By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/p>\n
The iconic image (from AP\u2019s Evan Vucci), helpfully annotated to show how composition makes for an iconic image:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/trump_vucci.png\")
<\/p>\n
And speaking of iconic images, if your first thought is \u201cTrump (nearly) died for us\u201d:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pieta.png\")
<\/p>\n
(Notice, in Vucci\u2019s image, a woman also supporting Trump in his agony.)<\/p>\n
Or if your first thought is \u201cTrump (nearly) died for our country\u201d (AP\u2019s Joe Rosenthal):<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/iwo_jima.png\")
<\/p>\n
(The stars and stripes doing its work, although I suppose Secret Service agents in sunglasses will have to stand in for the Marines. But that\u2019s where we are, isn\u2019t it?)<\/p>\n
Icons propagate. Already, T-shirts printed with Vucci\u2019s image are on sale at a New Jersey boardwalk:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/trump_t-shirts_nj_boardwalk.png\")
<\/p>\n
\u201cShooting makes me stronger.\u201d[1]<\/p>\n
Having begun, as it were, in medias res, let\u2019s circle back to the beginning, and proceed in an orderly manner. I will aggregate the material I have read on the shooter, the venue, the shooting, and cui bono. I\u2019ll conclude with some of the more humane reactions. Starting with the shooter\u2013<\/p>\n
The Shooter<\/p>\n
We know very little about the shooter, although one of the first things we know about is his partisan affiliation (or proxies therefor). From the New York Post, \u201cThomas Matthew Crooks ID\u2019d as gunman who shot Trump during Pa. rally\u201d<\/p>\n
According to state voter status records, Crooks was a registered Republican.<\/p>\n
The shooter made one singular $15 donation to the liberal ActBlue political action committee on January 20, 2021 \u2014 Biden\u2019s Inauguration Day, the Intercept reportedp[2].<\/p>\n
(Smith was not carrying ID; he was identified through the gun and DNA analysis[3].)However, from the Inquirer:<\/p>\n
[ex-Bethel Park student Max Ryan] Smith recalled participating in a mock debate with Crooks in an American history course in which the teacher had students stand on opposite sides of the classroom to signal their support or opposition.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe majority of the class were on the liberal side, but Tom, no matter what, always stood his ground on the conservative side,\u201d Smith said. \u201cThat\u2019s still the picture I have of him. Just standing alone on one side while the rest of the class was on the other \u2026 It makes me wonder why he would carry out an assassination attempt on the conservative candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n
Crooks graduated from high school two years ago. From the Post:<\/p>\n
Crooks was a member of the 2022 graduating class at Bethel Park High School, the school district confirmed Sunday morning.<\/p>\n
Video shows him walking across a stage to accept his diploma. He also received a $500 National Math and Science Initative Star Award during his graduating year, TribLive reported.<\/p>\n
His high school experience was unhappy. NBC:<\/p>\n
A high school classmate, Jason Kohler, 21, said Crooks was a \u201cloner\u201d who was \u201cbullied so much in high school.\u201d<\/p>\n
Crooks would regularly wear hunting outfits and was made fun of for the way he dressed. He often sat alone at lunch, Kohler added.<\/p>\n
His post-high school experience seems not to have been happy, or at leat not STEM-oriented. BBC:<\/p>\n
Crooks worked in a local nursing home kitchen just a short drive away from his home, the BBC understands.<\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s the family. CNN:<\/p>\n
When reached by CNN late Saturday night, Crooks\u2019 father, Matthew Crooks, said he was trying to figure out \u201cwhat the hell is going on\u201d but would \u201cwait until I talk to law enforcement\u201d before speaking about his son. He could not be reached again on Sunday.<\/p>\n
We have no motive. BBC:<\/p>\n
Having established Crooks\u2019s identity, police and agencies are investigating his motive.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe do not currently have an identified motive,\u201d said Kevin Rojek, FBI Pittsburgh special agent in charge, at a briefing on Saturday night.<\/p>\n
It would be disconcerting if a diary documenting Crooks\u2019s motives were found; a lone gunman, acting alone, but leaving behind a diary is a movie we\u2019ve all seen before. And the sequels, too.<\/p>\n
