By Lambert Strether of Corrente<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Eyebrowed Wren-Babbler, Ho Ke Go Reservoir, Ha Tinh, Vietnam. Lots of jungle noise!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
(1) Early voting and October surprises.<\/p>\n
(2) Trump and the Latino vote.<\/p>\n
(3) Biden and the Latino vote.<\/p>\n
(4) Mask warriors?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Biden Administration<\/p>\n
\u201cUS officials don\u2019t see clear path to ending war in Gaza as cease-fire talks stall\u201d [Politico]. \u201c\u2018No one is confident this deal is going to move forward in the way the administration had hoped,\u2019 said one of the officials, who was briefed by the White House about the state of the cease-fire negotiations. \u2018There are so many unknowns.’\u201d \u2022 I was about to say \u201cOctober Surprise,\u201d but then I remembered early voting. Here is a table of early voting start dates, with the Swing States helpfully highlighted:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/early_voting-e1718906826830.png\")
<\/p>\n
So maybe a mid-September surprise would be better, if it would help pick up Arizona and Georgia. OTOH, October might still work \u2014 depending on the deal \u2014 for Michigan (big Muslim population). And then of course there\u2019s Ukraine. (I love that Pennsylvania, the key swing state, is \u201cvaried.\u201d It would be. We\u2019ll have to let the pros figure out where it falls on the calendar.)<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than a half a year to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
RCP Poll Averages, May 24:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/rcp_2024-06-14-e1718641688460.png\")
<\/p>\n
Still waiting for some discernible effect from Trump\u2019s conviction (aside from, I suppose, his national numbers rising). Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan\u2019s court affects the polling, and if so, how.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cPoll: Latino voters trust Trump on immigration over Biden\u201d [Axios]. \u201cOnce reliably Democratic voters, many Latinos are increasingly identifying as independent, and working-class voters are leaning more toward the GOP. An estimated 36.2 million U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote in this year\u2019s election. An Equis poll released Tuesday of 1,592 registered Latino voters in seven battleground states found 41% of Hispanic voters trust Trump on immigration compared to 38% for Biden. The problem for Democrats and Biden \u2018is great uncertainty in support\u2019 for the president among Latino voters, Carlos Odio, co-founder and senior vice president for research at Equis Labs, told reporters Tuesday. Democrats don\u2019t hold the advantage they once did with Latinos on immigration, Oido adds.<\/p>\n
Yes, but: Immigration has shown to be lower on the list of concerns among Latinos according to various Axios-Ipsos Latino Polls in partnership with Noticias Telemundo. The top issue has consistently been inflation or the economy. \u2018Immigration has never been the top issue for Latino voters. But at various critical moments, it played a role in differentiating between the parties for Latinos, even among those who themselves are not immigrants.\u2019\u2026. Biden\u2019s move this week to grant protection to half a million undocumented people with citizen spouses could \u2018move the needle among Latino voters,\u2019 per Odio. 72% of Latinos in the survey who said they do not currently support Biden said they would be more likely to vote for him if he put such a program in place.\u201d <\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cTrump\u2019s Campaign Has Lost Whatever Substance It Once Had\u201d [The Atlantic]. \u201cDonald Trump\u2019s 2016 campaign was, among other things, one of the most impressive displays of branding on a large scale, in a short time, ever. There were hats. There were flags. And above all, there were slogans. \u2018Make America Great Again.\u2019 \u2018Build the wall.\u2019 \u2018Lock her up.\u2019 And later, \u2018Drain the swamp,\u2019 which Trump conceded on the stump that he\u2019d initially hated. No matter: Crowds loved it, which was good enough for Trump to decide that he did, too. One peculiarity of Trump\u2019s 2024 campaign is the absence of any similar mantra. At some recent rallies, neither Trump nor the audience has even uttered \u2018Build the wall,\u2019 once a standard. Crowds are reverting instead to generic \u2018U-S-A\u2019 chants or, as at a recent Phoenix rally, \u2018Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit!,\u2019 which has a winning simplicity but doesn\u2019t have the specificity and originality of its predecessors. In their place, Trump\u2019s stump speech has become dominated by grievances about the wrongs he believes have been done to him and his promises to get even for them. It doesn\u2019t quite create the festive atmosphere of eight years ago, when many attendees were clearly having a great time. Where the new, more prosaic feeling lacks the uplift of the past, though, it has still managed to generate enough enthusiasm that Trump leads in many polls and could return to the White House in a few months.