By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/p>\n
Patient readers, this is a travel day for me, I am very tired, and I am writing this from a vast transportation edifice after a liquid lunch. So please forgive any solecisms or incoherencies. \u2013lambert P.S. Plus, I\u2019m pressing submit while I still have connectivity, so this will be a little short.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Finger Lakes National Forest, Tompkins, New York, United States. 26 minutes of Grosbeak madness. Grab a cup of coffee! And thanks to all the birders who left comments yesterday. <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
(1) Naptime for Donald\u2026 <\/p>\n
(2) Pennsylvania battleground;<\/p>\n
(3) Columbia pro-Palestine demonstration.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than a year to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\u2605 RCP Poll Averages, April 19:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/rcp_4-19-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Here this Friday\u2019s RCP polling. Trump is still doing very well in almost all the Swing States (more here), leading with one exception: PA. Forget all the arithmetic, and look at PA as a test of the Trump campaign\u2019s basic competence. What are they doing to fix this? (I\u2019ll work out a better way to present this, but for now: Blue dot = move toward Biden; red dot = move toward Trump. No dot = no change (presumably because state polls are not that numerous so far from election day).<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): Strategic napping:<\/p>\n
A feeble and tired Donald Trump once again falls asleep in court pic.twitter.com\/IONvb1cH5Y<\/p>\n
\u2014 Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) April 19, 2024<\/p>\n
Nonsense. Trump is a \u201cback row kid,\u201d in Chris Arnade\u2019s formulation (or playing at being one). The front row kids at the DNC don\u2019t get it.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): Does quoting other people violate the gag order?<\/p>\n
Donald Trump is under a gag order from the judge in New York on the nondisclosure trial and instead of speaking out against the case he\u2019s reading a sheaf of articles of others lambasting Alvin Bragg\u2019s zombie case.
The dude\u2019s indefatigable. pic.twitter.com\/1GGSPgduvN<\/p>\n
\u2014 Brian Doherty (@BDOH) April 18, 2024<\/p>\n
Perhaps not in the public mind (\u201cHe never said it! This other guy said it!\u201d)<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cJury of 12 Is Seated in Trump Criminal Trial\u201d [New York Times]. Juror #1: \u201cworks in sales\u201d (West Harlem); #2: \u201cworks in finance\u201d (Hell\u2019s Kitchen); #3 \u201cworks in the legal field\u201d (Chelsea); #4: \u201can engineer\u201d (Upper West Side); #5: \u201cworks in education\u201d (Harlem); #6: \u201cworks in technology\u201d (Chelsea): #7: \u201cworks in the legal field\u201d (Upper East Side); #8: \u201cworked in finance\u201d (Upper East Side); #9: \u201cworks in an educational setting\u201d (Upper East Side); #10: \u201cbusinessman\u201d (Murray Hill); #11 \u201cproduct manager\u201d (Upper Manhattan); and #12 \u201cworks in health care\u201d (Upper East Side). \u2022 Spot the lone holdout! Seriously, four from the Upper East Side? What\u2019re the odds? Also, I don\u2019t think the two finance people will be too happy with Trump\u2019s, let\u2019s face it, shenanigans. even if compliance is for thee and not for me.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201c2 of Trump\u2019s jurors are lawyers. Would they acquit on a technicality?\u201d [Politico]. \u201cOf the seven jurors selected for Trump\u2019s hush money trial so far, one is a civil litigator at a large white-shoe law firm, and another is a corporate lawyer at a firm focused on start-ups and venture capital\u2026. One of the lawyers on Trump\u2019s jury, the civil litigator, signaled during jury selection that he was well aware of that concern. \u2018I\u2019m a litigator,\u2019 he said, \u2018so I take the law seriously, and I take judges\u2019 instructions very seriously.’\u201d \u2022 This ran in Links this morning, but I want to file away the specialities of the two lawyers.<\/p>\n
Trump (R): Of course, this isn\u2019t a \u201chush money\u201d case (see NC here). But if it were:<\/p>\n
I’m old enough to remember 1998 when Bill Clinton paid Paula Jones $850,000 to settle sexual harassment claims and he wasn’t criminally charged. <\/p>\n
Alvin Bragg should be charged for prosecutorial misconduct and the judge disbarred. pic.twitter.com\/zGOjclchJM<\/p>\n
\u2014 John Cardillo (@johncardillo) April 19, 2024<\/p>\n
Who knows? Maybe we\u2019ll get lucky and Bragg will disclose his theory of the case on Monday!<\/p>\n
Trump (R): Interesting example of Trump\u2019s \u201clocal campaigning\u201d in Manhattan:<\/p>\n
HAPPENING NOW: President Trump departs Trump Tower, 721 Fifth Avenue, for day 4 of Alvin Bragg’s sham trial. Here\u2019s a quick look at Trump Tower\u2019s rich history: Its construction started in 1979 and completed in 1983, standing out as a 58-story building with a distinctive brass and\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/2zXmYSeyRD<\/p>\n
\u2014 LivePDDave \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 (@LivePDDave1) April 19, 2024<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Kennedy (I): Before you click through, it\u2019s pay-per-view:<\/p>\n
\n
