By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Peruvian Meadowlark, Guayaquil \u2013 Engunga Hills, Guayas, Ecuador. \u201cShort grass and bushes doing flight display, and at dusk with 2 Lesser Nighthawks in flight at end.\u201d Includes mosquito! And a bee. Grantchester Meadows feeling here\u2026 <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
(1) Trump\u2019s New York trial moves to charging instructions.<\/p>\n
(2) Stefanik files ethics complaint against Merchan.<\/p>\n
(3) Trisha Greenhalgh publishes enormous mask\/respirator study, stomping anti-maskers.<\/p>\n
(4) \u201cTrust your immune system.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than a half a year to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
RCP Poll Averages, May 10:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/rcp_05-17-2024.png\")
<\/p>\n
National results static, but most of the Swing States (more here) are incrementally, but steadily, moving Trump\u2019s way. Pennsylvania leans more Trump this week than last. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. Now, if either candidate starts breaking away in points, instead of tenths of a point\u2026. NOTE I changed the notation: Up and down arrows for increases or decreases over last week, circles for no change. Red = Trump. Blue would be Biden if he were leading anywhere, but he isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Lambert here: The charging instructions session is too much for me to digest today. All I can do is give some highlights, and promise I\u2019ll put my yellow waders on before closing arguments begin next Tuesday:<\/p>\n
Trump (R) (Bragg\/Merchan): On the Heisenbergian object offense (1): \u201cProsecutors and Trump\u2019s Lawyers Will Jockey for an Edge With Jurors\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cJury instructions are typically meant to translate legal treatises into something intelligible to the 12 laypeople who will decide the case. The instructions provide jurors with a road map to help them apply the law to the facts they have gleaned from the witnesses, documents and other evidence that has been presented to them\u2026. The prosecutors\u2019 proposed instructions, among other things, ask the judge to give the jury what legal experts said was unusual flexibility in determining whether Mr. Trump had a role in the creation of the false records at the center of the charges. Prosecutors argue that even if Mr. Trump did not create the records himself, the jury can find him responsible if the creation of the false records was \u2018a reasonably foreseeable consequence of his conduct.\u2019\u2026 To convict Mr. Trump of the felonies he is charged with, prosecutors must show that he falsified business records in order to commit or conceal another crime. The prosecution\u2019s proposed instructions say that other crime is the violation of an election law statue that makes it illegal to conspire to promote or prevent a candidate\u2019s election by \u2018unlawful means.\u2019 But what are those unlawful means? Prosecutors want the judge to instruct the jurors that they can choose any of three options: a federal election law violation; the falsification of other business records; or a tax crime. The jurors must unanimously agree that Mr. Trump conspired to promote his own election by unlawful means. But prosecutors are asking the judge to instruct jurors that they do not need to reach a unanimous conclusion about what the unlawful means were.\u201d <\/p>\n
Trump (R) (Bragg\/Merchan): On the Heisenbergian object offense (2):<\/p>\n
Post by @ecmclaughlin<\/p>\n
View on Threads<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Trump (R) (Bragg\/Merchan): \u201cProsecution and defense debate jury instructions in Trump\u2019s criminal trial\u201d [ABC]. \u201cTrump lawyer Emil Bove asked for a jury instruction that would get at, as he put it, \u2018the fact that this entire trial was based on the word of an attorney who worked for President Trump, and he was entitled to draw some inferences from that\u2019 about the legality of various things. However, the argument presented a problem: the defense said months ago that it wasn\u2019t going to use what\u2019s known as an advice-of-counsel defense \u2014 that a defendant\u2019s conduct was guided by a lawyer\u2019s OK. By deciding against it, the defense didn\u2019t have to waive Trump\u2019s attorney-client privilege or turn over various documents, Judge Juan M. Merchan noted. But, he complained, the defense has since tried to invoke the advice-of-counsel concept under different names, such as \u2018presence of counsel\u2019 or \u2018involvement of counsel.\u2019 \u2018My answer hasn\u2019t changed, and honestly, I find it disingenuous for you to make the argument at this point,\u201d he told Bove, who started to rise to respond.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump (R) (Bragg\/Merchan: Stefanik files ethics complaint against Merchan (nice timing):<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udea8\ud83d\udea8\ud83d\udea8 I just filed an official judicial complaint with the New York State Commission on Judicial Conduct against Acting Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan for his clear violation of the Rules of Judicial Conduct for the New York State Unified Court System due to his family\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/6JjIv7XpTP<\/p>\n