\u201d \u2022 I like this granular style of analysis very much, but I\u2019m not sure I agree with it. For one thing, it\u2019s also possible that MAGA and its paraphernalia are now so deep in the culture \u2014 2024 \u2013 2016 = 8, after all \u2014 that it doesn\u2019t need to be reinforced at the rallies. Based solely on my admittedly hasty analysis of Trump\u2019s Vegas speech (which I did at least read several times): (1) Trump, in my view, goes into the lawfare, but doesn\u2019t swell on it; the speech pivoted on the border, not Trump\u2019s grievances, (Trump also joked about his grievances, like the heat, the teleprompter, nobody caring about him, Rodney Dangerfield style); (2) \u201cBullshit, bullshit, bullshit\u201d seems like a totally warranted general indictment to me, though somebody who writes articles at David Frum\u2019s place might not see it that way; (3) so far as I can tell, the audience in Vegas, especially given the heat, was having a great time; there was plenty of laughter and chanting, and Trump did a good deal of question-and-answer with them (though this would be better seen on video, and if anybody wants to correct me based on video footage, please do).<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cHollywood Joe Biden\u2019s Celebrity Party\u201d [Wall Street Journal]. \u201c[Biden] flew from the Group of Seven in Europe to a Hollywood fundraiser with George Clooney and Julia Roberts. You do what you gotta do. The L.A. event pulled in more than $30 million for Mr. Biden\u2019s re-election campaign\u2026. Days after his $30 million fundraiser, Mr. Biden announced a whopping $50 million ad spend on a commercial depicting Mr. Trump as a \u201cconvicted criminal.\u201d Those two words will define Mr. Biden\u2019s re-election campaign. It might work. Polls have suggested some voters would step away from Mr. Trump following a conviction. If so, the much-maligned Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who delivered the felony conviction for the Democrats, will get the last laugh.<\/p>\n
But notice that on the day Mr. Biden tapped the Hollywood ATM, Mr. Trump campaigned at a black church in Detroit. It is becoming hard to suppress the reality reported in polls that Mr. Trump, former host of \u201cThe Apprentice,\u201d is peeling off layers of the traditional Democratic coalition\u2014blacks, Hispanics, younger Americans and possibly even Jewish voters. The Democratic base once had something resembling a common identity, but not so much anymore. And it\u2019s getting late to fix that.\u201d \u2022 Trump is surely not peeling off entire layers. But all he needs to do is chip away at the margins.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cChemicals from East Palestine derailment spread to 16 US states, data shows\u201d [Guardian]. \u2022 What people will remember is that Trump came right away, while the Democrats dithered.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cThe Return of Peace Through Strength\u201d [Foreign Affairs]. \u201cAnd Trump was a peacemaker\u2014a fact obscured by false portrayals of him but perfectly clear when one looks at the record. Just in the final 16 months of his administration, the United States facilitated the Abraham Accords, bringing peace to Israel and three of its neighbors in the Middle East plus Sudan; Serbia and Kosovo agreed to U.S.-brokered economic normalization; Washington successfully pushed Egypt and key Gulf states to settle their rift with Qatar and end their blockade of the emirate; and the United States entered into an agreement with the Taliban that prevented any American combat deaths in Afghanistan for nearly the entire final year of the Trump administration. Trump was determined to avoid new wars and endless counterinsurgency operations, and his presidency was the first since that of Jimmy Carter in which the United States did not enter a new war or expand an existing conflict.\u201d \u2022 Sort of amazing that an administration where white mustachio-ed John Bolton held office was less lunatic than one with elegantly maned Tony Blinken, but here we are.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cBiden courts Latino voters with ad blitz during Copa Am\u00e9rica soccer tournament\u201d [NBC]. \u201cPresident Joe Biden\u2019s campaign is drawing up a new play to reach Latino voters in key battleground states during the Copa Am\u00e9rica soccer tournament, which starts in the U.S. on Thursday. The campaign is aiming to reach the millions of viewers expected to tune in through a seven-figure ad blitz and organizing effort, a Biden campaign official said. The re-election team hopes that \u2014 with international sensations like Argentina\u2019s Lionel Messi and Brazil\u2019s Vin\u00edcius J\u00fanior starring in the tournament \u2014 it can score with a diverse and hyperengaged audience that may not be that dialed into politics or the 2024 race, the official said. A 30-second spot \u2014 titled \u2018Gooaalll!