Yves here. The hand-wringing about falling fertility is dishonest on many levels. No one wants to admit that turning babies into human beings (a project that does not always take) entails a lot of drudgery and dealing with bodily fluids. Women with the ability to foist the work onto others regularly do, as the pervasive use of wet nurses, nannies, and governesses among English and European aristocrats attests. Modern women, who seldom have spouse who will help all that much with what historically have been maternal duties, reduce their child-rearing labor by having few children by historical standard or none at all.<\/p>\n
Those who visit societies organized along traditional lines, like Bali, use a different approach, of extended families living in compounds, and children being substantially cared for by older adults and siblings of the parents. Aside from greatly reducing paternal stress levels compared to the nuclear family structure, IMHO a big advantage is exposing the growing child to many more adults, which helps them develop better interpersonal skills.<\/p>\n
And that is before getting to the fact that the world very much needs to reduce population levels, above all in high income, high resource consuming countries. Demanding women breed more babies is the laziest and most destructive way to approach this issue. Japan has show that it is possible to preserve high living standards with a shrinking and aging population. But Japan also has very low inequality and high social cohesion.<\/p>\n
Of course, if the Strait of Hormuz standoff continues, we\u2019ll get big and often disorderly falls in population regardless.<\/p>\n
By Julie Hollar, FAIR\u2019s senior analyst and managing editor. Originally published at Common Dreams<\/p>\n
If you haven\u2019t heard the argument that civilization is about to collapse because women aren\u2019t having enough babies, you haven\u2019t been consuming much media.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Birth-Rate Crisis Isn\u2019t as Bad as You\u2019ve Heard\u2014It\u2019s Worse,\u201d announced The Atlantic (6\/30\/25). Business Insider (8\/21\/25) ran a piece titled \u201cAmerica\u2019s Great People Shortage,\u201d which opened, \u201cAmerica is about to tumble off the edge of a massive demographic cliff.\u201d And NPR\u2019s Brian Mann warned on PBS (4\/10\/26) that, as a result of the birth rate decline, \u201cmany people say\u201d that the US soon \u201cwill be unrecognizable.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s repeatedly in the news in part because it\u2019s a priority of the \u201cpronatalist\u201d right, which has prominent backers in the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance has called the US birth rate decline a \u201ccivilizational crisis.\u201d He said people with children should have \u201cmore power\u201d at the polls, and \u201cmore of an ability to speak your voice in our democratic republic\u201d than those without.<\/p>\n
Elon Musk, who regularly posts on the subject and has fathered at least 14 children, has claimed that \u201cpopulation collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming.\u201d \u201cThere will be no West if this continues,\u201d he said. And President Donald Trump has called for a new \u201cbaby boom.\u201d<\/p>\n
The story generally goes like this: Fewer babies being born in the US leads to fewer working-age adults relative to retired adults, which means\u2014as The Atlantic piece put it\u2014\u201chigher taxes, higher debt, or later retirement\u2014or all three.\u201d<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s a lot more to the story, and ignoring it masks the white nationalism, regressive gender ideals, and economic inequality driving the narrative.<\/p>\n
Hidden Xenophobia<\/p>\n
The numbers might look striking on the surface: As news reports pointed out (e.g., CNN, 4\/9\/26), the number of births and the fertility rate (births per 1,000 women) in the US have dropped to record lows. Both decreased by 1% from 2024 to 2025; the fertility rate has fallen by about 20% over the past 20 years.<\/p>\n
In terms of births per woman, that\u2019s about 1.6\u2014well below the \u201creplacement\u201d rate of 2.1, which would be required to maintain a population without migration.<\/p>\n
But that last detail is key. If you believe we need a certain number of working-age adults to support an aging population of retirees, there are\u2014or at least were, until Trump\u2019s brutal immigration regime\u2014millions of people willing and eager to come to this country and help make up that deficit. Even with the declining birth rate, the US population grew by more in 2023-24 than it did in 2003-04.<\/p>\n
Even so, immigration was conspicuously missing from too much of the birth rate coverage. For instance, in a long piece on Trump contemplating a \u201cbaby bonus,\u201d CBS (4\/25\/25) reported:<\/p>\n
A declining birth rate can spell long-term economic problems, including a shrinking labor force that\u2019s financially strapped to pay for medical services and retirement benefits for an aging population.<\/p>\n
It managed to go in depth on why the birth rate might be declining, what a baby bonus might look like, how much it would cost, and whether it could work. But it never mentioned immigration policy.<\/p>\n
On CNN (4\/18\/26), anchor Michael Smerconish explored the falling birth rate with economist Melissa Kearney, who told him:<\/p>\n
We\u2019re now looking at, you know, being a society that\u2019s aging, with fewer young people going to school, entering the workforce. This poses demographic headwinds for our economic growth and dynamism going forward.<\/p>\n
