By Lambert Strether of Corrente.<\/p>\n
Bird Song of the Day<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
House Wren (Northern). Frog Hollow, Walla Walla, Washington, United States. \u201cThis bird was singing every morning before dawn, outside my home.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In Case You Might Miss\u2026 <\/p>\n
(1) Swing states update.<\/p>\n
(2) Bird flu and the CDC; Mandy bobbing and weaving.<\/p>\n
(3) Employment situation.<\/p>\n
(4) Crocheting and knitting, with musical accompaniments.<\/p>\n
Politics<\/p>\n
\u201cSo many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.\u201d \u2013Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Biden Administration<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Only U.S. Lawmaker Born in Ukraine Is Now Skeptical of More Aid\u201d [Wall Street Journal]. \u201cRep. Victoria Spartz speaks in highly personal terms about the horrors that her friends and family in Ukraine have witnessed since Russia invaded her home country more than two years ago. Her 95-year-old grandmother died several months after a bomb blew out the windows in her apartment. \u2018The stress was hard on her,\u2019 she said. But when it comes to the U.S. sending billions in more aid to the beleaguered country, Spartz is skeptical\u2026. In a series of interviews, Spartz, 45 years old, said she wants a clearer strategy from President Biden on U.S. involvement in the war and a closer eye on how aid is spent. She also wants any aid sent to Ukraine to be offered as a loan, and for the administration to pay more attention to issues closer to home. \u2018I understand the importance of this battle and the implications if Russia is going to prevail, but I\u2019m also not very naive. If we don\u2019t have proper oversight, we are not going to achieve our goals,\u2019 she said. \u2018We cannot have these never-ending wars.\u2019 Voters in Spartz\u2019s suburban Indianapolis district are opposed to Ukraine aid for many of the same reasons, she said, mirroring nationwide pressures on incumbent Republicans.\u201d \u2022 Hmm. That may change, of course, if and when Republicans control the executive branch again.<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Less than a year to go!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
RCP Poll Averages, April 5<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/rcp_poll_4-5.png\")
<\/p>\n
Here is Friday\u2019s RCP poll. Trump is still up in all the Swing States (more here), but still leading with one exception: PA. I\u2019ve highlighted it again, (1) because Biden is now up there, and (2) it\u2019s an outlier, has been for weeks. Why isn\u2019t Trump doing well there? (I\u2019ll work out a better way to do this, but for now: Blue dot = move toward Biden; red dot = move toward Trump. No statistical signficance to any of it, and state polls are bad anyhow!)<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201cWhen Trump needs cash, a California bank and one of its top shareholders have come to the rescue\u201d [Associated Press]. Don Hankey and Axos bank once more. \u201cOver the past two years, Axos Bank, as well as its largest individual shareholder, California billionaire Don Hankey, have collectively extended more than $500 million in financing that has benefited Trump, records show. The cash influx has helped Trump to pay off debts and pocket a tidy profit while escaping from a lease on his money-losing former hotel in Washington. It also covered a $175 million down payment he made this week on an eye-popping civil fraud penalty. Axos Bank officials as well as Hankey have said that the deals offer them a financial upside. But as Trump again pursues the White House, ethics and legal experts question what the lenders may ask in return if there\u2019s a future Trump presidency, considering even small regulatory changes can translate into millions of dollars in earnings.\u201d \u2022 As usual Trump deals direct, instead of working through straws\u2026.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201c\u2018The nuclear button\u2019: Special counsel could seek removal of judge in Trump classified docs case, attorneys warn\u201d [NBC]. \u201cSpecial counsel Jack Smith could soon seek to have the judge presiding over former President Donald Trump\u2019s classified documents case recused, prosecutors and defense attorneys warn, describing Smith as being pressed to the \u2018breaking point\u2019 over arguments his office said could taint a trial irrevocably. Smith faulted Judge Aileen Cannon in a scathing rebuke for seeming to take at face value Trump\u2019s \u2018fundamentally flawed\u2019 claim around a president\u2019s official and personal records when she asked both sides to put forth competing versions of instructions for jurors in the case and said her request would \u2018distort\u2019 the trial. Smith indicated in that filing that if Cannon ruled against federal prosecutors, this could be a trigger for an appeal to the 11th Circuit that could remove her from the case. \u2018He is close to pushing the nuclear button,\u2019 said Palm Beach County State Attorney David Aronberg. \u2018It is a high burden to reach, and it is rarely done, but her proposed jury instructions may have pushed him to the breaking point.’