\u2014 Elise Stefanik (@EliseStefanik) May 21, 2024<\/p>\n
Here is section 100.3(E)(1)(d)(iii):<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/stefanic.png\")
<\/p>\n
IANAL, but given that Merchan\u2019s daughter is a Democrat consultant, I\u2019d say Stefanik has a prima facie case.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cTrump\u2019s trials may help, not hurt, his shot at the White House\u201d [The Hill]. \u201cNew polling by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, indicates that thus far, the ongoing trials have had virtually no impact on the former president\u2019s standing with voters nationally. Even if Trump were forced to spend the majority of his time between now and election day off the campaign trail and in courtrooms, only 22 percent of registered voters say they would be less likely to vote for the former president, while one-quarter of voters actually said they would be more likely to vote for Trump should he be forced to spend much of his time in court. Notably, a 53 percent majority is unmoved by the Trump trials, underscoring that keeping Trump in court and off the trail likely will not be the decisive factor some had presumed. In that same vein, Schoen Cooperman Research\u2019s poll underscores the very real chance that the indictments against Trump actually benefit the former president by allowing him to reprise a role that he thrives in \u2014 playing a political martyr. Indeed, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether or not the indictments facing Trump are legitimate or are politically motivated. A 47 percent plurality of voters say the indictments are legally sound, yet a sizable 40 percent say they are political persecution. A similar 48 percent say that Trump did something wrong and he should be prosecuted, while 39 percent say that either Trump did something wrong but should not be prosecuted (13 percent) or that Trump did nothing wrong (26 percent). However, one-half (50 percent) of voters agree that \u201cThe indictments against Donald Trump are a form of election interference, being carried out by liberal prosecutors, the Biden administration, and the Justice Department.\u201d \u2022 Schoen\u2019s career trajectoy is\u2026 interesting.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cNo, Biden Did Not Order the FBI to Assassinate Trump at Mar-a-Lago\u201d [Rolling Stone (Furzy Mouse)]. \u201cDocuments unsealed Tuesday revealed that more classified material was found at the former president\u2019s Palm Beach estate after the FBI\u2019s August 2022 raid. Republicans, however, have zeroed in on standard language in FBI search warrants authorizing the use of deadly force in appropriate circumstances, claiming Biden and the DOJ wanted Trump dead \u2014 even though he wasn\u2019t even present on the property that day. \u2018WOW! I just came out of the Biden Witch Hunt Trial in Manhattan, the \u2018Icebox,\u2019 and was shown Reports that Crooked Joe Biden\u2019s DOJ, in their Illegal and UnConstitutional Raid of Mar-a-Lago, AUTHORIZED THE FBI TO USE DEADLY (LETHAL) FORCE,\u2019 Trump wrote Tuesday of the FBI\u2019s boilerplate authorization to use deadly force. \u201cNOW WE KNOW, FOR SURE, THAT JOE BIDEN IS A SERIOUS THREAT TO DEMOCRACY. HE IS MENTALLY UNFIT TO HOLD OFFICE \u2014 25TH AMENDMENT!\u201d In a campaign fundraising email, Trump further claimed that he \u2018nearly escaped death\u2019 and that Biden was \u2018locked & loaded ready to take me out!’\u201d \u2022 In fact, the FBI warrants did authorize deadly force \u2014 it\u2019s boilerplate language. That said, the liberal Democrats currently orchestrating a dogpile on this are unlikely to have had family members whacked by cops, or doors busted down by SWAT teams deployed to the wrong address, or stopped and then assaulted for putative tail-light violations, or experienced asset seizure when carrying cash. Those delectations are reserved for (fractions of) the working class, to whom Trump is trying to appeal. So turn the record* over and play the other side. NOTE * A vinyl recording medium, for those who came in late.