The Venue<\/p>\n
From the New York Post:<\/p>\n
Crooks, of Bethel Park, Pa., squeezed off at least five to seven shots \u2014 one of which grazed Trump in the ear \u2014 at an outdoor rally in Butler, just outside Pittsburgh, according to law enforcement sources.<\/p>\n
Sources said Crooks crawled on the roof of a manufacturing plant more than 130 yards away from the stage at Butler Farm Show grounds.<\/p>\n
Here is a map from the New York Times that shows the rally site and the manufacturing plant:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/trump_assassination_map_nyt.png\")
<\/p>\n
Security at the manufacturing plant (likely to be American Glass Research) was lax[4]:<\/p>\n
I am talking to an individual who works in the building where the shooter was posted. Building does not have inside cameras. They think access likely gained via area circled in photo. <\/p>\n
They do not recall Secret Service or law enforcement sweeping building prior to event pic.twitter.com\/iiykEfPwTt<\/p>\n
\u2014 Robert Evans (The Only Robert Evans) (@IwriteOK) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
And:<\/p>\n
They have seen photos of the deceased shooter and do not recognize them. <\/p>\n
They noted before the event that security seemed weirdly lax, and their building seemed to be almost ignored prior. <\/p>\n
“If we live in a security theater\u2026this was a security 8th grade recital.” pic.twitter.com\/5MUIokkQ02<\/p>\n
\u2014 Robert Evans (The Only Robert Evans) (@IwriteOK) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
I recall reading, but cannot find again, that the cops talked to people at the plant, but only to tell them they\u2019d be using the parking lot. Here is a report of \u201ca guy\u201d sighted moving between the buildings of the manufacturing plant:<\/p>\n
JUST IN: Eyewitness says he saw the suspect at Trump’s rally go “in between one building to the next” when he alerted the police.<\/p>\n
“I noticed two officers that were looking for something or somebody.”<\/p>\n
“I was looking around myself and seeing a guy on top of one of the buildings\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/PbXx8QSnnV<\/p>\n
\u2014 Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
The question arises how Crooks picked this building, how he knew to get access, etc.<\/p>\n
The Shooting<\/p>\n
Here is an extraordinary interview from the BBC with an eyewitness to the shooting:<\/p>\n
FULL INTERVIEW with a witness, talking to @BBCNews, who says he saw a man with a gun on a building roof firing shots.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump was rushed off stage during a rally in Pennsylvania after gun shots were heard.<\/p>\n
He talked to @BBCBlindGazza \u2013 more information @BBCNews pic.twitter.com\/aWqSXbzor2<\/p>\n
\u2014 BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
The prose version, \u201cWitness says he saw gunman on roof near Trump rally\u201c:<\/p>\n
Mr Smith was listening from outside the rally and said he saw the gunman around five minutes into Trump\u2019s speech.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe noticed the guy bear-crawling up the roof of the building beside us, 50ft away,\u201d he said. \u201cHe had a rifle, we could clearly see a rifle.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re pointing at him, the police are down there running around on the ground, we\u2019re like \u2018Hey man, there\u2019s a guy on the roof with a rifle\u2019\u2026 and the police did not know what was going on.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr Smith said he tried to alert the authorities for three to four minutes, but thought they probably could not see the gunman because of the slope of the roof.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhy is there not Secret Service on all of these roofs here?\u201d he asked. \u201cThis is not a big place. \u201c[It\u2019s a] security failure, 100% security failure.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said he later saw the agents shoot the gunman: \u201cThey crawled up on the roof, they had their guns pointed at him, made sure he was dead. He was dead, and that was it \u2013 it was over.\u201d<\/p>\n
Here is what someone very near the stage itself experienced. From the Free Press:<\/p>\n
I was four feet from the stage, in a causeway with about five other journalists. My daughter, a photographer, was next to me. Her husband was next to her.<\/p>\n
Trump was back on his feet within seconds, although his red hat was knocked off his head. He was calm.<\/p>\n
I heard him shout to one of his staffers, \u201cGet my shoes!\u201d <\/p>\n