\u201d \u2022 Another way of saying \u201cbreaking point\u201d is \u201cover-reach,\u201d as Smith did when trying McAuliffe. (And since when does a prosector determine what does and does not \u201cdistort\u201d a trial?)<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Trump (R): \u201c1 in 5 GOP primary voters keep bucking Trump. What does it mean?\u201d [WaPo]. \u201cNearly 1 in 5 GOP primary voters across four contests Tuesday voted for an option other than the presumptive nominee. That\u2019s about the same proportion that voted against him on the last big primary day, March 19\u2026. If you exclude low-turnout caucuses and deep-red Southern states, Trump is ceding an average of 20 percent since Super Tuesday.\u201d \u2022 Handy map (the states are laid out as they would be on a map of the United States, though it takes a minute to see that):<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/anti-trump.png\")
<\/p>\n
I have highlighted the swing states in yellow. I don\u2019t think people who don\u2019t vote for the Republican on primary day necessarily vote Republican on election day, but if I were the Trump campaign, I\u2019d be concerned about MI (32% (!!)), and NC (26%). PA and NV are yet to come.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Biden (D): \u201cThe Economy Is OK. Biden\u2019s Economy, Not So Much\u201d [The American Prospect]. \u201cBy a 20-point margin (54 percent to 34 percent), the [Wall Street Journal] swing-staters [polled] preferred Trump to Biden on the question of handling the economy. Where this really becomes interesting, though, is in their responses to their own states\u2019 economies. Asked to assess the condition of the economy in their own state and then in the nation as a whole, respondents in each of the seven states replied that their own state\u2019s economy was in far better shape than the nation\u2019s. Those who rated their own state\u2019s economy as \u201cnot so good\u201d or \u201cpoor\u201d did so at rates that ranged from 11 points to 33 points lower than their assessments of the nation\u2019s overall economy. At one level, this shouldn\u2019t come as a surprise: It somewhat echoes other recent polls in which Americans have rated their own families\u2019 economic condition to be notably better than the nation\u2019s. Neither the swing states\u2019 actual economic conditions nor the partisan makeup of state government seems to have had much effect on the respondents\u2019 answers. \u2026 But when all that discounting is done, it\u2019s still apparent that the association of Biden with economic conditions brings down the assessment of those conditions. Biden may yet be able to mitigate this by stressing his support for popular progressive economic policies, and the continuation of the recovery (in which his actual record is nothing short of stellar) may help some, too. But looking at this polling suggests that if he\u2019s to defeat Trump, abortion and Trump himself are the themes he most needs to sound.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
PA: \u201cDemocrats should be jittery about Pennsylvania voter registration trends\u201d [Washington Examiner]. \u201cBlue-collar voters became willing to leave the party altogether, especially after Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) made it efficient when he implemented a new measure that allowed residents getting driver\u2019s licenses and ID cards to be opted into their voter registration. Despite Republican lawmakers bellyaching about Shapiro\u2019s move, in the first month alone, 3,194 Democrats, 4,052 independents, and a whopping 7,657 Republicans have registered. If you are doing the math, as many Republicans registered in the state as Democrats and independents together, and even independent registration outpaced the Democrats by nearly 900. In July of last year, Democrats held a 480,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans, but by Oct. 10, that margin had fallen to 446,467. And the trend has continued in the six months since then.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cNo Labels officially drops out of the 2024 race. The truth is they were never in it.\u201d [USA Today]. \u201cNo Labels dropped plans Thursday for a so-called unity ticket, which was expected to be a moderate Republican running for president with an equally moderate Democrat as vice president.\u201d That\u2019s a damn shame. More: \u201cThe animosity for No Labels was often rooted in the group\u2019s secrecy, operating as a nonprofit with millions of dollars from donors it refused to identify.\u201d \u2022 Maybe the names of the donors are in the pocket of Joe Lieberman\u2019s funeral suit, in his coffin. Still, they kept the grift going for fourteen years, and that\u2019s something. Anyhow, they are said to have ballot access in 21 states, and now all that\u2019s all wasted. Sad.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
