By Lambert Strether of Corrente.\/strong><\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Large Wren-Babbler, Pahang \u2013 Bukit Rengit, Pahang, Malaysia. I like the name, \u201cWren-Babbler.\u201d<\/p>\n
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In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
(1) Trump polling shows effects of conviction among independents.<\/p>\n
(2) Biden fundraiser video.<\/p>\n
(3) Clinton returns.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
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2024<\/p>\n
Less than a half a year to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
RCP Poll Averages, May 24:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/rcp_2024-06-14-e1718641688460.png\")
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Still waiting for some discernible effect from Trump\u2019s conviction (aside from, I suppose, his national numbers rising). Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan\u2019s court affects the polling, and if so, how.<\/p>\n
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Trump (R): \u201cNew Polling Shows the Real Fallout From the Trump Conviction\u201d [Politico]. \u201cIn the weeks since the verdict, both parties have sought to shape the public\u2019s initial reaction, with Republicans largely denouncing it and Democrats citing the result as further evidence that Trump is unfit for office. To figure out how this unprecedented moment is being processed by the electorate, POLITICO Magazine partnered with Ipsos in a new survey\u2026. Among the most notable findings in our poll: 21 percent of independents said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote. In a close election, small shifts among independent and swing voters could determine the outcome.\u201d But: \u201cA sizable number of Americans, including independents, question whether the verdict was the result of a fair and impartial process. And although most respondents rejected the idea that the prosecution was brought to help President Joe Biden, a large number (43 percent of all respondents) either strongly or somewhat agreed that was the rationale for the case.\u201d \u2022 So, still volatile.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cTrump unleashed: This is the calm before the storm\u201d [Salon]. \u201cTrump\u2019s MAGA cultists treat his speeches and rallies like a type of religious service where they are worshipping their Dear Leader as a type of prophet and messiah-god-martyr. Trump is continuing to summon and channel Adolf Hitler and the Nazis as he uses eliminationist and other genocidal language to describe non-white migrants and refugees and the other people (Democrats, liberals, and \u201cthe Left\u201d) he views as \u201cvermin\u201d and human pollution in American society\u2026. The most na\u00efve will continue to hide behind America\u2019s \u2018institutions\u2019 and \u2018national character\u2019 and how \u2018the guardrails\u2019 and \u2018the rule of law\u2019 will supposedly not allow Trump to engage in the types of violence and authoritarian plans he has publicly outlined and promised against his \u201cenemies.\u201d\u201d \u2022 The corollary here is that if the Democrats, from the base on upwards, genuinely believe this \u2014 and I have come to the reluctant conclusion that they do, and it\u2019s not simply manipulation \u2014 they cannot possibly allow Trump to take office. An election where Biden wins the electoral college is, you might say, Plan B. What Plan A is we don\u2019t know, but you can be sure it\u2019s being gamed out, just as it was in 2020 (with 2016 a gentler version).<\/p>\n
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BIden (D): \u201cIf Biden doesn\u2019t ace the first debate, will he be replaced at the convention?\u201d [Douglas MacKinnon, The Hill]. \u201c[T]he scheduled presidential debate on June 27 will be the most crucial test yet to determine Biden\u2019s mental acuity\u2026. The pressure on Biden to \u2018ace\u2019 the debate will be enormous\u2026. The warnings from Silver, Stephens and others are critical because aside from an outright health emergency, there is only one more \u201cpolitical window\u201d left to take the president out of the running and switch in another candidate in his place. That window being at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago beginning on August 19, where Biden\u2019s delegates could be released to vote for a more able Democrat.\u201d \u2022 Ed Kilgore says the Democrats would swap in Harris (and not Newsom, and not my favorite dark horse, Pritzker). I don\u2019t disagree, partly because this really is the stupidest timeline, but also because the Democrat base thinks she\u2019s OK, and how on earth do they throw a [genuflects] Black woman under the bus? Even a woman who\u2019s putatively Black (sadly, I can\u2019t seem to find the very early California campaign poster where she identifies as an Indian; this was before the \u201cperson of color\u201d locution was invented).<\/p>\n
Biden (D): This video, I believe, is not impeachable:<\/p>\n
So embarrassing.
