By Lambert Strether of Corrente<\/p>\n
Readers, I hope this is the last time I must ask you to be patient, at least for awhile. Because I kmew I would be traveling, I did a good deal of work early, and so I hope I don\u2019t miss anything essential. For those who celebrate, Biden\u2019s essential NATO presser is at 5:00pm, past press time, sadly. Perhaps readers will comment. \u2013lambert<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Great Horned Owl, Bubo virginianus, Hato El Milaglro, Cojedes, Venezuela. \u201cNatural song by pair.\u201d Sounds like a kazoo at the start!<\/p>\n
Who? Who?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Biden Administration<\/p>\n
Good, decent, etc., etc.:<\/p>\n
Since Biden took office, the Pentagon budget has grown by $212 billion and the budget for social & economic programs has shrunk by $30 billion: pic.twitter.com\/tQEfVVH6LQ<\/p>\n
\u2014 Stephen Semler (@stephensemler) July 11, 2024<\/p>\n
But not an issue, of course.<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than a half a year to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s RCP Poll Averages:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/rcp_2024-07-05.png\")
<\/p>\n
First post-debate polling: Trump jumps a full point in the 5-way national race, which a Biden supporter might find concerning. OTOH, the Swing States seem relatively unaffected. Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump\u2019s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s try to get our arms round the detail with some buckets:<\/p>\n
The Calendar<\/p>\n
Calendar is first for a reason.<\/p>\n
Balloting:<\/p>\n
From one county clerk:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/voting_calendar.png\")
<\/p>\n
Virtual Convention:<\/p>\n
\u201cHow the calendar favors Joe Biden\u201d [Politico]. \u201cWhile there are technically 40 days remaining until the convention formally begins, the window for replacing Biden is actually much tighter since the party plans to designate Biden as the nominee in a virtual roll call that takes place in advance of the actual convention. The exact date of that roll call hasn\u2019t been established yet but it will be sometime after the DNC\u2019s July 19 Rules Committee and July 21 Credentials Committee meetings take place. (The Democratic National Committee voted to move forward with a virtual roll call before the calamitous June 27 presidential debate, in response to a threat from Ohio Republicans that would have kept Biden off the ballot there).\u201d \u2022\u00a0Note, however, that the date has not been set, showing that the correlation of forces within the Democrat Party has not yet resolved.<\/p>\n
The NATO Presser:<\/p>\n
\u201c\u201dHow the calendar favors Joe Biden\u201d [Politico]. \u201d Biden has made clear in recent days he intends to be the nominee \u2014 and the most obvious hurdle standing in his way at the moment is another meltdown in a high-stakes situation. There aren\u2019t many of those chances left before the Democratic convention kicks off in mid-August. After Thursday\u2019s press conference, Biden needs only to run out the clock. Next week, there is a televised interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt scheduled for Monday, but Biden has already proved he can meet that bar. He didn\u2019t receive rave reviews for his interview last week with ABC News\u2019 George Stephanopoulos, but it didn\u2019t damage his cause. In any case, starting this weekend, the media oxygen will be sucked up by the Republican National Convention and the rollout of Trump\u2019s vice presidential nominee. And since Congress will be out of session, Democratic members will be out of town, diminishing opportunities to hatch a consensus plan designed to convince Biden to step aside.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cBiden Faces Fresh Calls to Withdraw as Democrats Fear Electoral Rout\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cMr. Biden\u2019s strategy to save his candidacy appears to be aimed at running out the clock. And every day he defies pressure to step aside makes the logistics of replacing him more difficult. On Wednesday, he appeared to have survived another day, as Capitol Hill remained mired in a state of uncertainty and division during what lawmakers had deemed to be a critical week for Mr. Biden\u2019s campaign. Intense focus was turning to Mr. Biden\u2019s performance at a NATO news conference on Thursday, which Democrats said would be a critical \u2014 and perhaps final \u2014 test of the president\u2019s ability to stay in the race.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cToday is Game 7 for Joe Biden\u201d [The Arena] \u201cThe Press Conference: Joe Biden must not only give the performance of his life at his 6:30 PM press conference, but he has to change the subject. I\u2019m not suggesting he \u2018wag the dog,\u2019 but it would be nice if he had a major surprise announcement that immediately redirects everyone\u2019s attention to what matters most\u2014who can do the job. On the other hand, if Biden\u2019s press conference is mediocre, or heaven forbid, bad, it\u2019s over.