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cMeet Trump\u2019s \u2018Human Printer’\u201d [The Bulwark]. \u201cWhenever Donald Trump brandishes a stack of papers or reads a printout of a social media post, he\u2019s relying on the work of Natalie Harp. Harp, 32, occupies a unique role in the history of presidential campaigns: aide who travels with a portable printer (plus paper and rechargeable batteries in a large bag) whose job is to feed Trump a steady stream of information on 8.5\u00d711\u2033 pieces of paper. That way, the 77-year-old doesn\u2019t have to strain his eyes on a smartphone to read all the news that\u2019s fit to print in MAGAville. Harp\u2019s nickname on the campaign\u2014\u2019the human printer\u2019\u2014underplays her importance. That\u2019s because in Trump\u2019s orbit [or any powerful person\u2019s], proximity to the principal is power. And with her portable printer at the ready, Harp is constantly around Trump\u2014whether she\u2019s sitting close to the defense table in the Manhattan courthouse on weekdays or riding the links with Trump on Sundays in Florida. Perhaps more than anyone else, Harp gatekeeps much of what Trump sees on social media and reads in the news. \u2018If you want the President to see something, the best route is Natalie,\u2019 says a knowledgeable source who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the internal workings of Trump\u2019s inner team and who has passed information to the candidate via Harp. \u2018Don\u2019t underestimate her importance.\u2019 It\u2019s been an interesting journey for Harp. She comes from a conservative Christian family in California and graduated from Liberty University in 2015.\u201d \u2022 Once we had \u201cbody men.\u201d Now we have \u201chuman printers\u201d!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cLiberals sound the alarm: Biden is losing\u201d [Washington Examiner]. \u201cPresident Joe Biden is trailing, and liberal pundits are increasingly saying he has mainly himself to blame\u2026 [I]t is a trend in elite Democratic and liberal opinion that should worry the Biden camp. If this is what people are willing to contemplate with Trump ahead by 1.1 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics polling average, what happens if the Democrats lose ground? Or if Trump gets a mistrial, or even an acquittal bounce, should he not be convicted in the New York hush money trial? The Biden campaign would like Democrats to be patient. Trump\u2019s polling lead isn\u2019t that big. The polls arguably understated Democratic support in the midterm elections and some special elections. Team Biden believes it has the better ground game. The decision to debate suggests Bidenworld has some sense that the incumbent is losing, but outside allies see a five-alarm fire.\u201d \u2022 Events, dear boy, events. Biden\u2019s election prospects would also seem to depend greatly on actions by Putin, Zelensky, Netanyahu, and Xi, none of whom are under Biden\u2019s control. <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
NH: \u201cShock Poll: Trump Tied With Biden in Blue New Hampshire\u201d [NH Journal]. \u201cDemocrats have all but owned the Granite State\u2019s four Electoral College votes, winning seven of the past eight presidential contests \u2013 including Joe Biden\u2019s eight-point victory over President Donald Trump in 2020. But the latest NHJournal\/Praecones Analytica poll finds Biden tied with Trump in New Hampshire, putting him at risk of becoming the first Democrat to lose the state since Al Gore in 2000.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cScoop: Senate Democrats plot reproductive-rights blitz\u201d [Axios]. \u201cSenate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is planning to zero in on reproductive rights next month \u2014 potentially forcing Republicans to take tough votes on issues such as contraception and in vitro fertilization\u2026. The move is meant to tap into the potency of abortion rights as a voter-turnout generator for Democrats five months from Election Day. It\u2019s timed to roughly coincide with the two-year anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, on June 24\u2026. November ballot measures seeking to guarantee abortion rights are either locked in or under consideration in several states \u2014 including Arizona*, Montana, Nevada* and Florida \u2014 that also are home to Senate races that could be pivotal in determining control of the chamber next year.\u201d \u2022 NOTE * Swing states.<\/p>\n