\u201cInside a G.O.P. Plan to Encourage Early Voting Despite Trump\u2019s Attacks\u201d [New York Times]. \u201cInside a sprawling compound in Phoenix, leaders of the influential conservative group Turning Point Action were hatching plans to fix what they see as a mortal threat to the Republican Party: its voters\u2019 avoidance of early voting, especially by mail, since the 2020 election.\u201d \u2022 IMNSHO, \u201cearly voting\u201d is wrong for three reasons: (1) It reinforces party loyalty, the last thing we need; (2) it makes it impossible for voters to change their minds having voted early, in response to a gaffe, a policy change, or \u201cevents, dear boy, events\u201d; (3) in principle, the entire electorate should vote based on the same set of information, and that\u2019s only possible when the vote takes place at one time.<\/p>\n
Our Famously Free Press<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Washington press corps doesn\u2019t have a freaking clue\u201d [Dan Froomkin, Press Watch]. \u201cBeing the lead writer for the New York Time\u2019s signature On Politics newsletter is one of the most influential jobs in the industry these days, and the email that popped up in my inbox announcing the latest hire for that job \u2013 a Boston Globe reporter named Jess Bidgood who had previously worked for the Times \u2014 made it painfully clear that she is absolutely clueless about the topic she is now covering, and intentionally so. Offered an opportunity to explain what she found particularly compelling about the coming election, Bidgood didn\u2019t talk about how the Republican Party has succumbed to the extreme Christian far-right. She didn\u2019t talk about how Trump was a hateful, dangerous demagogue. She didn\u2019t even mention the fate of democracy or the rule of law. Let me be very clear here: Whether or not the country succumbs to fascism is a helluva political story no matter how you feel about it. A Trump victory would profoundly change how government and justice are practiced. If you don\u2019t understand that, you are a wildly incompetent political reporter.\u201d \u2022\u00a0Froomkin was one of the original bloggers at WaPo, back in the day, and they dinged him for it, so I\u2019m reluctant to just utterly trash the guy. But I don\u2019t see how anyone can look at the Censorship Industrial Complex and not see elements of fascism. Fascism is not noted for ideological consistency; rather, it is an enormous smorgasbord of badness, from which both parties can pick and choose (I don\u2019t much like threatening election workers, for example). It\u2019s also perfectly reasonable to see the post-Reconstruction South as fascist \u2014 the Nazis came to study Jim Crow, after all \u2014 or, for that matter, some of the nastier elements of the Wilson Administration (like, say, the Espionage Act). This vision is, in fact, bleaker than the view that electing one party solves the problem. <\/p>\n
Pandemics<\/p>\n
\u201cI am in earnest \u2014 I will not equivocate \u2014 I will not excuse \u2014 I will not retreat a single inch \u2014 AND I WILL BE HEARD.\u201d \u2013William Lloyd Garrison<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); \u201cIowa COVID-19 Tracker\u201d (in IA, but national data). \u201cInfection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts\u201d (especially on hospitalization by city).<\/p>\n
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put \u201cCOVID\u201d in the subject line. Thank you!<\/p>\n
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d\u2019Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).<\/p>\n
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux us\u00e9es); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).<\/p>\n
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3). <\/p>\n
Stay safe out there!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Bird Flu<\/p>\n
\u201cBird flu dairy cow outbreak widens in Ohio, Kansas, New Mexico\u201d [Reuters]. \u201d Bird flu has infected a dairy herd in Ohio for the first time and was detected in additional herds in Kansas and New Mexico, according to the U.S. government, expanding an outbreak in cows that has raised concerns about possible risks to humans\u2026. The spread to an increasing number of species and its widening geographic reach have raised the risks of humans being infected, the head of the World Organization for Animal Health said on Thursday. Texas officials reported on Monday that a farm worker tested positive, and the only symptom was eye inflammation. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers the risk of bird flu for humans to be low.