The Democrats can\u2019t let this go on, surely? pic.twitter.com\/ptCtWBbFfh<\/p>\n
\u2014 Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) June 16, 2024<\/p>\n
Watch how Obama guides Biden, especially that creepy little pat on the shoulder at 0:34 (\u201cWe\u2019re almost back to your room, Joe, and you can lie down\u201d). Yikes.<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cWhite House, Obama team dispute characterization of fundraiser video\u201d [The Hill]. \u201cThe White House and former President Obama\u2019s team disputed the characterization that President Biden froze up on stage at a Los Angeles fundraiser and had to be led off the stage by the former president. The New York Post wrote about the video of Biden under the headline \u2018Biden appears to freeze up, has to be led off stage by Obama at mega-bucks LA fundraiser.’\u201d \u2022 I think the Post and the various Trump influencers are over-egging the pudding; they should just sit back and let Biden be Biden, which he will be. There doesn\u2019t need to be any \u201cfreeze-up\u201d; watching the way Obama guides Biden, along with Biden\u2019s gait, is enough. They\u2019re also making two risky bets: (1) that Biden won\u2019t be properly juiced for the debate; and (2) that nothing similar will happen with Trump, who\u2019s no spring chicken himself. Paging Susie Wiles!<\/p>\n
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\u201cWho Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?\u201d [Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight]. \u201cThe 2024 presidential election starts out in our forecast as a toss-up. While former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a small amount of movement \u2014 or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans \u2014 could result in President Joe Biden\u2019s reelection. Right now, Biden is favored to win in 494 out of 1,000 simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 502 of our simulations. In 4 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives. Our forecast launches just a week and a half after Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection to a scheme to pay hush money to a porn star during the 2016 election. Since May 30, he has lost ground in the polls, with his national margin in 538\u2019s polling average falling from +1.7 to +1.0 as of Monday at 1 p.m. Eastern. Our forecast today thinks there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political \u201cfundamentals\u201d indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points. But he still lags in the key swing states, with his margin at just 1 point in Pennsylvania, the likeliest state to tip the Electoral College to either candidate, well within our uncertainty interval. And with five months left until Election Day, there is still a lot of room for the polls to change, as indicated by the 3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes come Nov. 5.\u201d \u2022 Apparently Silver\u2019s designers felt that scrollbars weren\u2019t needed [snarl]\u2026. Anyhow, dragging the cursor across the text to the very end, this looks like spurious precision, to me:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/silver_scenarios.png\")
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\u201cResilience Part 1 (or a First Look at the 538 Model for 2024)\u201d [Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo]. \u201c538 just released its official 2024 forecast model. It shows a toss-up. (Technically, out of a thousand simulations, Biden wins 53% of the times and Trump wins 47% of the times.) This is significant, but not perhaps in the way you think. First, while poll averages are helpful to making sense of the current state of the race, forecasts are like predicting the future. In fact, they are literally about predicting the future. And predicting the future is hard \u2014 a basic life lesson if you haven\u2019t come across it yet. To me, the 538 modeling is the gold standard. But I see it still as half a novelty. That\u2019s no criticism of the people who put it together, incredibly smart folks [who left effing scrolls bars off the page, that kind of smart]. It\u2019s just that there are a lot of factors that can\u2019t be reduced to formulas and data inputs and the data that can be put into the model come with their own clouds of uncertainty. To me it\u2019s a helpful data exercise which takes a knowledgable person\u2019s range of factors, adds a bunch more and looks at them in a systematic and consistent-over-time fashion, stripped of wishful thinking. That\u2019s helpful. It\u2019s just not the be all and end all. But here\u2019s why it\u2019s significant.\u201d \u2022 And on into \u201cglass half full.\u201d And Marshall is perfectly correct. In a 50\/50 race there are paths to victory for Biden, too, just as there were for Trump in 2016. Adding, I prefer Silver the pundit to Silver the modeler. At least with the former, the assumptions are visible.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe dread election: Share of \u2018double haters\u2019 hits historic high\u201d [Axios]. \u201cA quarter of Americans hold unfavorable views of both President Biden and former President Trump \u2014 the highest share of \u2018double haters\u2018 at this stage in any of the last 10 elections, according to new Pew Research data. The closely watched bloc has nearly doubled in size since 2020, making this fall\u2019s Trump vs. Biden rematch the most dreaded election in modern political history\u2026. Top strategists say the race is likely to be decided by 6% of voters in six swing states. Many of them will hold their nose and pick a candidate they dislike in November.\u201d But: \u201c\u2018They may dislike both candidates, but the intensity on Trump\u2019s negative is higher,\u2019 Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock told Axios. \u2018A campaign that has the resources to persuade those individuals has some advantage.’\u201d<\/p>\n