\u201cBiden Is Counting on Abortion to Help Him Win. That\u2019s Risky\u201d [MSN]. \u201cIt may feel like Dobbs has increased public support for abortion, but three major polls don\u2019t register much change in opinion. Gallup has run the same abortion poll around once a year for decades\u2014in which a majority of respondents, since 1989, said they thought Roe should not be overturned. As for support for legal abortion, in May 2023, Gallup found that 34 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in any circumstances. In May 2022, it was 35 percent; in 2021, 32 percent. Pew has found similar numbers over the years, with an increase of just a few points in support for abortion being legal in most cases since Dobbs and a slight decrease in those who want abortion to be legal in all cases. Overall, Dobbs appears not to have significantly changed people\u2019s views on whether abortion should be legal. A few findings in the 2024 Pew poll further complicate the image of abortion as a broadly popular get-out-the-vote issue. About six in 10 respondents (58 percent) said it would be easy for someone to get an abortion in the area where they live, and only 31 percent of respondents said it should be easier. (It\u2019s not immediately clear how those groups overlap.) Among Democrats specifically, only 48 percent wanted obtaining an abortion to be easier. This suggests that while a majority of people in the United States think that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, about just as many think it\u2019s easy to get one, and some people don\u2019t think it needs to be any easier\u2014including many Democrats.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump says he will \u2018never advocate\u2019 for contraception restrictions after earlier saying he\u2019s \u2018looking at\u2019 them\u201d [Politico]. \u201cDonald Trump insisted in a social media post Tuesday that he has \u2018never, and will never advocate imposing restrictions on birth control or other contraceptives,\u2019 after an interview released hours earlier included Trump saying he\u2019s \u2018looking at\u2019 restrictions on contraception. The post came after Trump said in an interview with a local TV station in Pittsburgh that he plans to share a policy on contraception \u2018very shortly,\u2019 without providing details. \u2018We\u2019re looking at that, and I\u2019m going to have a policy on that very shortly and I think it\u2019s something that you\u2019ll find interesting,\u2019 Trump told KDKA political analyst Jon Delano when asked if he supported any restrictions on a person\u2019s right to contraception.\u201d \u2022 Well done Susie Wiles.<\/p>\n
\u201cVirginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin vetoes a bill that would protect access to contraception\u201d [USA Today]. \u201cRepublican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin vetoed a series of bills passed by the Democratic-controlled General Assembly Friday, including one that was aimed at protecting contraception access\u2026. The bill that Youngkin vetoed stated that a person \u2018shall have the right to obtain contraceptives and to engage in contraception\u2019 and that no commonwealth or locality should implement any rule that \u2018prohibits or restricts the sale, provision, or use of any contraceptives,\u2019 among other requirements\u2026. Youngkin argued in a veto statement that the bill \u2018creates an overly broad cause of action against political subdivisions and parents, as well as medical professionals\u2019 and \u2018undermines the fundamental right of parents to make decisions concerning their children\u2019s upbringing and care.’\u201d <\/p>\n
Republican Funhouse<\/p>\n
\u201cMike Johnson loses trio of key policy aides\u201d [Punchbowl News]. \u201cThree leading members of Speaker Mike Johnson\u2019s policy team are leaving his office by the end of May, robbing the House\u2019s top Republican of a critical core of experienced aides. Brittan Specht, Jason Yaworske and Preston Hill \u2014 all of whom also worked for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy \u2014 are heading to Michael Best Strategies, a lobbying firm with offices in D.C. and around the country. The departure, which is striking in size and in experience, strips Johnson of a significant amount of expertise in his domestic policy shop. Specht was McCarthy\u2019s policy director and was key in crafting the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which raised the debt limit and set budget levels for two years. Yaworske is a well-respected adviser to the speaker on the appropriations and budget matters. As the House Appropriations Committee begins marking up the FY2025 spending bills, Yaworske\u2019s expertise on government spending is in demand. And Hill, a longtime figure in GOP leadership, was in charge of overseeing House Republican policy in burgeoning policy areas such as cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence as well as Education and the Workforce and Financial Services. Another common thread here is that all three have been at the table during high-stakes negotiations \u2014 something that is a rarity at the top levels of the Republican leadership.\u201d \u2022 If you want a friend in Washington, buy a dog.<\/p>\n
Syndemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Maskstravaganza<\/p>\n
\u201cMasks and respirators for prevention of respiratory infections: a state of the science review\u201d [Trisha Greenhalgh, C. Raina MacIntyre et al\u2019, Clinical Microbiology Review]. Important. Magisterial. Quoting the Abstract in its entirety:<\/p>\n