\u2019 \u2014 will air in swing states that are hosting matches over the next month, like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina, according to the campaign. The ads will run in both English and Spanish, the campaign said.\u201d<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cBiden\u2019s ads haven\u2019t been working. Now, he\u2019s trying something new\u201d [Vox]. \u201cPresident Joe Biden\u2019s odds of reelection may be worse than they look. And they don\u2019t look great\u2026. It\u2019s not surprising, then, that the Economist\u2019s election forecast gives Trump a roughly 70 percent chance of victory in November. For anyone who doesn\u2019t want an illiberal insurrectionist in the White House, these numbers are concerning enough on their face. But they are even more disconcerting when one considers an underappreciated piece of context: Trump hasn\u2019t even begun to air campaign advertisements, while Biden has been blanketing swing-state airwaves. In other words: This is what the 2024 race looks like when the president enjoys a massive advantage on paid propaganda.\u201d \u2022 True. It\u2019s amazing that Democrat lawfare doesn\u2019t seem, as of this writing, to have panned out (though in typical Democrat fashion, they\u2019ve dilly dallied about starting to hammer on Trump\u2019s \u201cguilt\u201d until long after the verdicts). That said, it behooves Trump supporters to avoid premature triumphalism. A close race can, by definition, go either way. <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cThe mother of all US presidential debates\u201d [Ed Luce, Financial Times]. \u201cHow do you run a debate between two men whose combined age is two-thirds that of the US republic? The answer is to have no audience, mute the one not talking and schedule bathroom breaks (calling them commercials). It would be an overstatement to say that next week\u2019s clash between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be definitive. But in a close election in which each candidate\u2019s mental capacity is under scrutiny, it will matter a lot. Only three times in US history has a presidential debate arguably changed the outcome. In each case, however, they took place within weeks or days of the election. Biden pushed for a historically early date because so many Americans mail in their votes nowadays. In reality, his team wanted the earliest chance to break a polling deadlock that they assumed would have evaporated by now\u2026 On past performance, Biden ought to beat Trump. He was judged the winner in both their 2020 encounters. This was partly because Trump came across as obnoxious.\u201d But Trump is obnoxious. Perhaps that\u2019s what the country needs? Hard to imagine a majority would accept that. More: \u201cThe good news for Biden is that the rules mostly favour him. Trump feeds off live audiences and will have to adapt to silence. He will be inaudible when Biden is speaking. Biden would be negligent if he did not remind viewers that his opponent is a convicted felon.\u201d It occurs to me that the flip side of not \u201cfeed[ing] off\u201d the audience (horrible locution) is that Trump might remain more calm and controlled; no adrenaline surge. I guess we\u2019ll find out! And: \u201cBiden\u2019s goal will be to ensure his age will be less of a talking point than Trump\u2019s character. On paper his task is simple. In practice it is anything but.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Kennedy (I): \u201cKennedy Raises Just $2.6 Million, a Sign of Reliance on His Running Mate\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cRobert F. Kennedy Jr.\u2019s presidential campaign raised just $2.6 million in May, a paltry sum that speaks to how reliant his bid has become on his running mate, the wealthy Silicon Valley lawyer Nicole Shanahan. The Kennedy campaign raised less in May than it had in any previous month in 2024, according to filings on Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission. That was in large part because Ms. Shanahan, who has poured millions into their independent presidential campaign, barely contributed any additional money in May\u2026. Mr. Kennedy and his allies have some unique costs associated with their campaign \u2014 primarily ballot-access work that can be expensive.<\/p>\n
His campaign spent about $6.3 million in May, but almost half of that was routed through a limited liability company that focuses on ballot access. The money laid out was labeled \u201ccampaign consulting,\u201d making his precise expenditures somewhat opaque.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