\u201d \u2022 I don\u2019t enjoy this, and I hope it sputters out. That said, we\u2019re dealing with the CDC here, which emerged from Covid the same, or worse, as it went in to Covid. No presumption of competence or honesty is reasonable. Moreover, the functioning of public health has been greatly degraded, worldwide, not only by the performance of public health bodies like CDC and WHO, but by an enormously successful propaganda campaign against non-pharmaceutical interventions, with libertarians and conservatives taking point for a capital-friendly agenda. Finally, crowding, air travel, and population movements generally remain the same (with work-from-home the single and laudatory exception). All of which to say is that the kindling has already been laid for another pandemic, and sooner rather than later. Maybe H5N1, maybe not. And speaking of capital-friendly:<\/p>\n
Just like the travel and commercial real estate market seemed to drive COVID policy, watch out for dairy cattle associations to drive H5N1 policy. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Michael Olesen \ud83d\udc89\ud83d\ude37\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@maolesen) April 4, 2024<\/p>\n
Yep. Egg producers are accustomed to culling all their stock; chickens are cheap. Cows are not cheap ($2500 apiece, IIRC). So look for beef producers to limit the cull, first resisting it entirely, then resisting it for mild cases, then resisting it for asymptomatic cases, etc. <\/p>\n
\u201cTests confirm avian flu on New Mexico dairy farm; probe finds cats positive\u201d [Center for Infectious Disease Reseach and Policy]. \u201cFollowing yesterday\u2019s announcement of the first human H5N1 infection linked to dairy cow exposure, the Texas Department of State Health Services issued a health alert that urged health providers to be vigilant for people with symptoms from H5N1, especially those who have had contact with potentially infected animals. It also noted that in March, investigators collected samples from several animals in Texas and Kansas. Wild birds, cats, and dairy cows were tested because they showed illness signs. \u2018Further testing of these samples indicated the presence of avian influenza A(H5N1),\u2019 the TDSHS said. A press officer from the TDSHS confirmed in an e-mail that sick cats tested positive for the virus. The Texas Animal Health Commission said in an e-mail that it has received lab confirmation of HPAI for three cats. Wild birds on affected farms had earlier tested positive for H5N1, and evidence is growing that the virus may be spreading cow to cow. Investigations are still underway to sort out how the virus is spreading on farms, which includes identifying the extent of virus circulation in other animals or wildlife. Cats are among the mammals previously known be contract H5N1, with infections reported in the United States, Poland, and South Korea.\u201d \u2022 Three cats, not, as rumor has it 50 (more on cats from Flu Trackers). What interests me is the easy spread between species. I haven\u2019t seen anybody say this, so take it with a truckload of salts \u2014 plus, you know my priors \u2014 but that makes me think of airborne spread. Readers, links? <\/p>\n
\u201cWhat the CDC is doing to monitor and protect against bird flu\u201d (interview) [Mandy Cohen, NPR]. \u201cOne is obviously working very closely to make sure we\u2019re understanding the extent of the spread, how many cattle and farm[s] are involved, and then obviously looking for any humans that are in contact with cattle or sick birds, and testing folks that have symptoms, and making sure that we\u2019re understanding if it has spread to other folks. So far, there\u2019s only been one case in Texas. The person had very mild symptoms[1]. They\u2019re recovering well. But we want to make sure, again, that we are testing folks who may have been in contact[2].\u201d So, the paradigm that brought about mass infection with Covid is still firmly in place: [1] asymptomatic transmission is not important, and [2] \u201ccontact,\u201d a vague term that isn\u2019t really a mode of transmission, like fomites, but most definitely is not airborne. Both those claims may be true. Are we sure that they are? On testing: \u201cSo we\u2019re trying to talk folks [yech] through it and build trust, and folks have really been receptive [vibes]. We\u2019ve been particularly working with a lot of the veterinarians[3] that are part of the farms that have been impacted. So far, all working well together.