\u201d <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cThree reasons the calendar could be on Biden\u2019s side as divided Dems fret\u201d [Roll Call]. \u201c\u201dBiden is outplaying all of his Democratic adversaries right now. The President controls the calendar, the delegates, and ultimately the power,\u201d David Jolly, a former Republican House member, said in an email\u2026. Biden campaign aides for months have bragged they have a superior ground operation across the country, but especially in the six to eight battleground states that likely will decide the election. If Biden stepped aside, Democratic strategists this week said it is unclear if, or how much of, Biden\u2019s state-by-state organizations would cleanly transfer to the eventual nominee\u2026 That\u2019s a reason Jolly said of congressional Democrats: \u2018Unless a leading Democrat launches an organized effort to flip 2,000 delegates at the [Democratic] convention, then they\u2019re just meeting to meet \u2014 and with no discernible strategy to rally adversarial Democrats to.\u2019 The vast Biden campaign apparatus is a big reason why, if he sticks by his vow to run, Democrats might have to accept another thing Pelosi said Wednesday: \u2018Whatever he decides, we go with.’\u201d \u2022 The ground game takes money\u2026. <\/p>\n
Electeds<\/p>\n
Obama (and Clooney):<\/p>\n
BFFs:<\/p>\n
#BlueMAGA : \u201cWho cares what Clooney thinks! We still haven\u2019t heard from Obama!\u201d<\/p>\n
Everyone: pic.twitter.com\/AqwuNdMTYa<\/p>\n
\u2014 TheKrakenSays (@thekrakensays) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
Good call:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/obama_axis-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Pelosi:<\/p>\n
\u201cPelosi hints at something big coming\u201d [The Editorial Board]. \u201che Times stepped in it this morning when it reported that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, on \u2018Morning Joe,\u2019 that the president should \u2018reconsider\u2019 his decision to keep running. According to the paper, she said Joe Biden \u2018should continue to weigh the matter, after he made it clear this week that he\u2019s committed to staying in the race.\u2019 \u2018Reconsider\u2019 is the problem. \u2018Continue to weigh the matter\u2019 isn\u2019t. She said the latter, not the former. That\u2019s a highly nuanced difference, obviously, but the Times decided to interpret the ambiguity in such a way that fits into its narrative about the president being too old to continue running for president, and the Democrats experiencing \u2018deepening divisions\u2019 over the question of whether he should. And for that, the Times earned this rebuke from Pelosi (per Jaala Brown, a Capitol Hill reporter for CBS News): \u2018I think the president is great. And there are some misrepresentations of what I have said. I never said he should reconsider his decision. The decision is the president\u2019s. I don\u2019t know what\u2019s happened to The New York Times that they make up news [lol]. But if that\u2019s why you\u2019re here, it isn\u2019t true.’\u201d \u2022 <\/p>\n
Lambert here: I\u2019ve been mentally comparing Biden\u2019s strategy to the game of \u201cChicken,\u201d \u201cin which two drivers drive toward each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash, but if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a \u2018chicken\u2019, meaning a coward.\u201d Supposing the road to be straight, one winning strategy to get the other driver to swerve is to throw your steering wheel out the window \u2014 but you\u2019ve got to do it first! That is what Biden did on Sunday and Monday: \u201c\u2018I am not going anywhere.\u201d In response, Pelosi, as we see above, served up one of her classic word salads, from which we might extract a Minimuim Viable Signal that achieved two goals: (1) Calmed things down \u2019til NATO was done (see discussion of the NATO presser above) and (2) reminded Biden, by its very effects, that his game of chicken is not linear, i.e. not a straight road; there are more than two dimensions to consider. There could be, say, snipers by the side of the road, ready to shoot out his tires. There could be minions strewing caltrops on the road itself. There could, who knows, be earth movers regrading the road. Pelosi \u2014 who, let us remember, is an expert at counting votes \u2014 has created options for herself, and Biden must know she has created options. Now, what Pelosi will exercise those options, that I cannot say (except, I should think, prevent both drivers from dying). Perhaps Biden will ace NATO presser. Or perhaps not! <\/p>\n
Obama and Pelosi<\/p>\n