He lifted his arm in the air. I think he shouted, \u201cFight!\u201d<\/p>\n
Then he definitely shouted, \u201cUSA!\u201d The crowd chanted it back in unison.<\/p>\n
Here is a photo of the bullet whizzing toward Trump\u2019s head[5]:<\/p>\n
A remarkable photo captured by my former White House Press Corps colleague Doug Mills. <\/p>\n
Zoom in right above President Trump\u2019s shoulder and you\u2019ll see a bullet flying in the air to the right of President Trump\u2019s head following an attempted assassination. pic.twitter.com\/FqmLBCytoW<\/p>\n
\u2014 Haraz N. Ghanbari (@HarazGhanbari) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
And here is a video of Trump shouting \u201cFight! Fight!\u201d:<\/p>\n
Trump yelling \u201cFight. Fight,\u201d after getting grazed by a bullet in the ear, an inch from ending his life. <\/p>\n
No panic. No crawling on his knees to safety. The man stands up, faces the crowd, and yells \u201cFight.\u201d<\/p>\n
Historic footage. Just incredible. <\/p>\n
pic.twitter.com\/9ERhGJaia0<\/p>\n
\u2014 Lomez (@L0m3z) July 13, 2024<\/p>\n
Taleb comments:<\/p>\n
The NYT is in bad faith: any other leader (or NYT journalist) would have cowered on the floor. <\/p>\n
Trump exhibited exceptional physical courage; recognize the fact even if you disagree with the politics. pic.twitter.com\/6smqbxGg23<\/p>\n
\u2014 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
Note that there were more victims: \u201cA former fire chief attending the rally with family was killed, as was the gunman. Two other people were also critically wounded.\u201d<\/p>\n
Cui Bono<\/p>\n
Now let us ask who benefits. Curiously enough, both Trump and Biden may. I say \u201cmay\u201d rather than \u201cdo\u201d because of this salutary reminder from Stoller:<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t know why anyone assumes a big polling bump for Trump. Trump got convicted and it barely mattered. Biden showed cognitive decline and it barely mattered. No one knows anything right now.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
But let\u2019s not be nihilists. First, Trump:<\/p>\n
The first and simplest reaction comes from the New York Post (and I confess that it was mine, as well):<\/p>\n
The moment probably also won him the election.<\/p>\n
The same reaction from The Hill:<\/p>\n
\u201cPresident Trump survives this attack \u2014 he just won the election,\u201d Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) told POLITICO in a brief interview shortly after the shooting.<\/p>\n
Prediction markets agree:<\/p>\n
There are far more important things than markets, as the Trump assassination attempt makes very, very clear. But it\u2019s my job to look at this, and this is what\u2019s just happened to the odds of a Trump victory in the betting markets, according to Real Clear Politics: pic.twitter.com\/sYxqrM1Ia5<\/p>\n
\u2014 John Authers (@johnauthers) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
But then I remembered [checks campaign timer] that 114 days is a long time in politics.<\/p>\n
Axios draws attention to the effect on apartisan voters:<\/p>\n
The biggest electoral impact from Saturday\u2019s stunning events could come courtesy of low-information and politically disengaged Americans, who are expected to make up a decisive voting bloc.<\/p>\n
The attempted assassination was so shocking that it immediately cut through a wide range of cultural and digital bubbles, drawing mostly sympathetic reactions from influencers, athletes and CEOs.<\/p>\n
Elon Musk, for example, immediately endorsed Trump in a post that racked up more than 80 million views on X.<\/p>\n
YouTuber Jake Paul, who has legions of young followers, tweeted: \u201cIf it isn\u2019t apparent enough who God wants to win. When you try and kill God\u2019s angels and saviors of the world it just makes them bigger.\u201d<\/p>\n
Axios, however, equates \u201celectoral impact\u201d with popular sentiment; however, the salient point is the effect on low information voters in the swing states where the election will be won or lost. However, Pennsylvania is a key swing state (which is why I keep drawing a red box around it on the RealClearPolitics poll averages chart), and while I hesitate to say that Crooks just sewed up Pennsylvania for Trump, he certainly did Trump no harm. I would speculate that turnout in the non-Philly, non-Pittsburgh counties will be, well, fervent.<\/p>\n
The Telegraph argues that the assassination attempt reinforces Trump\u2019s messaging:<\/p>\n