MI: \u201cThe City That Will Determine Where Michigan\u200d\u2014and the Country\u2014Goes in 2024\u201d [Slate]. \u201cIt\u2019s not news that the voters in Michigan, that ever-powerful swing state and bastion of Midwest culture, will be a key determinant of the entire country\u2019s democratic future come fall. What may be surprising, though, is where the Mitten\u2019s locus of power seems to emanate from these days\u2014as well as the types of Michiganders who are gaining national attention and power as a result. For the first time in my lifetime, the real center of my home state\u2019s political influence lies not in Detroit, Ann Arbor, Flint, or the serene forests and lake houses of Northern Michigan. Instead, it\u2019s coming from the capital city: Lansing, the often overlooked, underfunded, landlocked municipal center of the state, home to the State Capitol and Michigan State University and Lugnuts baseball. (Also, lots of pre\u2013Civil War buildings and potholed streets and abandoned factories and electric vehicle plants and scientific research facilities and arrays of solar panels.) It\u2019s also coming from the suburbs and farms and professorial residences scattered throughout the lopsided district: the Greater Lansing Area, my flyover hometown situated within the borders of Ingham County.\u201d And: \u201cWithin those big metanarratives, there\u2019s a whole lot of Lansing. In the 2018 cycle, one of the many once red seats that fell to the blue wave was Michigan\u2019s 8th Congressional District, which encompassed Greater Lansing. There, Democrat and CIA veteran Elissa Slotkin flipped a seat that had been held by a Republican, then-incumbent Rep. Mike Bishop. That same year saw the ascension of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Michigan State alum and former state representative for the area who took the governor\u2019s mansion back from Republican hands.\u201d \u2022 So, a CIA Democrat and the beneficiary of an FBI-instigated kidnapping plot are key figures in the key county of a key state. Hmm.<\/p>\n
NY: <\/p>\n
A new Siena poll says Biden has only an 8 point lead over Trump in New York. In a June 2020 poll, Siena said Biden had a 25 point lead. Biden ultimately won New York by 23 points. Trump has nearly *quintupled* his share of Black voters in New York \u2014 2020: 6%, 2024: 29% pic.twitter.com\/deGt1oaJBr<\/p>\n
\u2014 Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 20, 2024<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Our Famously Free Press<\/p>\n
\u201cThe deceptive Biden G7 video was quickly debunked, but it kept going viral anyway\u201d [NBC]. \u201cThe story revolved around Biden and other world leaders being greeted by a skydiving demonstration last Thursday at the Group of Seven meeting in Italy. Video shows Biden walking away from the leaders and toward a group of parachutists who had just landed, giving them two thumbs-up. But conservative media outlets and the Republican National Committee posted videos shot from angles that cut out the parachutists. Some of their posts said incorrectly that Biden \u2018wandered off.\u2019 Without the skydivers Biden was addressing included in those videos, viewers could be left with the impression that he was walking absentmindedly. The misleading videos were an example of so-called cheap fakes, in which low-tech editing or other minor changes to videos, along with incorrect context, can amplify false but convincing messages. The episode illustrated the dynamics of the new information ecosystem, in which tech platforms are hesitant to emphasize vetted, factual information during an election year for fear of appearing partisan \u2014 even as partisan operatives take advantage of the platforms\u2019 attempts at neutrality.\u201d \u2022 The real issue is the scale of the platforms; that\u2019s what enables frictionless propagation (which is why we should return the blogosphere, sigh).<\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Airborne Transmission<\/p>\n
\u201cThe airborne transmission of viruses causestight transmission bottlenecks\u201d [Nature]. From April, missed it. From the Abstract: \u201cHere we show that, across a broad range of circumstances, tight transmission bottlenecks are a simple consequence of the physical process of airborne viral transmission. We use mathematical modelling to describe the physical process of the emission and inhalation of infectious particles, deriving the result that that the great majority of transmission bottlenecks involve few viral particles\u2026. While risk calculations consider whether a person might be infected, evolutionary biology poses a different question: If a person was infected, how many viruses initiate that infection? This number of viruses, denoted the transmission bottleneck12, has important consequences for virus evolution: The tighter the bottleneck, and the fewer particles get through, the less genetic diversity will be transmitted between individuals. The absence of initial diversity can limit the potential for within-host evolution, as variants need to be generated de novo before evolutionary changes can take effect\u2026 Studies of genomic data have suggested that for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infection, the transmission bottleneck generally involves few viral particles, with potentially a single virus initiating infection\u2026. Emitted particles are affected by evaporation, sedimentation and diffusion. Ventilation reduces the mean concentration of particles in the air, while in the absence of immediately finding a new host, viruses in emitted particles begin to decay. Combining insights from this literature, we assess the expected transmission bottleneck for infections that occur under a variety of scenarios. Our results provide a strong indication, independent of genome sequence data, that most cases of respiratory virus transmission will involve a tight population bottleneck.