\u2014 alexanichadhain (@alexanichadhain) April 18, 2024<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cDemocrats begin to outpace Republicans in fundraising for key House races\u201d [NBC]. \u201cDemocratic candidates outraised Republicans in almost every one of the most competitive seats in the race for the House, according to new fundraising reports filed this week, a setback for Republicans who had been hoping their candidates were turning a corner\u2026. Ten of the 11 Republican incumbents in races rated as \u201ctoss ups\u201d by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter were outraised by at least one Democratic challenger\u2026. Republican incumbents who were outraised include: Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani of Arizona; John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia and Ken Calvert of California; Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey; and Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Anthony D\u2019Esposito of New York\u2026. And Republican candidates were also outraised in two other \u2018toss-up\u2019 seats being vacated by Democratic incumbents in Michigan.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
PA: Video from Trump rally at Schenksville. described yesterday:<\/p>\n
DEVELOPING IN PENNSYLVANIA: Massive Crowd At Trump Rally. WATCH pic.twitter.com\/LG8hNXPBPF<\/p>\n
\u2014 Simon Ateba (@simonateba) April 13, 2024<\/p>\n
Impressive. Not dispositive, of course; think of Sanders.<\/p>\n
PA: Organizing PA:<\/p>\n
We Are Registering Amish to Vote<\/p>\n
Joe Biden \u201cwon\u201d Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes:<\/p>\n
\u25aa\ufe0fThere are 80,000 Amish in PA
\u25aa\ufe0fThere are 80,000 truckers in PA
\u25aa\ufe0fThere are 800,000 veterans in PA
\u25aa\ufe0fThere are 930,000 hunters in PA<\/p>\n
If we register to vote & mobilize these coalitions, we will win.\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/WED8Q5E78y<\/p>\n
\u2014 ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) March 2, 2024<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll see. I don\u2019t see how the ground war beat the air war if the ground war doesn\u2019t have enough money \u2014 or a candidate who can\u2019t rally the troops because he\u2019s in court. (I would speculate from yesterday tha\\t many of those truckers are likely to be Latino, a demographic where Trump is gaining. Thinking in terms of identity politics, it\u2019s will be a pretty neat trick to get the Amish and Latino truckers lined up on the same side.)<\/p>\n
PA: \u201cBiden v. Trump: The Fight for Pennsylvania Is On\u201d [Philadelphia Gay News]. \u201cWhen Trump was in Schnecksville, where a large crowd waited in line for three hours to see him, Biden was dealing with a possible global crisis. Iran had attacked Israel in a retaliatory missile and drone strike in response to Israel\u2019s earlier attack on an Iranian embassy, taking out Hamas figures tied to Iran. That juxtaposition made for some strange moments at the Schnecksville event when the crowd chanted \u2018Genocide Joe,\u2019 a rallying cry usually associated with far-left pro-Palestinian protesters. In response, Trump said, \u2018They\u2019re not wrong, they\u2019re not wrong. He\u2019s done everything wrong.’\u201d There\u2019s Trump\u2019s A\/B testing, right there. More: \u201cThat chanting highlighted a difficult issue for Biden that will likely follow him throughout the primary and possibly into November. Those chants may have been ignored by the Biden camp, which was trying to contain an increasingly rogue Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, but it was not ignored by either the media nor leftists themselves, many of whom are considering ways to vote \u2018uncommitted\u201d in the Pennsylvania primary April 23.\u201d \u2022 Sort of amazing to see \u201cGenocide Joe\u201d \u201cjump the species barrier\u201d like that; and so fast! <\/p>\n
PA: \u201cA Biden Victory in November Turns On This State\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cAs Mr. Biden works to sell voters on his accomplishments, and himself, he will have to do it across wildly different parts of Pennsylvania. Winning here means playing everywhere, say the state\u2019s political hands \u2014 pretty much all of whom can recite the vote margins a Democrat needs to aim for in Philadelphia, its collar counties, Allegheny (home to Pittsburgh), this western enclave, that area of the Lehigh Valley and even the \u2018T counties\u2019 running up the center and across the top of the state that typically go Republican. Boiled down, the blue-team blueprint is: run up the numbers in and around Philly, do well in Allegheny and other select spots and hold down Republicans\u2019 margins of victory in the more rural areas. \u2018You can\u2019t rely on the places traditionally friendly to us. You have to close the margins in places we\u2019re not going to win,\u2019 said Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, a Democrat. Take the reliably red counties of Westmoreland, in the Pittsburgh region, and rural Northumberland, he offered: \u2018You can lose 60-40, but you can\u2019t lose 70-30. It makes a huge difference.\u2019 \u2018Margins matter!\u2019 confirmed State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, who is running statewide for auditor general. This is especially true if turnout in Philadelphia is not so hot \u2014 which, Democrats say, has been the case for several years.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Republican Funhouse<\/p>\n
Very funny:<\/p>\n
The amendment that Marjorie Taylor Greene just proposed to sabotage the Ukraine bill is something that is such a nuanced Russian disinfo narrative that it could have only come directly from her Russian handlers.<\/p>\n
The notion that Hungarians are being persecuted in Ukraine is\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/RT3VtYnWgF<\/p>\n
