u2014light-years from fame, yet inches from infamy\u2014tend to change the world in minuscule ways, if they change anything at all. The legacy of failed presidential assassination attempts in the U.S. should temper expectations that this past weekend was a world-historical event. Theodore Roosevelt was shot in 1912 campaigning for president in Milwaukee and, with Paul Bunyan heroism, continued his speech after being struck; he still lost. During a three-week span in 1975, two women tried and failed to shoot Gerald Ford. He lost his upcoming election, too. When Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981, a brief spike in his approval rating disappeared within a matter of months.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democrats en D\u00e9shabill\u00e9<\/p>\n
Greenwald is correct:<\/p>\n
I know nobody cares, but the reason this New Yorker cover is so dumb, among many reasons, is Amy Coney Barrett has repeatedly voted against Trump and the conservative majority, while John Roberts cast the decisive vote to save Obamacare.<\/p>\n
But this is how liberals see the world: <\/p>\n
\u2014 Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 15, 2024<\/p>\n
New Yorker readers were my people; I grew up waiting eagerly for the New Yorker to come in the mail (bookish, I was). The topic were interesting, the reviews were great, the little movie blurbs were wonderful, the cartoons were funny\u2026 And now\u2026. What a sad mess. <\/p>\n
Realignment and Legitimacy<\/p>\n
\u201cDare to struggle? Dare to win?\u201d [Closed Form]. \u201cWe are not allowed to talk about what we\u2019re actually doing, and we\u2019re especially not allowed to disagree. To disagree is to engage in \u201cinfighting\u201d and \u201cdrama\u201d that occlude the core mission of most NGO groups (many, many leftist formations are NGOs in the US): building lists of emails. This is a consequence of social media optimization logic together with the chokehold that nonprofits and other NGOs have on the political landscape in the US (this is particularly pronounced in Pittsburgh which informs my perspective tremendously \u2014 I am not arguing this is the sum total of the left or the case everywhere, just that it is widespread). It all adds up to a distressing \u201cbanking\u201d model of political education. Gone are the days of study, argument, struggle, development of oneself and others in common intellectual pursuit. Were they ever here? LOL. Who knows. But time after time in my own life I have been expected to just show up and execute on some tactic that I had no part in developing and was not welcome to have any part in developing, from the mundane (aimless canvassing \u201cfor Medicare for all\u201d) to the risky (a favorite strategy of NGO-affiliated organizers in Pittsburgh during the first Trump administration was \u201ctaking intersections\u201d \u2014 stopping traffic, often with a terrifyingly inadequate number of inexperienced people, to no conceivable strategic or even tactical end). Someone else \u2014 they\u2019ll never tell you it\u2019s some old ass white person on a nonprofit board \u2014 already has the correct idea, even though the political situation is shifting and unfolding, and they\u2019re gonna put it in your head, and you\u2019re gonna act like you believe it and you understand what it\u2019s doing, by doing what they tell you to do. That\u2019s what it means, in the vast majority of cases, to participate in protest in the US in recent years.\u201d \u2022 Well worth a read.<\/p>\n
\u201cTraveler\u2019s Guide to the Acronym Wasteland\u201d [The Anarchist Library]. The deck: \u201cA general, group-by-group overview of some tankie and authoritarian entryist Left orgs in Philly (though partly relevant to other contexts; many are national groups), to help more autonomous, uncontrollable rebels better understand and defend against their manipulations.\u201d \u2022 Lots and lots of detail of the world beyond the NGOs, not all of it edifying.<\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Transmission: H5N1<\/p>\n
\u201cDespite bird flu anxiety in the dairy barn, a yearly tradition carries on at an Iowa county fair\u201d [STAT]. Good local color, well worth a read. But: \u201cThe only way to make sure is to test widely, hoping that every sample comes back negative. That wasn\u2019t in the cards at the moment, given some producers\u2019 sentiments.\u201d \u2022\u00a0[lambert pounds head on desk]. <\/p>\n
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nevertheless:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/flu_phases.png\")
<\/p>\n
Maskstravaganza<\/p>\n
\u201cAdmission screening testing of patients and staff N95 masks are cost-effective in reducing COVID-19 hospital acquired infections\u201d [Journal of Hospital Infection]. Agent-based model over 178 outbreaks in acute care settings in Australia. From the Abstract: \u201cCompared to no admission screening testing and staff surgical masks, all scenarios were cost saving with health gains. Staff N95s + RAT admission screening of patients was the cheapest, saving A$78.4M [95%UI 44.4M-135.3M] and preventing 1,543 [1,070-2,146] deaths state-wide per annum. Both interventions were individually beneficial: staff N95s in isolation saved A$54.7M and 854 deaths state-wide per annum, while RAT admission screening of patients in isolation saved A$57.6M and 1,176 deaths state-wide per annum.\u201d \u2022 Good to know, but won\u2019t appease the RCT crowd (as if anything would).<\/p>\n
Elite Maleficence<\/p>\n
They knew:<\/p>\n
This might surprise everyone including journalists, unions such @nynurses @NationalNurses & others but an overlooked 2011 OSHA training video shows the government knew SARS viruses like Covid were airborne over a decade ago, that elastomeric respirators were of critical\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/AkcSWPGyCe<\/p>\n