\u201d \u2022 \u201cA single particle\u201d sounds ominous, but the odds of tranmission (which we know how to reduce, to our betterment) are separate from the mechanism of transmission. More: \u201cWhile our model of particle spread captures the basic features of respiratory virus transmission, it still makes multiple simplifications. For example, our model neglects effects arising from convection currents caused by individuals in a room41. Effects such as these have the potential to generate non-monotonic levels of exposure with distance from an infected person, as particles are carried up and across the ceiling before falling to a height at which they can be breathed in.\u201d \u2022 Another model where \u201chot air rises\u201d is not built in!<\/p>\n
Transmission: Covid<\/p>\n
Surge anecdata:<\/p>\n
How to Know There Is a Covid Surge:<\/p>\n
Step 1 = Post something about it (eg \u201cCovid is everywhere,\u201d \u201cThere\u2019s an uptick in Covid\u201d) <\/p>\n
Step 2 = Watch for the bot surge paid to swarm in and stifle messaging<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen) June 20, 2024<\/p>\n
That and the cranked up denialism, here debunked, for a pleasant change\u2013<\/p>\n
\u201cThink you have a summer cold? There\u2019s a good chance it\u2019s COVID: experts\u201d [CTV News]. \u201c\u2018We have to remember COVID is not gone. So, this is a little different than things like influenza where we see it nearly disappear in the summer. The last two summers, COVID has really hung around and as a result, we continue to see waves and upticks of virus throughout the year,\u2019 said Craig Jenne with the University of Calgary\u2019s department of microbiology, immunology, and infectious diseases. \u2018There\u2019s a good chance, as we see the numbers rise in the community, that summer cold might be a COVID infection.’\u201d \u2022 The word seems to be \u201cuptick.\u201d Maybe if we had some data we could tell if that was the right word!<\/p>\n
Maskstravaganza<\/p>\n
Dopamine:<\/p>\n
Jury Duty \u2013 When I walked into the room of 400+ people and I was wearing an N95 and Stoggles, I felt proud and courageous. It was a dopamine hit for me. It felt like walking into a battlefield, but I was ready to kick ass. I felt love, not fear, not aggression. It was a bit fun.<\/p>\n
\u2014 The CoVID Martian (a.k.a Mean Mr. Mustard) (@ravencallin) June 20, 2024<\/p>\n
Rather like this:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/jon_snow.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
And we know who wins, too\u2026. <\/p>\n
Should somebody check in on Vancouver?<\/p>\n
Family told me I’m not allowed at my own daughter’s elementary school grad tomorrow if I show up in a mask because it will take the focus away from the event<\/p>\n
\u2014 chantzy (@chantz_y) June 20, 2024<\/p>\n
I\u2019m so old I remember when \u201cYou do you\u201d was a thing\u2026.<\/p>\n
Testing and Tracking: H5N1<\/p>\n
\u201c\u2018We\u2019re Flying Blind\u2019: CDC Has 1M Bird Flu Tests Ready, but Experts See Repeat of Covid Missteps\u201d [KFF Health News]. \u201cIt\u2019s been nearly three months since the U.S. government announced an outbreak of the bird flu virus on dairy farms. The World Health Organization considers the virus a public health concern because of its potential to cause a pandemic, yet the U.S. has tested only about 45 people across the country. \u2018We\u2019re flying blind,\u2019 said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health. With so few tests run, she said, it\u2019s impossible to know how many farmworkers have been infected, or how serious the disease is. A lack of testing means the country might not notice if the virus begins to spread between people \u2014 the gateway to another pandemic. \u2018We\u2019d like to be doing more testing. There\u2019s no doubt about that,\u2019 said Nirav Shah, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC\u2019s bird flu test is the only one the Food and Drug Administration has authorized for use right now. Shah said the agency has distributed these tests to about 100 public health labs in states. \u2018We\u2019ve got roughly a million available now,\u2019 he said, \u2018and expect 1.2 million more in the next two months. But Nuzzo and other researchers are concerned because the CDC and public health labs aren\u2019t generally where doctors order tests from. That job tends to be done by major clinical laboratories run by companies and universities, which lack authorization for bird flu testing\u2026. Greninger said the delays and confusion are reminiscent of the early months of covid, when federal agencies prioritized caution over speed. Test accuracy is important, he said, but excessive vetting can cause harm in a fast-moving outbreak like this one. \u2018The CDC should be trying to open this up to labs with national reach and a good reputation,\u2019 he said. \u2018I fall on the side of allowing labs to get ready \u2014 that\u2019s a no-brainer.’\u201d \u2022 Read for the horrid detail. This after CDC completely butchered the Covid testing itself, which users who did the \u201cvetting\u201d discovered [bangs head on desk]. <\/p>\n