This narrative review and meta-analysis summarizes a broad evidence base on the benefits\u2014and also the practicalities, disbenefits, harms and personal, sociocultural and environmental impacts\u2014of masks and masking. Our synthesis of evidence from over 100 published reviews and selected primary studies, including re-analyzing contested meta-analyses of key clinical trials, produced seven key findings. First, there is strong and consistent evidence for airborne transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and other respiratory pathogens. Second, masks are, if correctly and consistently worn, effective in reducing transmission of respiratory diseases and show a dose-response effect. Third, respirators are significantly more effective than medical or cloth masks. Fourth, mask mandates are, overall, effective in reducing community transmission of respiratory pathogens. Fifth, masks are important sociocultural symbols; non-adherence to masking is sometimes linked to political and ideological beliefs and to widely circulated mis- or disinformation. Sixth, while there is much evidence that masks are not generally harmful to the general population, masking may be relatively contraindicated in individuals with certain medical conditions, who may require exemption. Furthermore, certain groups (notably D\/deaf people) are disadvantaged when others are masked. Finally, there are risks to the environment from single-use masks and respirators. We propose an agenda for future research, including improved characterization of the situations in which masking should be recommended or mandated; attention to comfort and acceptability; generalized and disability-focused communication support in settings where masks are worn; and development and testing of novel materials and designs for improved filtration, breathability, and environmental impact.<\/p>\n
I must hustle along so that there\u2019s some on the 2024 elections, so in a bit I will circle back here and include Greenhalgh\u2019s entertainly brutal stomping of droplet dogmatists and, as a double bonus, Infection Prevention and Control (IPC\/IC infesting HICPAC, among other places).<\/p>\n
And now the thread (here is the ThreadReader version):<\/p>\n
On [genuflects] RCTs:<\/p>\n
We searched extensively for high-quality evidence in all fields. We did NOT assume that all RCT evidence was \u201cgold standard\u201d, nor that all non-RCT evidence was \u201clow-quality\u201d. Indeed, we questioned whether the RCT deserves its hallowed status in this field. 6\/ pic.twitter.com\/ozZuRoh3FW<\/p>\n
\u2014 Trisha Greenhalgh (@trishgreenhalgh) May 22, 2024<\/p>\n
On the one decent RCT, which HICPAC suppressed:<\/p>\n
We searched extensively for high-quality evidence in all fields. We did NOT assume that all RCT evidence was \u201cgold standard\u201d, nor that all non-RCT evidence was \u201clow-quality\u201d. Indeed, we questioned whether the RCT deserves its hallowed status in this field. 6\/ pic.twitter.com\/ozZuRoh3FW<\/p>\n
\u2014 Trisha Greenhalgh (@trishgreenhalgh) May 22, 2024<\/p>\n
On [genuflects] IC\/IPC (Infection Control\/Infection Prevention and Control):<\/p>\n
We searched extensively for high-quality evidence in all fields. We did NOT assume that all RCT evidence was \u201cgold standard\u201d, nor that all non-RCT evidence was \u201clow-quality\u201d. Indeed, we questioned whether the RCT deserves its hallowed status in this field. 6\/ pic.twitter.com\/ozZuRoh3FW<\/p>\n
\u2014 Trisha Greenhalgh (@trishgreenhalgh) May 22, 2024<\/p>\n
On the stupidest of the many stupid anti-masker talking points:<\/p>\n
We searched extensively for high-quality evidence in all fields. We did NOT assume that all RCT evidence was \u201cgold standard\u201d, nor that all non-RCT evidence was \u201clow-quality\u201d. Indeed, we questioned whether the RCT deserves its hallowed status in this field. 6\/ pic.twitter.com\/ozZuRoh3FW<\/p>\n
\u2014 Trisha Greenhalgh (@trishgreenhalgh) May 22, 2024<\/p>\n
All of which explains why this Brownnose Institute weasel instantly slithered out of his scrimy burrow to defend the discredited anti-mask Cochrane study:<\/p>\n
The first version of this meta analysis of physical interventions to stop virus spread came out in 2006. It has been updated ever since. The conclusion: they don’t work. Everyone knew this in 2020. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Jeffrey A Tucker (@jeffreyatucker) May 20, 2024<\/p>\n
Note that the Cochrane study was funded, at one remove, by Brownstone Institute dark money, as I show here, and Brownstone also snuck one of their creatures, Carl Heneghan, into the study as an unlisted author but without credit, violating Cochrane\u2019s putatively rigorous standards.<\/p>\n
Denial and Cope<\/p>\n
(1) \u201cTrust your immune system\u201d:<\/p>\n
Haha.