\u201d [3] I would want to know more about the incentives (and the ideological and ontological commitments) of these veterinarians. To a question on vaccines: \u201c[T]he good news is the United States has been preparing for avian flu outbreaks for more than 20 years. We\u2019ve invested in our ability to test for this, to prevent it and to treat it. And we know that the strain we\u2019re seeing right now is the same strain we have seen before. And we believe from all of our laboratory testing that our test will pick this up. Our treatment, which is Tamiflu, which we have both doses in stockpile and around the country, works. And we even have vaccine candidates that are ready to go. So it\u2019s very different than what we experienced, for example, at the beginning of COVID, when we\u2019re seeing a brand new novel virus where we didn\u2019t have tests, we didn\u2019t have treatment and we didn\u2019t have vaccine.\u201d Note that Tamiflu is treatment, not vaccination, so Mandy dodged the question. Her interlocutor asks about vaccines again. Mandy answers: \u201cWe have never seen a transmission from a human-to-human. That is something we are watching for very closely. And so there may be trigger points where we would move to thinking about scaling up vaccine[4]. But remember, there\u2019s always a tradeoff there \u2013 if we move to manufacturing one type of vaccine, it may be at the expense of being able to manufacture that vaccine for the seasonal flu. Again, something that also impacts us.\u201d After Operation Warp Speed and three years of the adults in the room, we\u2019ve got capacity problems?!? More: \u201cSo, we have the ability to scale up if we need to.\u201d She just said we don\u2019t.\u201d More: \u201cAnd again, we\u2019ve already started down that process and we\u2019ll keep monitoring to see if we need to trigger and do that.\u201d You don\u2019t \u201cstart down\u201d a \u201cprocess\u201d; you start down a \u201croad\u201d or a \u201cpath.\u201d A little harm to the linguistic centers acquired during Mandy\u2019s mysterious two-week silence over the New Year? Also [4] really? Starting from scratch? Really? Efficacy? Safety? Breakthrough infections? Really? In contrast to Mandy\u2019s blithe assurance\u2013<\/p>\n
\u201cWhy a leading bird flu expert isn\u2019t convinced that the risk H5N1 poses to people has declined\u201d (interview) [Ron Fouchier, STAT]. <\/p>\n
[FOUCHIER:] We have never seen this scale of infections in mammals, and in such diversity of mammals. We have now seen more than 40 species of mammals infected during the last outbreaks, which is unprecedented. We know that flu is unpredictable. But we also know that adaptation of virus to mammals is not a good thing.<\/p>\n
And:<\/p>\n
[FOUCHIER:] [I]f there are infections in cows, we can offer personal protective equipment to the milkers and we can offer antiviral drugs to people who start to develop symptoms or conjunctivitis. But when tens of thousands of seals wash up on your shore, what are you going to do? And how are you going to prevent onward spread?<\/p>\n
And these are the animals that we see. What about the animals that we don\u2019t see so easily, like rats or mice? What\u2019s happening? The large species we now know get infected easily. But the small species, we don\u2019t even know.<\/p>\n
And so the high presence in nature, and the large number of infections I find concerning, despite the fact that we think current zoonotic risk is low. And that\u2019s because these viruses are changing. And we have no experience [of how H5 behaves] in all these species. We can\u2019t predict what\u2019s going to happen.<\/p>\n
Well worth a read, and some useful speculation on epidemiology as well; a useful antidote to Mandy\u2019s soothing nostrums.<\/p>\n
\u201cCurrent U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans\u201d [CDC]. Handy diagram of transmission:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/flu.png\")
<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] Scope is \u201cbackyard poultry,\u201d not an industrial operation;<\/p>\n
[2] Droplet dogma;<\/p>\n
[3] Note that according to CDC, the virus does not spread as an aerosol of the chicken breathes or squawks. (It looks to me like CDC \u201cported\u201d the model of spreading pathogens from shaking bedsheets in hospitals to poultry.) Of course, CDC may be right! But they have been horribly, grievously wrong using exactly this paradigm before.<\/p>\n
Sequelae: Covid<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts<\/p>\n
LEGEND<\/p>\n
1) \u2605 for charts new today; all others are not updated.<\/p>\n
2) For a full-size\/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and \u201copen image in new tab.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTES<\/p>\n
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at the level of previous Trump peaks. Not a great victory. Note also the area \u201cunder the curve,\u201d besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.<\/p>\n
[2] (Biobot) Backward revisions, I hate them.<\/p>\n
[3] (CDC Variants) As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.\u201d \u201cBiweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.\u201d Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they\u2019re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.<\/p>\n
[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game\u2026 <\/p>\n