They discussed the \u201cthreat posed in terms of the sustainability of Social Security\u201d and ways to address the problem, but neither ever raised the impact of immigration.<\/p>\n
When news outlets ignore that obvious facet of the issue, they hide the xenophobic assumptions underlying the claims of \u201ccrisis.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2018To Save Civilization, Reject Feminism\u2019<\/p>\n
And then there\u2019s the misogyny. Right-wing media are quick to blame women for this impending \u201ccrisis.\u201d<\/p>\n
A New York Post column (9\/9\/25) by Rikki Schlott, for instance, drummed up the \u201cfear of a baby bust,\u201d blaming it in particular on Gen Z (which is having fewer kids than previous generations at the same age) lacking \u201cpositive, empowering messaging that teaches you can prioritize marriage, family, and children while also valuing independence, career, and financial stability\u201d:<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t need a spouse\u201d (or, for that matter, children) feminism has told left-leaning young women that pretty much everything else is more important than family.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a very sad development.<\/p>\n
Columnist Victor Joecks, syndicated from the Las Vegas Review-Journal (8\/2\/25; reposted in Daily Signal, 8\/10\/25), took things even further in a piece headlined \u201cTo Save Civilization, Reject Feminism and Honor Mother.\u201d He opened by declaring, \u201cThe triumph of modern feminism has put society on the path to demographic collapse.\u201d<\/p>\n
Joecks further opined:<\/p>\n
Society applauds women for becoming executives, not moms with kids. Reports on the mythical [sic] gender pay gap describe motherhood with the word \u201cpenalty.\u201d\u2026 Modern feminism has left many women lonely and depressed. It has put the globe into a demographic downward spiral that\u2019s going to be hard to reverse.<\/p>\n
\u2018National Motherhood Medal\u2019<\/p>\n
Women-blaming in right-wing media is no surprise, particularly given the surge of pronatalism on the right. But centrist media coverage of that movement also sometimes boosts it.<\/p>\n
The New York Times (4\/21\/25) ran an article on the pronatalist groups pushing the Trump administration on increasing birth rates, noting that \u201cadvocates expressed confidence that fertility issues will become a prominent piece of the agenda.\u201d Among their ideas: a \u201cNational Motherhood Medal\u201d awarded to women with six or more children, and tax credits to married\u2014but not unmarried\u2014couples with children that increase with successive children.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s instructive to recall, as Vogue (5\/3\/25) does, that fertility was likewise central to the Nazis, who also offered medalsto (Aryan) women who bore many children.<\/p>\n
While the misogyny embedded in the pronatalist movement generally comes through loud and clear in the Times article, the paper insisted on normalizing it, calling the coalition \u201cbroad and diverse,\u201d including both \u201cChristian conservatives\u201d who see a \u201ccultural crisis\u201d in need of more marriage and gender inequality, as well as those who \u201care interested in exploring a variety of methods, including new reproductive technologies, to reach their goal of more babies.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2018Collapse of Our Civilization\u2019<\/p>\n
The New York Times repeated the economic collapse narrative in its description of the pronatalist movement\u2019s<\/p>\n
warning of a future in which a smaller work force cannot support an aging population and the social safety net. If the birth rate is not turned around, they fear, the country\u2019s economy could collapse and, ultimately, human civilization could be at risk.<\/p>\n
By making no effort to analyze that narrative, the Times lent it legitimacy.<\/p>\n
Similarly, in a USA Today piece (3\/10\/26) on whether Trump\u2019s effort to be known as the \u201cfertilization president\u201d was sparking a baby boom (\u201cthat question is complicated,\u201d the paper concluded), reporter Madeline Mitchell quoted a pronatalist podcaster saying that the declining birth rate \u201cis going to lead to the collapse of our civilization.\u201d<\/p>\n
That piece was part of a package that interviewed many women of varying ages to understand why they were or were not having children; those pieces included perspectives about the financial and existential struggles facing women who want to have children and feel they can\u2019t afford to, or don\u2019t feel the world is stable enough to bring children into.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s an important perspective, and interviewing women on this subject is something all outlets should be doing. But without addressing the question of whether a falling birth rate will, in fact, bring about imminent civilizational collapse, as the widely disseminated right-wing narrative claims, the framing pits women\u2019s feelings and choices against the survival of civilization\u2014hardly a fair contest.<\/p>\n
Since birth rate is not a significant problem for the US in the foreseeable future unless you prevent immigration, the idea repeated in these pieces that \u201ccivilization\u201d will collapse from a falling birth rate actually means \u201cwhite civilization.\u201d Pronatalists, you see, tend to share a lot in common with Christian white nationalists.<\/p>\n
\u2018The Problem Is Teens\u2019<\/p>\n
Another New York Times article (2\/27\/26) headlined \u201cThe Birthrate Is Plunging. Why Some Say That\u2019s a Good Thing,\u201d pointed out that the drop in the US is mostly among teens and women in their early 20s, and reminded readers that<\/p>\n