\u2014 Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) April 18, 2024<\/p>\n
I can\u2019t sort which Ukrainian ox is gored by MTG\u2019s amendment, but it would be amusing if it were the Banderites.<\/p>\n
Democrats en D\u00e9shabill\u00e9<\/p>\n
The next Democrat Mama Bear is good but I\u2019m not buying it:<\/p>\n
“What do you say to a young progressive or an Arab-American who says to you, ‘I just can’t vote for Biden again after what he’s enabled in Gaza.’?<\/p>\n
Listen to a detailed, thoughtful, & important answer to my Q from @AOC at the Zeteo launch. (Do try & actually listen & not assume!) pic.twitter.com\/nJiCXTen9a<\/p>\n
\u2014 Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) April 19, 2024<\/p>\n
Tne party of lawfare and the Censorship Industrial Complex doesn\u2019t have standing to defend \u201cour democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Realignment and Legitimacy<\/p>\n
Filing the Columbia protests here, because shades of 1968. This is in no sense exhaustive!<\/p>\n
Columbia (1): Cornel West (and not anyone else):<\/p>\n
Cornel West arrived to Columbia and hopped the fence of the south lawn, to massive applause (and some kids asking \u201cWho is that?\u201d).<\/p>\n
\u201cUse your platform for peace!\u201d someone tells him as he readies to hop. \u201cAnd justice!\u201d he adds. pic.twitter.com\/ylUb9FmtRp<\/p>\n
\u2014 Talia Jane \u2764\ufe0f\u200d\ud83d\udd25 (@taliaotg) April 18, 2024<\/p>\n
Columbia (2): DEI doing what it\u2019s supposed to do:<\/p>\n
Today we’re going to see Columbia University’s first Arab president work with New York City’s black cop mayor work with the nypd’s first Latino Chief to arrest as many diverse students as possible. Only in America\u2122\ufe0f<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr. Thrasher (@thrasherxy) April 18, 2024<\/p>\n
Columbia (3): LIfe in the Big House:<\/p>\n
WAIT, WAIT, we have a last minute entry: For emailing Barnard & Columbia students that they have 15 minutes to pack up & get out (in violation of NYC tenant law?) Leslie Grinage, VP for Campus Life & Student Experience & Dean, YOU ARE the inaugural #DailyOverseer! #OverseerAwards <\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr. Thrasher (@thrasherxy) April 19, 2024<\/p>\n
Pandemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Airborne Transmission: Monkeypox<\/p>\n
\u201cMpox, smallpox and the increasing threat of orthopoxvirus epidemics\u201d [Global Biosecurity]. \u201cWe should be on high alert for orthopoxvirus epidemics because of large, ongoing epidemics of mpox in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Mpox has been resurgent in the African continent in countries like Nigeria and DRC since 2017, where the infection is endemic in animals and can be zoonotic or human-to-human transmitted\u2026 In fact, smallpox and mpox are respiratory viruses, and mpox has been identified in ambient air.\u201d \u2022\u00a0I\u2019m sure Baggy Blues will do the job, totally.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a level far above valleys under Trump. Not a great victory. Note also the area \u201cunder the curve,\u201d besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.<\/p>\n
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons\u2026.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.\u201d \u201cBiweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.\u201d Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they\u2019re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game.<\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it looks like \u201cendemicity,\u201d but to me it looks like another tranche of lethality.<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. \u201cMaps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET\u2020\u201d. <\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend?<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Still down.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 dominates utterly.<\/p>\n
[11] Looks like the Times isn\u2019t reporting death data any more? Maybe I need to go back to The Economist\u2026. <\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
There are no official statistics of interest today.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 32 Fear (previous close: 34 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 46 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Apr 19 at 12:03:21 PM ET.<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
\u201cUp in the air: Presence and collection of DNA from air and air conditioner units\u201d [Electrophoresis] \u201cResults of this pilot study show that human DNA can be collected on air conditioner unit surfaces and from the air, with air samples representing the more recent occupation while air conditioner units showing historic use of the room.\u201d \u2022 Now here\u2019s a happy thought!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Desert Dog:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/southside_doghouse.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
Desert Dog writes: \u201cAfter the photo I took this morning of the snow wood pile and tree, this afternoon I was walking around in a fierce wind and found something my partner snuck in the ground on the south side of my doghouse last year evidently.\u201d Normally I try to maintain the Plant queue in some rough order, but I felt this was newsworthy. (Nice woodpile that was, too!)<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:<\/p>\n
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/contribution.png\")
<\/p>\n
If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n
![\"Print](\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n