Trump has built his campaign on the idea that everyone is out to get him. Federal prosecutors, judges, election officials, rival politicians and journalists have all been accused of trying to bring down his campaign and prevent his return to the White House.<\/p>\n
Many of those claims have rightly been contested. But after the incident in Pennsylvania, even Trump\u2019s worst enemies cannot deny that there are some who would rather see him dead than re-elected.<\/p>\n
Trump supporters urge that the attempt reinforces Trump\u2019s ethos:<\/p>\n
And people say, why do people like Trump so much? Why are his supporters, why are they so loyal to Trump? You know why? Because of what we saw today. Because he got up after getting hit by a bullet or something, and he said, I\u2019m here basically fighting for you, and fight on. And we don\u2019t have enough people like that in this country in politics.<\/p>\n
But Biden may also benefit. First, his staff can wrap him up in tissue paper again. Axios:<\/p>\n
For President Biden, it was an easy decision to reach out to former President Trump, pull down his political ads and return to the White House.Biden advisers were unanimous that he needs to take his fight directly to Trump.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a difficult case to make against a man who came within several millimeters of losing his life.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s now a broad recognition that Biden is facing a delicate balancing act in the coming weeks: He must continue to warn that Trump is a threat to democracy, while acknowledging the recent threat to Trump\u2019s life.<\/p>\n
Second, out of deference and respect to Trump in this difficult time, the Biden campaign can save some money:<\/p>\n
The Democratic National Committee told Fox News that it is in the process of pulling down ads that it went up with on Monday on 57 municipal buses in Milwaukee.<\/p>\n
Third and most importantly, I speculate that the Republican National Convention plus Trump\u2019s cannily postponed selection of a vice-present, would already have sucked all the oxygen out of the room. The Trump assassination attempt will \u201cblot out the sun\u201d (I somehow did not preserve the link to the Democratic strategist who used that phrase). The campaign to unelect Biden has depended critically on constant, incestuous dogpiling in the press. That coverage will be much, much harder to get, and so indeed Biden may run out the clock. (Alert reader antidlc helpfully points out that the DNC may set a date for its virtual roll call before the end of the month.)<\/p>\n
Conclusion<\/p>\n
I really wanted to have a section about how the blame cannons are being deployed, but time presses, and so I must leave them on the cutting room floor. To conclude, I\u2019ve aggregated some of reactions to Trump\u2019s assassination that are more kind or humane, rather than less; tending to reject the Schmittian view that the essential dichotomy of politics is the friend\/enemy distinction:<\/p>\n
First, Russell Brand:<\/p>\n
Trump Assassination Attempt Failed.<\/p>\n
What now? pic.twitter.com\/V2thuSJJM8<\/p>\n
\u2014 Russell Brand (@rustyrockets) July 13, 2024<\/p>\n
Second, Robert F. Kennedy, Junior:<\/p>\n
A truly presidential and beautifully poetic, compassionate, and inspiring commentary by @RobertKennedyJr on @NewsNation about the attempted assassination of President Trump. pic.twitter.com\/frDGF5IUVH<\/p>\n
\u2014 Jaya Phillips (@iamJayaLove) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
Third, Melania Trump:<\/p>\n
pic.twitter.com\/IGIWzL6SMJ<\/p>\n
\u2014 MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
(I actually found Melania Trump\u2019s letter touching. Odd, but touching. Note that all these reactions, in their different ways, appeal to the \u201cbetter angels of our nature\u201d instead of vacuous notions of civility.)<\/p>\n
Lincoln, in his First Inaugural, got it wrong:<\/p>\n
We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.<\/p>\n
In fact, slaveholders and abolitionists were enemies. But can anyone truly say that the country faces such a \u201cpolarizing\u201d issue today? (Perhaps it should \u2014 climate, for example; or, well, capitalism \u2014 but does it?) Perhaps this time we can get it right, or more right than wrong. Of course, this would take an extraordinary turnaround from \u201cdefiance\u201d to generosity of spirit but what are we \u201cfighting\u201d for?<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] On Trump\u2019s fist pump and whether the Secret Service should have permitted it, The American Conservative:<\/p>\n