Morbidity and Mortality<\/p>\n
Why it\u2019s easy to lead people to believe Covid is \u201cmild,\u201d \u201cjust a cold\u201d:<\/p>\n
Judging based on people you meet in the world, COVID will always “seem fine” because the dead people aren’t around to convince you otherwise.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Antiviral Marketing (@antiviral_mktng) June 19, 2024<\/p>\n
Celebrity Watch<\/p>\n
\u201cGlenn Close \u2018hit hard\u2019 with COVID and RSV at same time, forced to delay filming \u2018Knives Out 3\u2032\u201d [CTV]. \u201cThe Oscar-nominated actor, 77, said in a video posted to her Instagram page on Wednesday that she has been in London to begin filming \u2018Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery,\u2019 and that she only got to film for two days before she \u2018came down with COVID and RSV both at the same time.\u2019 \u2018As of today, (it) is the first day that I feel like I am getting back to myself,\u2019 Close continued. \u2018I\u2019ll have to start all over again and get into the rhythm of shooting. Hopefully I can be back on set tomorrow.\u2019\u2026 In the caption of her post, Close wrote that she\u2019s \u2018finally feeling better,\u2019 and acknowledged that it\u2019s been a \u2018crazy way to start a movie.\u2019 She also encouraged her followers to \u2018wear a mask in crowds\u2019\u2026 \u201d \u2022\u00a0Listening, Taylor?<\/p>\n
Elite Maleficence<\/p>\n
Even leaving respirators aside, we are 100% certain H5N1 can spread through the eyes, which have avian receptors:<\/p>\n
Malice is my guess. Here\u2019s the latest H5N1 cartoon released by CDC. Notice minorities are featured without any airborne PPE (like fit tested respirators), no eye protection, no education about testing.<\/p>\n
This is the sort of \u201cguidance\u201d I would expect to see if the goal was to harm. pic.twitter.com\/0BHIloL8sT<\/p>\n
\u2014 #RespiratorsWork #AirborneProtections (@flowermusickids) June 19, 2024<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. The numbers in the right hand column are identical. The dots on the map are not.<\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that last week KP.2 was all over everything like kudzu, and now it\u2019s KP.3. If the \u201cNowcast\u201d can\u2019t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it at all?<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A slight decrease followed by a return to a slight, steady increase. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in \u201ccurrent view\u201d tab, I think white states here have experienced \u201cno change,\u201d as opposed to have no data.)<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Going up.<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn\u2019t even run back to 1\/21\/23, as it used to, but now starts 1\/1\/24. There\u2019s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn\u2019t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that\u2019s why the shape of the curve has changed.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. I\u2019m leaving this here for another week because I loathe them so much:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/last_week.png\")
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[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED up.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
Employment Situation: \u201cUnited States Initial Jobless Claims\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US eased by 5,000 to 238,000 on the second week of June, above market expectations of 235,000, to mark the second-highest reading since August of 2023, only behind the upwardly revised 243,000 claim count from the earlier week.\u201d<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cUnited States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US remained positive but eased 3.2 points to 1.3 in June 2024, down from 4.5 in the prior month and missing market forecasts of 5. It marked the lowest reading in five months, indicating the second consecutive month of slowing activity.\u201d<\/p>\n
Housing: \u201cUnited States Housing Starts\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cHousing starts in the US fell 5.5% to an annualized rate of 1.277 million in May 2024, the lowest since July 2020, from April\u2019s downwardly revised 1.352 million and well below the forecast of 1.37 million. This unexpected decline shows that high interest rates started to weigh again on the housing market.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