\u201cPlaybook: What Obama and Pelosi are doing about Biden\u201d [Politico]. \u201cWhile Obama did not encourage or advise Clooney to say what he said, he also didn\u2019t object to it, we\u2019re told from people familiar with their exchange. The lack of pushback is an eye-popping revelation given that the former president was one of the first big voices defending Biden following his abysmal debate performance (while many of his former aides have been some of the incumbent\u2019s biggest critics)\u2026. In private conversations with lawmakers, we\u2019re told, the former speaker hasn\u2019t tried to hide her disdain for the situation that party now finds itself in. She\u2019s suggested to people that Biden won\u2019t win this November and should step aside, according to about a half-dozen lawmakers and others who have spoken with her or are familiar with these conversations. In fact, she\u2019s advised some Democrats in swing districts to do whatever they have to do to secure their own reelections \u2014 even if it means asking Biden to relinquish his place atop the ticket. Pelosi has advised those members, however, to wait until this week\u2019s NATO Summit is finished out of respect for Biden and national security writ large. Some members, we\u2019re told, have already started drafting statements of what they want to say, ready to drop once foreign leaders leave town.\u201d \u2022 Pelosi, of course, denies all this\u2026.<\/p>\n
The Squad:<\/p>\n
Strange bedfellows or not strange at all? <\/p>\n
Why Bernie, the Squad, and other prominent progressives have been among the more outspoken Biden defenders:<\/p>\n
\u2014 Uncertainty about Harris’ higher electability
\u2014 Resignation in face of Biden stubbornness
\u2014 Lack of confidence in ability\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/4mk4nMdbDr<\/p>\n
\u2014 Daniel Marans (@danielmarans) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
That, plus AOC doesn\u2019t want to overthrow Pelosi, or anything Pelosi represents; she wants to be Pelosi.<\/p>\n
Bernie:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/sanders.png\")
<\/p>\n
Question begging!<\/p>\n
Random Democrats:<\/p>\n
\u201cPeter Welch becomes first Democratic senator to call for Biden to drop out\u201d [Just the News]. \u201cWelch said his constituents are \u2018terrified of another Trump presidency,\u2019 but praised Vice President Kamala Harris as a \u2018capable, proven leader\u2019who can replace Biden as the Democratic nominee. Other Democratic senators have expressed fear over Biden\u2019s reelection chances against Trump, but none besides Welch have called for him to exit the race. \u201d<\/p>\n
Wait, perhaps the Trump Threat isn\u2019t existential? At least not for some electeds?<\/p>\n
Here’s the GALLING exchange with @ezraklein about his conversations with Top Democrats who are resigned to Trump. pic.twitter.com\/fy0pxkKann<\/p>\n
\u2014 Tim Miller (@Timodc) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
Black Women and Party Loyalists<\/p>\n
\u201cStacey Abrams: Biden is still best bet against Trump\u201d [Stacey Abrams, Atlanta Journal-Constitution]. \u201cThe anti-Biden doom loop feels loud right now, but it is largely a phenomenon among those who obsessively follow the news or want to make the news. Most of the voters Biden has won and needs to win again already know his foibles \u2014 and they aren\u2019t turning in droves to say, \u2018I\u2019m now voting for the bombastic fascistic liar.\u2019 \u2026 Let\u2019s be clear: The wishful benefits of a contested convention or a late-stage exit are vastly outweighed by the potential harm. President Joe Biden has the integrity, moral character and record needed to beat Donald Trump in November. Our path to victory lies in standing by Biden and understanding the high stakes of this election.\u201d <\/p>\n
Perhaps a better source:<\/p>\n
Maxine Waters: \u201cIt ain\u2019t going to be no other Democratic candidate \u2014 it\u2019s going to be Biden.\u201d<\/p>\n
I trust Waters. In 2006, she was the only Democrat to oppose Joe Lieberman in his primary. And she was one of the few CBC members to criticize Obama. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 8, 2024<\/p>\n
Perhaps an even better source: <\/p>\n
Biden being 80+ in 2024 is not some surprise. These people should have been looking for another candidate years ago. <\/p>\n
Not a month before the Convention and four months before the election.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Shay Stewart Bouley (@blackgirlinmain) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
Nice of Ro to say:<\/p>\n
As Democrats, let us acknowledge the thousands of staffers who are giving their heart & soul to the Biden admin & campaign. They are displaying guts in persevering through the challenges & criticism. They are true believers & represent the best of public service & our party.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) July 11, 2024<\/p>\n
On the other hand, \u201ctrue believers\u201d\u2026 Rhinoceros is a wonderful play.<\/p>\n
Donors<\/p>\n
Where the heck was Clooney a month ago:<\/p>\n