Our Famously Free Press<\/p>\n
\u201cFox\u2019s Howie Kurtz Criticizes \u2018Misleading\u2019 Coverage Of Biden Cheapfake Video \u2014 Including Fox News\u201d [Mediaite]. \u201cFox News host Howie Kurtz ripped \u201cmisleading\u201d coverage \u2014 including Fox\u2019s \u2014 of a cheapfake video of President Joe Biden at the G7 watching a skydiving show last week. The RNC Research account seized on a moment in which the president moved away from the group to congratulate a skydiver who was packing his chute. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy then grabbed Biden\u2019s arm to draw his attention to a member of the skydiving team who was addressing the group of world leaders\u2026. The New York Post then posted a version of the clip cropped vertically so the skydiver Biden was congratulating didn\u2019t show in the video.\u201d Kurtz: \u201c[I]f you look at it from a slightly broader angle, the President had turned to chat with a skydiver who just landed as part of a show near the world leaders and to give the man a thumbs up before Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni guided him back to where they were taking a group photo.\u201d \u2022 The moral: Always go with the wide-angle view, not the close-up. Photographers like close-ups; \u201cIf your pictures aren\u2019t good enough, you\u2019re not close enough,\u201d said Robert Capa. But we should be looking for news photographs, not \u201cgood\u201d photographs.<\/p>\n
\u201cSinclair floods local news websites with hundreds of deceptive articles about Biden\u2019s mental fitness\u201d [Popular Information]. \u201cOn June 13, Sinclair\u2019s National Desk published an article headlined, \u2018Biden appears to wander away during G7 summit, escorted back by Italian PM.\u2019 The article links to a social media post by right-wing polemicist Collin Rugg, who commented on a video clip by RNC Research. Rugg says Biden \u2018appears to start wandering off at the G7 summit and has to be handled back in,\u2019 describing it as a \u2018clown show.\u2019 The Trump campaign claimed Biden was \u2018wandering around like a brain-dead zombie.\u2019 Sinclair, echoing the Trump campaign\u2019s political attack, described it as one of \u2018a string of strange incidents for Biden.\u2019 There was nothing strange about the incident. The G7 leaders watched a skydiving demonstration, with each parachuter carrying a flag for each nation. Biden briefly walks away from the group to give another parachuter a thumbs up. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that Biden \u2018was being very polite and went over to talk to all of them individually.’\u201d I did, in fact, see what purported to be the full video, which does this (video \u201cpurports to be\u201d until proven otherwise). More: \u201cEach of these crass political smears masquerading as journalism was syndicated to at least 86 local news websites owned by Sinclair. \u201d<\/p>\n
Spook Country<\/p>\n
\u201cIntelligence Officials Secretly Paid by Big Tech to Fight Antitrust Reforms\u201d [Lee Fang]. \u201cHigh-level former intelligence and national security officials have provided crucial assistance to Silicon Valley giants as the tech firms fought off efforts to weaken online monopolies and force competition on major platforms\u2026 \u2018We need to keep Big Tech strong \u2014 so it can keep America strong,\u2019 claimed Robert O\u2019Brien, the former White House National Security Advisor to President Trump. O\u2019Brien has appeared on cable news programs and penned several opinion columns rallying opposition to tech antitrust reforms in Congress\u2026. .The disclosures show that the tech group not only paid a group of former Trump intelligence officials but also retained the services of Global Strategy Group, a polling and consulting firm that advises the Democratic National Committee. CCIA, notably, repeatedly cited O\u2019Brien\u2019s concerns around national security and China, casting him as a neutral expert rather than a paid consultant.\u201d<\/p>\n
Clinton Legacy<\/p>\n
\u201cHillary Clinton\u2019s shock Tony\u2019s appearance baffles viewers as she makes political joke\u201d [Daily Express]. Clinton is a producer of the Broadway musical Suffs (\u201cSuffragettes\u201d). This seems to have been the joke: \u201cWhile speaking about the suffragettes, she quipped she knows how \u2018hard it can be to make change\u2019, referring to her attempts for the Presidency.\u201d \u2022 Her outfit:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Hilary-Clinton-s-fashion-choice-was-slammed-online-207163.png\")