30 years ago, the growing number of teenage and single mothers was seen as a societal crisis, with poor economic and health outcomes for mother and baby. The most vociferous critics called these women \u201cwelfare queens\u201d and said they were draining public coffers.<\/p>\n
It is indeed whiplash-inducing to hear today\u2019s right-wing mouthpieces, like Fox News\u2019 senior medical analyst Marc Seigel (4\/10\/26; Media Matters, 4\/10\/26), saying:<\/p>\n
The problem is teens and young adults. From ages 15-19, the fertility rate is down 7%, and it\u2019s down 70% over the last two decades, meaning we\u2019re telling people that are young not to have babies, to wait until they\u2019re in a more stable life situation.<\/p>\n
In any case, despite its better gender framing, the Times still pushed the \u201cnot enough workers\u201d economic narrative\u2014and downplayed the administration\u2019s xenophobia with euphemism:<\/p>\n
If the birthrate drops too far for too long, it could eventually present problems, as the country needs workers to support an aging population. The population can grow through immigration too, but that issue has become politically sensitive, with numbers falling sharply under the Trump administration.<\/p>\n
Vanishing Productivity<\/p>\n
The economic doomsday argument being spread applies both in the US and globally. Declining fertility isn\u2019t just happening in the US\u2014it\u2019s a worldwide phenomenon. In fact, the US\u2019 \u201cdemographic cliff\u201d is much less dramatic than in many countries. China, for instance, has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, and that nation\u2019s population is already beginning to shrink.<\/p>\n
While some might think this slowdown (and even potential reversal, many decades from now) in global human population growth could be a positive development, there are plenty of media outlets looking to fearmonger about it. \u201cThe demographic cliff will end us, unless we act quickly,\u201d declared Forbes\u2019 Alexander Puutio (6\/9\/25).<\/p>\n
The Atlantic\u2019s Marc Novicoff (6\/30\/25) presaged that within a few decades \u201crich countries will all have become like Japan, stagnant and aging.\u201d After arguing that United Nations population growth projections are overly optimistic, he addressed those who remain skeptical of doomsday warnings:<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re not sure why this is all so alarming, consider Japan, the canonical example of the threat that low fertility poses to a country\u2019s economic prospects. At its peak in 1994, the Japanese economy made up 18% of world GDP, but eventually, the country\u2019s demographics caught up with it. Now Japan\u2019s median age is 50 years old, and the country\u2019s GDP makes up just 4% of the global economy. Measured per hours worked, Japan\u2019s economic growth has always been strong, but at some point, you just don\u2019t have enough workers.<\/p>\n
Who cares what percentage of world GDP a country produces? If you\u2019re a resident of Japan, what you care about is your quality of life. As Novicoff acknowledges, Japan\u2019s productivity hasn\u2019t weakened. And if you look at the human development index, which measures gross national income per capita, years of schooling, and life expectancy, Japan continues to improve over time. So it\u2019s entirely unclear on what basis he makes his claim that Japan doesn\u2019t \u201chave enough workers.\u201d<\/p>\n
But it is clear what readers are being primed for: Governments and companies cutting retirement benefits. As The Atlantic piece concludes:<\/p>\n
If the birth rate continues to drop around the world at its current pace, economic growth and workers\u2019 retirement prospects will go the way of those projections: adjusting every few years to a smaller, sadder, poorer future.<\/p>\n
Productivity Swamps Demographics<\/p>\n
That neoliberal push for austerity is the third ideological agenda that lurks behind many of these population crisis stories. Even those news outlets that acknowledged the role of immigration in a country\u2019s economy often took it as further evidence that the economic outlook is bleak. NPR (4\/9\/26), for instance, told its audience that<\/p>\n
many demographers and economists see the apparent shift toward smaller families and fewer children as a significant concern for the nation and its labor force, especially as immigration into the US has also plunged under the Trump administration.<\/p>\n
What such economic warnings hide is that, just as population size isn\u2019t solely dependent on the native fertility rate, economic growth isn\u2019t solely dependent on the working-age population.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s true that increasing life expectancies mean that the ratio of the US working-age population to the retired population is slowly decreasing, even with a growing population. That can put pressure on things like Social Security, which operates like a social insurance program in which taxes from current workers go into a fund for current retirees. A shrinking, aging population does require some policy adjustments. But it doesn\u2019t mean the sky is falling. Progressive economist Dean Baker (Beat the Press, 1\/11\/19) explains:<\/p>\n
Even pulling out the impact of immigrants, the reality is that we have been seeing a fall in the ratio of workers to retirees pretty much forever. Life expectancies have been rising as people have better living standards and better healthcare. (Recent years have been an exception, where life expectancies have stagnated.) In 1950 there were 7.2 people between the ages of 20 and 65 for every person over the age of 65. This ratio now stands at just 3.6 to 1.