The Bezzle: \u201cPerplexity Is a Bullshit Machine\u201d [Wired]. \u201cThe Perplexity chatbot itself is more specific. Prompted to describe what Perplexity is, it provides text that reads, \u2018Perplexity AI is an AI-powered search engine that combines features of traditional search engines and chatbots. It provides concise, real-time answers to user queries by pulling information from recent articles and indexing the web daily.\u2019 A WIRED analysis and one carried out by developer Robb Knight suggest that Perplexity is able to achieve this partly through apparently ignoring a widely accepted web standard known as the Robots Exclusion Protocol to surreptitiously scrape areas of websites that operators do not want accessed by bots, despite claiming that it won\u2019t. WIRED observed a machine tied to Perplexity\u2014more specifically, one on an Amazon server and almost certainly operated by Perplexity\u2014doing this on WIRED.com and across other Cond\u00e9 Nast publications. The WIRED analysis also demonstrates that, despite claims that Perplexity\u2019s tools provide \u2018instant, reliable answers to any question with complete sources and citations included,\u2019 doing away with the need to \u2018click on different links,\u2019 its chatbot, which is capable of accurately summarizing journalistic work with appropriate credit, is also prone to bullshitting, in the technical sense of the word. WIRED provided the Perplexity chatbot with the headlines of dozens of articles published on our website this year, as well as prompts about the subjects of WIRED reporting. The results showed the chatbot at times closely paraphrasing WIRED stories, and at times summarizing stories inaccurately and with minimal attribution.\u201d \u2022 Called it [lambert blushes modestly]. <\/p>\n
The Bezzle: \u201cCrypto analysts warn of Andrew Tate\u2019s DADDY coin as signs of insider trading mount\u201d [MiTrade]. \u201cSeveral crypto analysts warned on Friday about the dangers of trading with the so-called \u2018celebrity coins\u2019, the current leading narrative in the meme coin space. Social media influencer Andrew Tate\u2019s DADDY token, which is among the most popular ones, has been surrounded by accusations of insider trading activity. Caitlyn Jenner\u2019s JENNER, Iggy Azalea\u2019s MOTHER and TOPG are other tokens in the category, based on meme coins referencing famous personalities that tend to endorse these tokens. Bubblemaps, a crypto data tracker, evaluated the on-chain activity in addresses holding DADDY token and noted that Solana-based token\u2019s 40% supply was sent to the celebrity Andrew Tate.\u201d \u2022 Gad.<\/p>\n
The Bezzle: \u201cThis Judge Made Houston the Top Bankruptcy Court. Then He Helped His Girlfriend Cash In\u201d [Wall Street Journal]. The deck: \u201cLaw firm Kirkland & Ellis brought multibillion-dollar cases to David R. Jones\u2019s court, aided by a local attorney who lived with the judge; \u2018Why did no one look into it?\u201d \u2022 I can\u2019t imagine\u2026 <\/p>\n
Tech: \u201ciOS 18 could \u2018sherlock\u2019 $400M in app revenue\u201d [TechCrunch]. \u201cEvery June at Apple\u2019s Worldwide Developers Conference, the iPhone maker teases the upcoming releases of its software and operating systems, which often include features previously only available through third-party apps. The practice is so common now it\u2019s even been given a name: \u201csherlocking\u201d \u2014 a reference to a 1990s search app for Mac that borrowed features from a third-party app known as Watson. Now when Apple launches a new feature that was before the domain of a third-party app, it\u2019s said to have \u2018sherlocked\u2019 the app\u2026. With the release of iOS 18 later this fall, Apple\u2019s changes may affect apps that today have an estimated $393 million in revenue and have been downloaded roughly 58 million times over the past year.\u201d\u00a0\u2022 One for Stoller. I\u2019m sure whatever agreement with Apple the developers were forced to sign with Apple allowed Apple to steal their intellectual property.<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cBoeing committed \u2018the deadliest corporate crime in US history\u2019 and should be fined $24 billion, victims\u2019 families say\u201d [CNN]. \u201cFamilies that lost loved ones in two Boeing 737 Max crashes said on Wednesday that the company committed the \u201cdeadliest corporate crime in US history\u201d and asked the Justice Department to fine the company the maximum $24 billion it could face in a criminal trial. The families wrote to the Department of Justice asking for the fine as the US government considers criminal prosecution of Boeing. The Justice Department said last month that Boeing\u2019s recent string of safety lapses and mishaps constituted a violation of its 2021 agreement that allowed the company to avoid charges for 