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Looks like a very gradual leveling off to a non-zero baseline, to me.<\/p>\n
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. \u201cMaps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET\u2020\u201d. <\/p>\n
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.<\/p>\n
[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.<\/p>\n
[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit in the rear view mirror.<\/p>\n
[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 dominates utterly.<\/p>\n
Stats Watch<\/p>\n
Employment Situation: \u201cUnited States Unemployment Rate\u201d [Trading Economics]. \u201cThe unemployment rate in the United States dipped to 3.8% in March 2024 from the previous month\u2019s two-year high of 3.9% and surprising market expectations, which had forecasted the rate to remain unchanged. The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 29,000 to 6.4 million, while employment levels saw a significant surge, rising by 498,000 to reach 161.5 million. Additionally, the labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% from a near one-year low of 62.5% in the preceding periods, and the employment-population ratio climbed to 60.3% from 60.1%. Despite recent policy tightening measures by the Federal Reserve, the unemployment rate has remained within a narrow range of 3.7% to 3.9% since August 2023, suggesting the labor market remains strong.\u201d <\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Finance: \u201cA Lego Model of Financial Capitalism\u201d [ASOMOCO]. \u201cThis type of exchange, in which we exchange money for promises-for-future-money, is called financial exchange, and the financial markets are where it happens.\u201d Final paragraph: \u201cMix it all up! Perhaps that investment bank can take the other side of that credit default swap, and place it \u2013 alongside other CDS contracts \u2013 into a new offshore vehicle. Now they can sell the tranches of that new SYNTHETIC CDO! This is highly recommended if you wish to trigger a global financial crisis.\u201d \u2022 I reall wanted more Lego, and the post is really above my paygrade. But the last paragraph gives me some confidence. Readers?<\/p>\n
Tech: \u201cInside Big Tech\u2019s underground race to buy AI training data\u201d [Reuters]. \u201cTech giants like Google (GOOGL.O), opens new tab, Meta (META.O), opens new tab and Microsoft-backed (MSFT.O), opens new tab OpenAI initially used reams of data scraped from the internet for free [stolen] to train generative AI models like ChatGPT that can mimic human creativity. They have said that doing so is both legal and ethical, though they face lawsuits from a string of copyright holders over the practice\u2026. Reuters spoke to more than 30 people with knowledge of AI data deals, including current and former executives at companies involved, lawyers and consultants, to provide the first in-depth exploration of this fledgling market \u2013 detailing the types of content being bought, the prices materializing, plus emerging concerns about the risk of personal data making its way into AI models without people\u2019s knowledge or explicit consent.\u201d \u2022 What risk? Why not just legalize it?<\/p>\n
Tech: \u201cMicrosoft blamed for \u201ca cascade of security failures\u201d in Exchange breach report\u201d [Ars Technica]. \u201cA federal Cyber Safety Review Board has issued its report on what led to last summer\u2019s capture of hundreds of thousands of emails by Chinese hackers from cloud customers, including federal agencies. It cites \u201ca cascade of security failures at Microsoft\u201d and finds that \u201cMicrosoft\u2019s security culture was inadequate\u201d and needs to adjust to a \u2018new normal\u2019 of cloud provider targeting\u2026. \u2018Throughout this review, the board identified a series of Microsoft operational and strategic decisions that collectively points to a corporate culture that deprioritized both enterprise security investments and rigorous risk management,\u2019 the report reads.\u201d \u2022 What is it with these Seattle firms\u2026..<\/p>\n
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Today\u2019s Fear & Greed Index: 61 Greed (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 69 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Apr 5 at 1:38:51 PM ET.<\/p>\n
Book Nook<\/p>\n