Trusting your immune system.<\/p>\n
What an absolutely ****ing stupid thing to say. <\/p>\n
\u2014 tern (@1goodtern) May 19, 2024<\/p>\n
(2) \u201cTrust your immune system\u201d:<\/p>\n
“Hey babe, I don’t want to \u2013 they’re uncomfortable. Don’t you trust your immune system?” -Marc Veldhoen<\/p>\n
\/s<\/p>\n
\u2014 Existential Bread (@exist_bread) May 21, 2024<\/p>\n
(3) \u201cTrust your immune system\u201d:<\/p>\n
My immune system attacked my thyroid (hashimoto\u2019s disease). I don\u2019t trust it and will enhance at every opportunity.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Hurricane henri br\u00e9boeuf \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6\ud83d\udc27 (@HenriBreboeuf) May 22, 2024<\/p>\n
(4) \u201cTrust your immune system\u201d:<\/p>\n
I have SLE and Hashimoto’s. My immune system almost killed me with a rare and aggressive form of lymphoma. Recently, I was a little too aggressive with the dental floss, cutting my gum. My immune system decided sepsis was the appropriate remedy. Trust my immune system? Ha!<\/p>\n
\u2014 Eva Hamilton she\/her (@TOknitter) May 22, 2024<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t understand the mentality behind this oft-repeated piece of folk wisdom at all. I trust my eyes, but I wear glasses. I trust my feet, but I wear shoes. \u201cExperience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions,\u201d as Madison put it. But not all agree\u2013<\/p>\n
(5) \u201cTrust your immune system\u201d:<\/p>\n
#donotcomplytoanotherlie #freespeech with a #sticker. #donotcomply. #Godisgood and he gave us an immune system that can combat anything. #wethepeople need to take care of ourselves #holistically. We can\u2019t trust our medical system. <\/p>\n
\u2014 TruthforWethePeople (@TammyQue_1111) May 22, 2024<\/p>\n
(6) \u201cTrust your immune system\u201d\u2026. A-a-a-a-n-d this Brownnose Institute weasel crawls out of his hole again:<\/p>\n
Having studied and written about all of this for four years, and looking even at the prevailing pandemic plans for the future, it\u2019s my considered opinion that the whole protocol was designed for one purpose. The intention from the beginning was to preserve the immunological\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 Jeffrey A Tucker (@jeffreyatucker) May 21, 2024<\/p>\n
Read that carefully. It\u2019s the subtlest justification for mass murder I\u2019ve ever seen.<\/p>\n
Transmission: Monkeypox<\/p>\n
\u201cCDC issues stark warning on rapid spread of deadlier Mpox strain\u201d [FOX32]. \u201che Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a stark warning to Americans this week regarding the rapid spread of a deadlier form of Mpox currently sweeping through the Democratic Republic of the Congo. While the outbreak has yet to reach the shores of the United States, the CDC has intensified surveillance measures as a precautionary measure. In response to the escalating situation, the CDC and health officials advised individuals at high risk to get vaccinated and take necessary precautions. This recommendation is particularly pertinent for those with weakened immune systems.\u201d \u2022 And what would those \u201cprecautions\u201d be? Anything non-pharmaceutical?<\/p>\n
Prevention<\/p>\n
\u201cCould Putting Neosporin in Your Nose Fend Off COVID?\u201d [Scientific American]. We linked to this PNAS study back in April. \u201c\u201dThis is a research study\u2014it\u2019s not a clinical study, and it\u2019s certainly not intended for people to go out there and start using Neosporin every day,\u2019 says Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University and a co-author of the new research. \u2018It\u2019s just an initial pilot study.\u2019 Iwasaki hadn\u2019t heard about the interest in nasal Neosporin early in the pandemic, but she is working to find new uses for widely available products, and the popular ointment fits that bill. Intriguingly, one of the three antibiotics it contains is neomycin, which is an aminoglycoside compound\u2014a group of chemicals that she and other researchers had, in 2018, determined increased resistance to a range of viruses in mice. When an aminoglycoside encounters a bacterium and acts as an antibiotic, the compound interferes with the microbe\u2019s ability to make proteins. But that\u2019s not how Neosporin might fight off viruses. Instead neomycin appears to rev up the innate immune system in this case. That system recognizes foreign substances in general, in contrast to the adaptive immune system, which recognizes and attacks specific foreign materials it has encountered before. Specifically, neomycin appears to trigger the expression of what scientists call interferon-stimulated genes: a set of hundreds of genes\u2014perhaps even one tenth of a human\u2019s genes\u2014that appear to play a role in the innate immune system. During an infection, the body produces a compound called interferon that binds to these genes and dials up the innate immune system. Neomycin appears to accomplish the same result, although the scientists aren\u2019t sure exactly how. \u2018It\u2019s basically tricking the host into thinking there\u2019s a viral infection and inducing these protective genes,\u2019 Iwasaki says. In the new research, she and her colleagues tested neomycin in a handful of different experiments. In one, they treated mice nasally with concentrated neomycin, then gave them the virus that causes COVID (also via a nasal route). Treated mice lost less weight and were less likely to die from the infection. In a separate experiment, the researchers gave already infected mice neomycin, and the effect was similar. The findings suggest that neomycin both protected the mice from infection and helped them fight it off.