An assassin can kill a president, but cowardice is what kills a movement. President Donald Trump didn\u2019t give his would-be murderer what the gunman wanted. Trump survived the shots, then he did something profound\u2014he waved back the Secret Service agents shielding him, freeing his bloodied face up from the scrum, and, with a look of defiance, raised his fist and said, \u201cFight!\u201d<\/p>\n
He shouldn\u2019t have done it, according to the rules of presidential security. And the Secret Service were obviously torn between the urgency of covering the former president and getting him to safety, and allowing him to do what he was determined to do. They parted just far enough for Trump to show his face and pump his fist. His life and theirs were at risk.<\/p>\n
But the risk had to be taken. The United States can\u2019t be led by a coward or by someone who looks like one under fire. Trump knew in a split second what a leader had to do in that situation. He had to show courage. Morale is a nation\u2019s blood. Trump refused to let the assassin shed it, even as his own wounds bled.<\/p>\n
Despite the garish prose, I think Trump was right to do what he did. We can\u2019t have the stagehands directing the stars, after all. NOTE Re Kayfabe: Could Trump possibly have converted himself from a Heel to a Face?!<\/p>\n
[2] The PAC was the Progressive Turnout Project:<\/p>\n
The Pennsylvania voter file lists him as a 20-year old registered Republican, while FEC contribution records show a single $15 ActBlue contribution earmarked to Progressive Turnout Project (same street address for both), so there’s something for everyone to freak out over. pic.twitter.com\/YtuCM29xmC<\/p>\n
\u2014 Rob Pyers (@rpyers) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
Progressive Turnout Project\u2019s email consultant was the cartoonishly evil Mothership Strategies. Mothership Strategies was not on my Bingo card!<\/p>\n
[3] Crooks is said not to have had a criminal record, so where did the DNA come from?<\/p>\n
[4] I\u2019m not entirely happy with this account; the writer has done work for Bellingcat.<\/p>\n
[5] There is a theory running round that the blood on Trump\u2019s face comes from the shattered glass of a TelePrompter, but so what?<\/p>\n
APPENDIX: The Cassandras<\/p>\n
Here are some of the people who called it. <\/p>\n
(August 30, 2023) Tucker Carlson, \u201cTucker Carlson stokes conspiracies, claims U.S. is \u2018speeding towards\u2019 assassination of Trump\u201c, NBC: \u201cIf you begin with criticism, then you go to protest, then you go to impeachment, now you go to indictment and none of them work. What\u2019s next? Graph it out, man. We\u2019re speeding towards assassination, obviously. \u2026 They have decided \u2014 permanent Washington, both parties have decided \u2014 that there\u2019s something about Trump that\u2019s so threatening to them, they just can\u2019t have him.\u201d<\/p>\n
(August 31, 2023) Yves Smith, \u201cThe Other Option for Containing Trump\u201c: \u201cIt\u2019s not as if this is the first time Tucker has brought up the possibility that Trump could be assassinated by members of the power structure.\u201d<\/p>\n
Steve Bannon (June 2024), the Guardian: \u201cIn a Guardian interview in June, Steve Bannon \u2013 a Trump adviser and former White House chief strategist \u2013 spoke of his concerns that the Republican nominee would be assassinated before the election in November. \u2018It\u2019s my number one fear,\u2019 Bannon said, speaking before he began a four-month prison sentence for defying a congressional subpoena. \u2018Assassination has to be at the top of the list and I believe that the woman that\u2019s running the Secret Service part is not doing her job.’\u201d (I can\u2019t find the original when I search on these quotes, and I tried several search engines. Readers?)<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Sadly, this tweet supposedly from wint is a fake:<\/p>\n
yes its real. please follow me for more real shit <\/p>\n
\u2014 wint (@dril) July 14, 2024<\/p>\n
But:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/dril_hoax.png\")
<\/p>\n
APPENDIX: The Lighter Side<\/p>\n
Via:<\/p>\n
This situation reminds me of this [Your Favorite Ethnicity Here (YFEH)] joke:<\/p>\n
Two YFEHs are hiding on the side of the road waiting to try and kill Hitler. They wait and wait but after many hours Hitler still hasn\u2019t come down the road where they expect him. After a long time of waiting, one man turns to the other man and says \u201cGeez! Where is this guy?\u201d And the other man turns to him and replies \u201cI don\u2019t know\u2026 I hope nothing happened to him.\u201d<\/p>\n
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