737 Max crashes in Indonesia in October 2018 and in Ethiopia in March 2019 that killed 346 people. The \u2018appropriate action now is an aggressive criminal prosecution\u2019 against Boeing including a quick jury trial and \u2018criminal prosecutions of the responsible corporate officials,\u2019 including former CEO Dennis Muilenburg, the families\u2019 attorney wrote. ;Because time is of the essence to avoid any statute of limitations from running (out), the Department should begin these prosecutions promptly,\u2019 they wrote in the 32-page letter, which was sent by Paul Cassell, an attorney representing the families. The letter also asks the Justice Department for an independent corporate monitor to oversee Boeing\u2019s safety measures and to direct it in its efforts to improve its quality.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 42 Fear (previous close: 42 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 40 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 20 at 2:29:00 PM ET.<\/p>\n
The Gallery<\/p>\n
More wallpaper:<\/p>\n
#Inners #WagnerTonight #Maddow #LastWord #11thHour @SRuhle #Tuesday This & That <\/p>\n
Pre Art Break 2
Edouard Vuillard-\u201cMisia At The Piano\u201d(c1895\/early 1896\u2019s)
Oil on cardboard
The MET<\/p>\n
Post Impressionism
Example of his Les Nabis Interior style pic.twitter.com\/k0pxgORHSR<\/p>\n
\u2014 JRYZNER (@jeryzner) November 29, 2023<\/p>\n
And gorgeous it is, too. (There\u2019s surely a scholarly paper here to discover whether these patterns were real, from a catalog, or not. Either way, those fin de siecle Parisians really knew how to live!<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Hacking of Culture and the Creation of Socio-Technical Debt\u201d [Schneier of Security]. \u201cCulture is increasingly mediated through algorithms. These algorithms have splintered the organization of culture, a result of states and tech companies vying for influence over mass audiences. One byproduct of this splintering is a shift from imperfect but broad cultural narratives to a proliferation of niche groups, who are defined by ideology or aesthetics instead of nationality or geography. This change reflects a material shift in the relationship between collective identity and power, and illustrates how states no longer have exclusive domain over either. Today, both power and culture are increasingly corporate. Blending Stewart Brand and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, McKenzie Wark writes in A Hacker Manifesto that \u2018information wants to be free but is everywhere in chains.\u2019 Sounding simultaneously harmless and revolutionary, Wark\u2019s assertion as part of her analysis of the role of what she terms \u2018the hacker class\u2019 in creating new world orders points to one of the main ideas that became foundational to the reorganization of power in the era of the internet: that \u2018information wants to be free.\u2019 This credo, itself a co-option of Brand\u2019s influential original assertion in a conversation with Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak at the 1984 Hackers Conference and later in his 1987 book The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at MIT, became a central ethos for early internet inventors, activists, and entrepreneurs. Ultimately, this notion was foundational in the construction of the era we find ourselves in today: an era in which internet companies dominate public and private life. These companies used the supposed desire of information to be free as a pretext for building platforms that allowed people to connect and share content. Over time, this development helped facilitate the definitive power transfer of our time, from states to corporations.\u201d \u2022 Right. If information weren\u2019t free, it wouldn\u2019t be free to be rented. And speaking of hackers\u2013<\/p>\n
\u201csystemd 256.1: Now slightly less likely to delete \/home\u201d [The Register]. \u201cAmong the issues fixed in version 256.1 are that even as long as five years ago, systemd-tmpfiles had moved on past managing only temporary files \u2013 as its name might suggest to the unwary. Now it manages all sorts of files created on the fly\u2026 such as things like users\u2019 home directories. If you invoke the systemd-tmpfiles –purge command without specifying that very important config file which tells it while files to handle, version 256 will merrily purge your entire home directory. That fun little nugget of info broke over on Mastodon and has attracted considerable attention.\u201d And: \u201c[I]f your command can potentially do something really dangerous, then don\u2019t let people just run it without warning them and checking.\u201d \u2022 Like capitalism\u2026.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Greg Quist:<\/p>\n
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Greg Quist writes: \u201cGolden Gate Park.\u201d Wow! (I love the kneeling figure.)<\/p>\n
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n
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