<\/p>\n
If you had to run, I suppose that\u2019s easier to do in a caftan that a Nina McLemore\u2026.<\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (CDC) This week\u2019s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. The numbers in the right hand column are identical. The dots on the map are not.<\/p>\n
[2] (CDC) Last week\u2019s wastewater map.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that last week KP.2 was all over everything like kudzu, and now it\u2019s KP.3. If the \u201cNowcast\u201d can\u2019t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it at all?<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A slight decrease followed by a return to a slight, steady increase. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.<\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in \u201ccurrent view\u201d tab, I think white states here have experienced \u201cno change,\u201d as opposed to have no data.)<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Going up.<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn\u2019t even run back to 1\/21\/23, as it used to, but now starts 1\/1\/24. There\u2019s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn\u2019t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that\u2019s why the shape of the curve has changed.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. I\u2019m leaving this here for another week because I loathe them so much:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/last_week.png\")
<\/p>\n
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.<\/p>\n
[12] Deaths low, ED up.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
Manufacturing: \u201cUnited States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe NY Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to -6 in June 2024 from -15.6 in May, beating forecasts of -9. It is the highest reading in four months, although it still pointed to a moderate decline in business activity in the New York State.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Tech: \u201cProton is taking its privacy-first apps to a nonprofit foundation model\u201d [Ars Technica]. \u201c\u2018We believe that if we want to bring about large-scale change, Proton can\u2019t be billionaire-subsidized (like Signal), Google-subsidized (like Mozilla), government-subsidized (like Tor), donation-subsidized (like Wikipedia), or even speculation-subsidized (like the plethora of crypto \u2018foundations\u2019),\u2019 Proton CEO Andy Yen wrote in a blog post announcing the transition. \u201cInstead, Proton must have a profitable and healthy business at its core.\u2019 The announcement comes exactly 10 years to the day after a crowdfunding campaign saw 10,000 people give more than $500,000 to launch Proton Mail. To make it happen, Yen, along with co-founder Jason Stockman and first employee Dingchao Lu, endowed the Proton Foundation with some of their shares. The Proton Foundation is now the primary shareholder of the business Proton, which Yen states will \u2018make irrevocable our wish that Proton remains in perpetuity an organization that places people ahead of profits.\u2019 Among other members of the Foundation\u2019s board is Sir Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of HTML, HTTP, and almost everything else about the web. Of particular importance is where Proton and the Proton Foundation are located: Switzerland. As Yen noted, Swiss foundations do not have shareholders and are instead obligated to act \u201cin accordance with the purpose for which they were established.\u2019 While the for-profit entity Proton AG can still do things like offer stock options to recruits and even raise its own capital on private markets, the Foundation serves as a backstop against moving too far from Proton\u2019s founding mission, Yen wrote.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 42 Fear (previous close: 38 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 43 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 17 at 1:48:29 PM ET.<\/p>\n
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 188. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) \u2022 Bird flu not a concern, apparently. Still flirting with the 189 ceiling\u2026.<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cNASA again delays Boeing Starliner\u2019s return home\u201d [Phys.org]. \u201cMark Nappi, vice president of Boeing\u2019s Commercial Crew Program, added, \u201cWe have an incredible opportunity to spend more time at station and perform more tests which provides invaluable data unique to our position.\u201d \u2022 Nothing to see here!<\/p>\n
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From RM:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/dandelions.jpeg\")
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RM writes: \u201cI\u2019m so pleased to see these spring flowers pop out but then I hear from a friend back East that her mom is busy digging them out of her yard.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n
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