Over this 70-year period, we have seen huge increases in living standards for both workers and retirees. The key has been the growth in productivity, which allows workers to produce much more in each hour of work. (We also have a much higher rate of employment among workers between the ages of 20 and 65, as tens of millions of women have entered the labor force.) The impact of productivity growth swamps the impact of demographics.<\/p>\n
Not Enough Babies? Too Many billionaires<\/p>\n
The US has experienced an average of over 2% annual productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector since World War II, and there\u2019s no reason to expect that to end. The gradually shifting worker-retiree ratio does start to become a bigger problem if productivity gains are siphoned off to only accrue to the rich. Which, as it turns out, they increasinglydo.<\/p>\n
Look at Social Security, which is frequently pointed to as being in peril because of the aging population and decreasing birth rate. An op-ed in USA Today (8\/21\/25), advocating for \u201ckilling\u201d Social Security, claimed that, \u201cdue to a collapse of the American birth rate, the program is expected to be unable to pay the full promised benefits to retirees within the decade.\u201d<\/p>\n
An CNBC article (5\/30\/25) told readers that \u201cfewer births mean fewer future workers to support programs like Social Security and Medicare, which rely on a healthy worker-to-retiree ratio.\u201d (That idea was supported with a quote from the director of the \u201cGet Married Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies\u201d\u2014a right-wing think tank that recently launched a \u201cPronatalism Initiative.\u201d)<\/p>\n
But none other than the Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration, Karen Glenn, testified to Congress (3\/25\/26) that birth rate has nothing to do with impending shortfalls in the program. Instead, one of the biggest factors imperiling Social Security is the problem of greater-than-expected income inequality.<\/p>\n
Since 1980, when income inequality began to increase sharply, the amount of wage income that exceeds the cap for Social Security tax has doubled. The vast majority of us\u2014those who make up to $184,500 a year\u2014pay Social Security tax on all of our income; those who make more pay nothing above that cap. Simply removing the cap would eliminatethree-quarters of the Social Security fund\u2019s long-term projected shortfall.<\/p>\n
Economic Value Judgments<\/p>\n
And, of course, there are all the other ways the rich avoid paying their fair share in our economy, whether it\u2019s through low capital gains rates, or simply through the fancy accounting that lets the super rich\u2014including those who own the news outlets reporting on such things\u2014pay next to nothing in federal taxes. Jeff Bezos, for instance, owner of The Washington Post, paid an effective income tax rate of under 1% on the over $4 billion he amassed from 2014-18 (ProPublica, 6\/8\/21).<\/p>\n
So when The New York Times (3\/26\/26) tells you in its reporting on US population change that \u201cthe country needs a population of young workers and taxpayers large enough to finance infrastructure like schools, hospitals, and healthcare for older residents,\u201d understand that they\u2019re making a value judgement about taxation. The more objective statement would be that the country needs an economic output large enough to finance these things, which is certainly true.<\/p>\n
There are important policy conversations to be had about supporting people in having the size family they want to have. Many Americans have fewer children than they want because of financial limitations\u2014like lack of affordable childcare or housing\u2014or concerns about the state of the world or the environment. News outlets can and should be addressing these issues.<\/p>\n
But reporting that covers birth rate decline without the critical contexts of immigration policy, gender norms, and economic inequality masks the regressive ideologies behind the purported solutions.<\/p>\n
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