\u2014 Nicolas Smit (@PPEtoheros) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
They just don\u2019t want you to know.<\/p>\n
Now I will always hate the color teal:<\/p>\n
CDCs language is such a laughable show of manipulation. Instead of “it’s going up” they say “it’s not declining.” Instead of green > red that everyone understands for low\/high it’s ALL teal.<\/p>\n
Does anyone know looking at this map what any of those colors mean? No? Of course not. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Covid Caution KP.2 \/ KP.3 FLiRT Variant + LB.1 (@CovidCaution) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
Our World in Data memory-holes the life expectancy drop:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/life_expectancy-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
I suppose I should have asked whose world \u201cour world\u201d is. Here\u2019s a link.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.<\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in \u201ccurrent view\u201d tab, I think white states here have experienced \u201cno change,\u201d as opposed to have no data.)<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn\u2019t even run back to 1\/21\/23, as it used to, but now starts 1\/1\/24. There\u2019s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn\u2019t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that\u2019s why the shape of the curve has changed.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. <\/p>\n
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED up.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
Retail: \u201cU.S. Retail Sales\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cRetail sales in the US stalled in June from May 2024, following an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in the previous period.\u201d<\/p>\n
Housing: \u201cUnited States NAHB Housing Market Index\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe NAHB\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US eased by one point from the previous month to 42 in July of 2024, the lowest in the current year, and below market expectations of 44.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *
\n* * *<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 63 Greed (previous close: 61 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 52 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 16 at 12:35:46 PM ET \u2022 <\/p>\n
Musical Interlude<\/p>\n
Tragedy narrowly averted:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Photo Book<\/p>\n
\u201cHow the Rise of the Camera Launched a Fight to Protect Gilded Age Americans\u2019 Privacy\u201d [Smithsonian]. \u201cThe same year Kodak cameras hit the marketplace, the Brooklyn Daily Eagle reported that Anthony Comstock\u2014the anti-obscenity crusader after whom the 1873 Comstock Act is named\u2014had arrested an amateur photographer for selling manually photoshopped pictures that placed \u2018the heads of innocent women on the undraped bodies of other females.\u2019 In 1890, a mugshot photographer for the New York Police Department was fired for selling copies of the mugshots to arrestees themselves\u2014an arrangement the New York Times described as a \u2018lucrative business.\u2019 Boundless fascination with photographs created a bustling economy. People bought and collected random photographs from dry goods stores, general junk shops, vending machines and even cigarette packs. Demand was so robust that amateurs were just as able to sell to this market as professionals,\u201d \u2022 Sounds like AI.<\/p>\n
Book Nook<\/p>\n
More damn books I won\u2019t have time to read:<\/p>\n
Octavia Butler\u2019s 1993 dystopian novel \u201cParable of the Sower\u201d begins in July of 2024. Climate change is turning the globe into a hellscape with droughts, fires and calamitous weather events. Racial and class inequities have soared, women\u2019s rights are under threat, and white\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 Michiko Kakutani (@michikokakutani) July 16, 2024<\/p>\n
Worth clicking \u201cShow more\u201d for the Presidential slogan\u2026.<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cAre you guilty of tsundoku?\u201d [Travel between the pages]. \u201cThe Japanese word tsundoku means buying books and letting them pile up unread. The word dates back to the very beginning of modern Japan, the Meiji era (1868\u20131912) and has its origins in a pun. Tsundoku, which literally means reading pile, is written in Japanese as \u7a4d\u3093\u8aad. Tsunde oku means to let something pile up and is written \u7a4d\u3093\u3067\u304a\u304f. Some wag around the turn of the century swapped out that oku (\u304a\u304f) in tsunde oku for doku (\u8aad) \u2013 meaning to read. Then since tsunde doku is hard to say, the word got mushed together to form tsundoku.\u201d \u2022 I am totally guilty. But just think of buying a book as taking out an option\u2026. <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From ST:<\/p>\n
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ST writes: \u201cAttached is a bloom of one of the many flowering plants that surround my house. As with most of them, I have no idea what kind of plant this is. Perhaps if you use this as an antidote, someone botanically minded among the readership could cure my ignorance. Thanks.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n
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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!\n<\/p>\n
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