In George Clooney’s NYT op-ed urging Biden to drop out, he says he saw how cognitively crippled Biden rwas at the Hollywood fund-raiser he co-hosted with Obama last month.<\/p>\n
Remember: the media accused anyone saying this *at the time* of being a far-right disinformation agent. pic.twitter.com\/j5a87XFcAo<\/p>\n
\u2014 Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
Or, for that matter, the rest of the great and the good at Clooney\u2019s fundraiser:<\/p>\n
Everyone thought the same thing, but nobody said anything publicly <\/p>\n
\u2014 Andy Kaczynski (@KFILE) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
If I had to pick a proximate cause for the dogpile \u2014 not the whole mess, just the dogpile \u2014 it woud be donors (whose stupidity and laziness is such that they know less about Biden than any Naked Capitalism reader). Why? Because they\u2019re rich. Noboby says no to them. The signature: They think any problem \u2014 to be generous, outside whatever their limited business expertise may be \u2014 can be solved with money. Unfortunately, that\u2019s not true for the electoral calendar. So Clooney can fiddle and diddle for a whole month, along with all his rich friends. And speaking of George Clooney:<\/p>\n
I can\u2019t tell what\u2019s funnier \u2013 Biden trying to out-macho George Clooney, Nick Kristof\u2019s slavish rush to Clooney\u2019s defense, or the apparently universal belief that George Clooney\u2019s opinion is what really matters in politics. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) July 11, 2024<\/p>\n
\u201cUS election 2024: People\u2019s will or donors\u2019 will?\u201d [Al Jazeera]. \u201cIn Biden\u2019s case, though, it is noteworthy that the president\u2019s alleged incompetence was only elevated to the status of Very Important Issue when donors got their panties in a bunch. This, despite the fact that, prior to the debate, an Ipsos poll found that a mere 28 percent of likely voters in the US were confident in Biden\u2019s \u2018mental fitness to be president\u2019. Following the debate, this figure dropped to 20 percent. In short, it is just another reminder of the inordinate power and influence wielded by America\u2019s donor class in a shameless plutocracy euphemised as \u2018democracy\u2019 \u2013 where voting and other democratic charades barely conceal a reality in which the people\u2019s will could not matter less.\u201d \u2022 Why not just dispense with the cumbersome and messy primary process and focus group the Forbes billionaire\u2019s list? Or better, wire them all up to psychometric devices and parade the candidates in front of them, beauty contest-style. Check the dials, and whichever candidate gets the audience most sweaty and excited, nominate them! Just be sure to do it close enough to election day that they don\u2019t change their minds\u2026.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201c\u2018It\u2019s already disastrous\u2019: Biden campaign fundraising takes a major hit\u201d [NBC News]. \u201cOne of the people close to the re-election efforts said this week that the campaign believed major donors who have threatened to jump ship after the debate would come around \u2014 if only to avoid helping former President Donald Trump by sitting out the race. Biden aides had said privately that \u2018if major donors don\u2019t come along, we\u2019ll do it without them.\u2019 One of the sources said several unplanned fundraisers were in the early planning stages for the month.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Problematic, then, that Biden\u2019s strategists chose the expensive ground game route.<\/p>\n
\u201cDems fear Biden\u2019s fundraising is \u2018cratering’\u201d [Politico]. \u201cBiden is scheduled to appear at several high-dollar fundraisers this month, including one in Austin early next week, and a West Coast swing is scheduled, according to a source familiar with the planning of the events.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cAfter a Bruising Day, Biden Faces a New Test\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cSome donors said they still backed Biden, including Alex Soros, son of George Soros, and James Costos, a former HBO executive who attended the Los Angeles fund-raiser.\u201d <\/p>\n
The Spooks<\/p>\n
Biden is, in essence, saying: \u201cGo ahead and shoot me\u201d (in keeping with the game of chicken). <\/p>\n
The Press<\/p>\n
The savage irony is that if the Press will emerge more powerful than ever if, after declaring Biden\u2019s cognitive ability an unstory for, well, donkey\u2019s years, they manage to take him down:<\/p>\n
The Clooney op-ed is an epistemic disaster.<\/p>\n
It admits that, at the fundraiser he describes, Biden’s decline was obvious. That’s the same fundraiser with Clinton and Obama where the NYT gaslit us by writing that the footage of Obama dragging a vacant Biden was a cheap fake.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Peter Spiliakos (@petespiliakos) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