\u201d \u2022 Seems like this is low cost, low risk, very high gain?<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Patient readers, I\u2019m going to have to rethink this beautifully formatted table. Biobot data is gone, CDC variant data functions, ER visits are dead, CDC stopped mandatory hospital data collection, New York Times death data has stopped. (Note that the two metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have both gone dark). Ideally I would replace hospitalization and death data, but I\u2019m not sure how. I might also expand the wastewater section to include (yech) Verily data, H5N1 if I can get it. Suggestions and sources welcome. UPDATE I replaced the Times death data with CDC data. Amusingly, the URL doesn\u2019t include parameters to construct the tables; one must reconstruct then manually each time. Caltrops abound.<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (Biobot) Dead.<\/p>\n
[2] (Biobot) Dead.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that the model completely missed KP.2.<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Slightly, but distinctly up. The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and around the country through air travel). So my natural inclination is to see how wastewater at JFK and EWR is doing. CDC, before it decided to butcher wastewater visualization, provided data down to the sewage treatment plant level, so I could check the Brooklyn plant for JFK (and also the Brooklyn plant for LGA). Well, that\u2019s no longer possible, but the Verily [vomits quietly] wastewater site \u2014 Biobot being kaput \u2014 provides data on EWR. Here it is:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/newark_airport.png\")
<\/p>\n
So, New York City Hospitalization up, Covid from air travel up. Make of that what you will. Covid is also up in Singapore and France, you will recall.<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. \u201cMaps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET\u2020\u201d. <\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Up and down.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) KP.2 enters the chat, as does B.1.1.529 (with backward revision).<\/p>\n
[11] CDC\u2019s data and visualization, still being updated.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
Housing: \u201cUnited States Existing Home Sales\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cExisting home sales in the US declined 1.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.14 million units in April 2024, the lowest in three months, compared to an upwardly revised 4.22 million in March and forecasts of 4.21 million. \u201cHome sales changed little overall, but the upper-end market is experiencing a sizable gain due to more supply coming onto the market,\u201d said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Sales declined in the four major US regions.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Tech: \u201cOpenAI No Longer Takes Safety Seriously\u201d [Lawfare] \u201cFor top-tier AI researchers who, like Sustskever and Leike, are seriously concerned about AI risk, OpenAI is arguably the best place in the world to work. It is the leading lab pursuing AGI. It currently has the best AI systems\u2014crucial objects of study for safety work. It has top-notch talent and immense resources. For an engineer hoping to help solve the alignment problem and ensure that advanced AI benefits, rather than harms, humans, a job at OpenAI is hard to beat. It is also arguably the place to be for someone who hopes to be well-positioned to sound the alarm if and when a truly dangerous AI system arrives. Thus, if Leike, Kokotajlo, and O\u2019Keefe are being honest when they say that AI risk is deadly serious, then their departures should themselves constitute alarm bells. By leaving OpenAI, they are foregoing perhaps the best opportunity to make substantive progress on the problem that, by their lights, is the most important. The only reason for them to leave would be if it were clear that OpenAI really had abandoned its commitment to supporting safety work.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Note the source, and note the images here. So, hmm.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 61 Greed (previous close: 62 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 61 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated May 22 at 1:21:43 PM ET.<\/p>\n
The Gallery<\/p>\n
Speaking of waves:<\/p>\n
Gustave Courbet, The Wave pic.twitter.com\/KKWxC2rUpf<\/p>\n
\u2014 Impressions (@impression_ists) May 20, 2024<\/p>\n
Given Courbet\u2019s \u201ccomplex\u201d political views, perhaps there\u2019s a subtext here.<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
I am not feeling wired today (or all too wired, I\u2019m not sure).<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From GS:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/fern_tree.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
GS writes: \u201cFern Trees, Flecker Gardens, Cairns QLD Australia.\u201d Looks like a dinosair\u2019s crudit\u00e9!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png\")
<\/p>\n
If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n
![\"Print](\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n