\u201cIs the Bible a Great Book?\u201d [Great Books Journal]. \u201cIn Can We Trust the Gospels, Peter J. Williams makes his case for the reliability of the Gospels\u2026 [T]he question is not so much whether the authors [of the Gospels] had an agenda but whether they reported accurately or not. In his opinion, there are many reasons to believe that the Gospels are accurate.\u201d For example: \u201cThe testimony of women did not have much credibility in the ancient world\u2026. The most important miracle in the Gospels is the resurrection of Jesus Christ. To maximize the credibility of this claim, an author who was fabricating a document would certainly not have opted to make women the first to find an empty tomb and to witness the risen Jesus. Yet that is precisely what the Gospel accounts tell us. Of course, this does not and cannot ever prove the resurrection, but it does show that the authors of the Gospel included a detail that was very likely to make their case seem far weaker than if men had discovered the empty tomb and were the first to interact with the risen Jesus. For example, it would have been easy to claim that Peter, the designated leader of the Church, was the first to bear witness to these momentous events. But the apostles had to wait for some time before witnessing this miracle. They were not chosen to be the first witnesses. Mary Magdalene, who was not only a woman but known to be a former sinner, has that place of honor in the Gospels.\u201d<\/p>\n
Class Warfare<\/p>\n
\u201cMacKenzie Scott\u2019s game-changing philanthropy still mystifies nonprofits: \u2018Her gifts are super generous, but unfortunately, they don\u2019t provide long term sustainability’\u201d [Fortune]. \u201cOrganizations working on \u2018race and ethnicity\u2019 and \u2018youth development\u2019 were the two largest categories according to the database of gifts on her Yield Giving website. Generally, Scott has given the most grants to organizations in the U.S. South, while in the latest round, California and New York were the states with the largest number of recipient nonprofits.\u201d \u2022 In other words, anything to create verticals that divide the working class, the historic mission of NGOs.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne-third of ride-share drivers have had a crash on the job, survey finds\u201d (press release) [University of Chicago]. \u201cWhile all drivers are at higher risk of a crash when driving while distracted or tired, ride-share drivers are uniquely susceptible to these conditions, the researchers said. They use their cellphones to get information about new passengers, for example, and they are often driving as a second job, which makes them more likely to be tired on the road. But a bigger distraction for these drivers may be their customers, said coauthor Lee Friedman, a research professor in the School of Public Health. \u2018You\u2019ve got a stranger entering your vehicle. They may be unruly. They may be drunk,\u2019 he said. Not only can something go wrong \u2014 the driver can crash or the passenger might get sick vomit in the backseat \u2014 but the driver likely is driving their personal car. This and other factors may add even more stress and distraction while driving.’\u201d \u2022 Travis, and the venture capital community: Take a bow!<\/p>\n
News of the Wired<\/p>\n
A propos of H5N1:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\u201cMaking crochet cacti\u201d [Julia Evans]. \u201cI\u2019ve been modifying all of the patterns I make in a somewhat chaotic way, often just because I made a mistake somewhere along the way and then decide to move forward and change the pattern to adjust for the mistake instead of undoing my work.\u201d \u2022 Hmm. Is this a typical procedure?<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Sound of Knitting\u201d [Kottke.org]. \u201cIn addition to featuring knitting-friendly music, the video includes a tour of the Norwegian municipality of Selbu, famous for its gorgeous mittens, as well as a virtual class on how to knit those mittens. It all seems lovely, although I confess I was slightly disappointed that \u2018the sound of knitting\u2019 wasn\u2019t an ASMR video of needles clicking, although I\u2019m sure that\u2019s out there, too. I mean, I know it is because I\u2019ve seen it. Plus, as a recent NY Times story outlined, handwork is good for the brain.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:<\/p>\n
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TH writes: \u201cYou may have noticed that the last few photos that I have sent were from my early January morning at the Sherman Library and Gardens in Corona Del Mar (a division of Newport Beach), California. I\u2019m always surprised at the large variety of flowers blooming in January. Yes, even though I\u2019m a native of the state and should be used to it. I didn\u2019t see any identification signs on most of the plants there, but I think this one is Cowslip.\u201d Readers? (Wow, that blue!)<\/p>\n
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn\u2019t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I\u2019m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for five or ten days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals<\/p>\n
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:<\/p>\n
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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!<\/p>\n
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