Skip this if NSFW material offends or triggers you, but I can\u2019t resist:<\/p>\n
A source close to the White House is reporting that President Biden is no longer capable of producing forceful and high volume ejaculations. His once powerful, thick loads now merely trickle out.<\/p>\n
\u2014 andrew (@mrnastynodrama) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
The Polls<\/p>\n
\u201cBiden\u2019s poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference, new report says\u201d (press release) [Northeastern Global News]. \u201cLed by David Lazer, university distinguished professor of political science and computer science at Northeastern, the report indicates that the debate had little if any impact on people\u2019s voting preference. Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the dangers of making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to the media interpreting data. \u2018Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very tiny shift that was totally insignificant statistically like it was evidence that it was a shift toward Trump after the debate.\u2019\u2026 Seeing the dominant narrative coming out of the debate, Lazer and the team at CHIP50 decided to test the hypothesis that Biden had lost ground in public opinion after the debate. Notably, Lazer says, they didn\u2019t survey two different cross-sectional groups of people before and after the debate like most polls. Instead, the team was able to survey the same group of respondents from a survey conducted before the debate. Lazer says using the same group of people helps make the results more precise, which is important in polling that inherently has a margin of error. What the report finds is that Biden held on to 94% of the people who said they would support him before the debate. For Trump, 86% of people who said they would support him before the debate said they would do so after the debate. \u2018What we see is that there is some churn \u2013\u2013 maybe 10 percent or so of people change what they answer \u2013\u2013 but that the net result is not a movement away from Biden,\u2019 Lazer says. \u2018If anything, it seems that Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump.\u2019\u201d \u2022 So Biden slipping a cog had the same effect as Trump\u2019s 34 million felony convictions?<\/p>\n
\u201cWho Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?\u201d [FiveThirtyEight]. \u201cIt\u2019s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 492 out of 1,000 of our model\u2019s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 505 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives. It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden\u2019s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win \u2014 clear in the opposite direction of national polls. 538\u2019s focus on uncertainty partially explains why our election forecast has not moved much in reaction to new national polls showing Trump gaining on Biden. In effect, we are hedging our bets, putting more weight on the so-called \u201cfundamentals\u201d because we believe the campaign could be volatile or polls could be biased.\u201d \u2022 Model, FWIW.<\/p>\n
\u201cTracking 2024\u201d [Morning Consult]. \u201c[W[ith Biden forcefully telegraphing his intent to remain atop the ticket \u2014 and a critical mass of Democrats on Capitol Hill apparently falling in line for him, at least for now \u2014 I wanted to use today\u2019s edition to highlight a shift in our tracking that seems most salient now. It\u2019s our buzz metric, which tracks what voters have heard about certain politicians or issues over the past week. Voters have three options on this question: They can say whether what they\u2019ve heard about a person or thing is mostly positive or mostly negative, or they can say that they haven\u2019t heard anything at all. Of all of the post-debate data I\u2019ve seen, it\u2019s Biden\u2019s buzz numbers from our last two surveys that are most jarring\u2026.. It\u2019s a devastating shift that threatens to disprove what appears to be the Biden campaign\u2019s prevailing theory for 2024: That ultimately this election, just like 2022 and 2020, will be more about Trump than it will be about Biden, benefiting Democrats just as it did in those past two elections.\u201d \u2022 Handy chart:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/buzz.png\")
<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Bonfire of the Democrats\u201d [The Bulwark]. \u201cBut there\u2019s another thread that\u2019s emerging: voters comparing Joe Biden to their aging relatives who won\u2019t give up their car keys. That\u2019s not an analogy you want to hear with democracy on the line. On Wednesday, these comparisons were more common than ever among the voters I talked to\u2014a group made up of those who cast ballots for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 but were now undecided. \u2018I\u2019ve seen firsthand how difficult it is to get, you know, mom\u2019s driver\u2019s license or aging parents\u2019 license away from them,\u2019 one participant said. \u2018What does that look like when it\u2019s the president of the United States?\u2019 This is fundamental to understanding voters\u2019 fears about Biden\u2019s age. They are disinclined to give him the benefit of the doubt because many have seen this all before. They don\u2019t want their octogenarian father (or grandfather) running the country, let alone driving a car. Most of these voters believed Biden should leave the race: \u2018Letting him continue to run is like not taking the keys away from your parents,\u2019 one said. \u2018Anyone\u2019s letting him run to this point is just being weak.\u2019<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Lambert here: How a great nation, the world\u2019s oldest democracy, and the oldest political party in the world select a Presidential candidate:<\/p>\n
Only one person. Literally only one right now or for the foreseeable future, can bring EXACTLY what @TimRyan rightly says the country is dying for\u2014without any need for introduction or image-making. Only one can deliver a 17-point swing in the polls.
Only. One.
Here\u2019s the plan: pic.twitter.com\/orT4k0GByz<\/p>\n
\u2014 Lee Spieckerman | Policy+Media Unorthodox (@spieckerman) July 6, 2024<\/p>\n
Alternatively:<\/p>\n
Once Biden has been put out to pasture, we will see the most extravagant media propaganda campaign in history. It will put the Obama hope and change stuff to shame. Democrats will be portrayed as having done the responsible thing to save democracy itself. Kamala will be hailed as\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) July 10, 2024<\/p>\n
Always something to look forward to.<\/p>\n
<— Our Famously Free Press\n<\/p>\n
\u2013><\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
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Readers, there is no good news here at all, and this data does not include the Fourth of July weekend. It would sure be handy to have Biobot still in operation, so we could have a single indicator for infection, but of course that was not to be.<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago. New York is a hot again, and Covid is spreading up the Maine Coast just in time for the Fourth of July weekend, in another triumph for Administration policy. <\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in \u201ccurrent view\u201d tab, I think white states here have experienced \u201cno change,\u201d as opposed to have no data.)<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn\u2019t even run back to 1\/21\/23, as it used to, but now starts 1\/1\/24. There\u2019s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn\u2019t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that\u2019s why the shape of the curve has changed.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. <\/p>\n
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED up.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
Inflation: \u201cUnited States Consumer Price Index (CPI)\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe consumer price index in the United States rose by 3% year-over-year to 314.18 points in June 2024, following a 3.3% increase in May and below the market consensus of a 3.1% advance.\u201d<\/p>\n
Employment Situation: \u201c\u0131United States Initial Jobless Claims\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 17,000 from the prior week to 222,000 on the period ending July 6th, reaching a new 5-week low, and below market expectations of 236,000. The claim count was considerably below the elevated levels from June but remained firmly above the averages from February to April.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 52 Neutral (previous close: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 44 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 11 at 11:22:01 AM ET. <\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cEngineering Principles for Building Financial Systems\u201d [wasteman.codes]. \u201cWhen data is immutable, you have a record of what the state of the system was at any given time. This makes it really easy to recompute the world from previous states, because no state is every lost.\u201d Who wants that? Where\u2019s the space for accounting control fraud? More: \u201d Even though that balance was incorrect, we want an audit trail of what the balance was at any given moment.\u201d \u2022\u00a0No, we really don\u2019t. I say use Excel. <\/p>\n
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/yard.jpeg\")
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TH writes: \u201cWe stopped at a yard sale in San Pedro (CA) over the weekend and the neighboring house had this sweet little garden.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n
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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!\n<\/p>\n
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