[This Iran war post is even thinner than usual at launch due to still being a bit addled from travel. Please come back at 7:30 AM EDT or refresh your browsers then for a final version]<\/p>\n
After various press leaks suggesting that Trump viewed more kinetic attacks on Iran as too risky and thought keeping the blockade on as effective, and even ones that depicted the Administration as considering declaring victory and exiting, the latest reading of the Trump fever chart is that he is back to favoring more pounding. It seems that the Iran threat to take on the blockade, as in attack the US Navy even at its present remove from Iran, has not gotten the attention it warrants. More on that soon.<\/p>\n
The latest Trump sighting per the BBC in Oil price hits highest since 2022 after report Trump to be briefed on new Iran options:<\/p>\n
Oil prices jumped to their highest since 2022 after a report that the US military is set to brief President Donald Trump on new plans for potential action in the Iran war.<\/p>\n
US Central Command has prepared a plan for a wave of \u201cshort and powerful\u201d strikes on Iran to try to break the deadlock in negotiations with Tehran, news site Axios reported. The BBC has contacted US Central Command and the White House for comment.<\/p>\n
Brent crude rose by almost 7% to more than $126 (\u00a394) a barrel at one point, the highest since Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine\u2026<\/p>\n
After reaching $126.31 a barrel at one point in Asian trade, the price of Brent crude fell back to around $116 in European trade\u2026<\/p>\n
In the UK, petrol currently costs an average of 157p a litre, according to motoring group RAC, which is 24p higher than before the start of the war. Diesel is at nearly 189p a litre, up 46p compared with its pre-war price.<\/p>\n
But the potential impact is wider than just fuel prices. The UK government has warned people could face higher energy, food and flight ticket prices as a result of the war.<\/p>\n
An aside: the fact that the UK officialdom and its press is now citing the broader costs of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is significant.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg called out the continuing US-Iran staredown in its headline: US and Iran Stuck in Standoff as Oil Prices Soar to Wartime High<\/p>\n
- \n
- The US and Iran showed little sign of breaking their impasse and agreeing to another round of peace talks, with President Donald Trump saying his navy\u2019s blockade is working.<\/li>\n
- US military commanders are set to brief Trump on new plans for Iran, including a plan for a short wave of strikes on Iran to break the negotiating deadlock.<\/li>\n
- Trump told Axios the blockade of Iran\u2019s ports is \u201csomewhat more effective than the bombing\u201d and \u201cchoking\u201d the country by restricting its oil exports\u2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Brent oil rose to a wartime high as traders factor in an even longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a potential breakdown of the US and Iran\u2019s shaky ceasefire, which has been in place since around April 7. Brent surged as much as 7.1% to more than $126 a barrel on Thursday, before paring gains to $121.40.<\/p>\n
Mind you, both stories rely on the underlying Axios account. And the CENTCOM briefing must have been previously scheduled since it requires some analysis.1 But the flip side is that Professor Mohammed Marandi has been saying that Iran expects another US attack, and it needs to come pretty soon, given that heat levels in the Gulf are about to rise dramatically, making any ground operation extremely difficult.2<\/p>\n
A story in Reuters indicates that at a minimum, there are divisions in the Administration on what to do:<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nFrom the article:<\/p>\n
U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war that \u200bhas killed thousands and become a political liability for the White House, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter said.<\/p>\n
The intelligence community is analyzing \u200cthe question along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year, according to the sources.<\/p>\n
While no decision has been made \u2013 and Trump could easily ramp back up military operations \u2013 a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even as it could \u200bleave behind an emboldened Iran that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten U.S. allies in the region\u2026.<\/p>\n
It is not clear when the intelligence community would complete its work, but it has previously analyzed the likely reaction of \u2060Iran\u2019s leaders to a U.S. declaration of victory.<\/p>\n
In the days following the initial bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies assessed that if Trump were to declare victory and the U.S. drew down its \u200bforces in the region, Iran would likely view it as a win, one of the sources said.<\/p>\n
If Trump instead said the U.S. had won but maintained a heavy troop presence, Iran would likely see \u200bit as a negotiating tactic, but not one that would necessarily lead to the end of the war, the source said.<\/p>\n
\u201cCIA is not familiar with the intelligence community\u2019s reported assessment,\u201d Liz Lyons, director of the agency\u2019s office of public affairs, said in a statement after the publication of this story. The CIA declined to answer Reuters\u2019 specific questions about its current work on Iran.<\/p>\n
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.<\/p>\n
The reason for quoting this piece at some length is the CIA denial, as opposed to mere refusal to comment. CIA Chief John Ratcliffe is a hard-core Israel backer and as recently as mid-April, went to Jerusalem to talk with Netanyahu. One can infer that the Director of National Intelligence, as in Tulsi Gabbard\u2019s office, is having to cut the CIA out of consideration of any non-escalatory options. Mind you, I doubt that will succeed:<\/p>\n
On Monday Marco Rubio said that we cannot allow Iran to have control over the strait of Hormuz, picking and choosing who enters and what currency they use.<\/p>\n
There is a very important reason why the administration feels this way: because it would be the greatest military defeat in\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) April 29, 2026<\/p>\n
But the attempt to make a case to Trump that walking away is less terrible than he might believe shows that some in the Beltway recognize the real stakes, that the US needs to eat a lot of crow to escape even worse outcomes <\/p>\n
Back briefly to what still seems to be Trump\u2019s preferred option, even if not strongly so, of keeping the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on and hoping Iran will cry uncle rather than suffer damage to its oil wells as its storage fills up.<\/p>\n
That is silly. As we pointed out, Iran exported pretty much nada in 2019 and 2020 yet seems to have suffered no lasting infrastructure harm. Bloomberg helpfully showed that that wasn\u2019t even the first time:<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nIran appears to have figured out how to keep enough pressure in old wells in a shutdown to prevent meaningful damage to its oil fields. <\/p>\n
And as we described long-form yesterday, Iran has more export routes now than then, including by rail to China, through six corridors just opened up by Pakistan, and via the Capsian Sea to Russia.3<\/p>\n
However, the fact that Iran can endure the US blockade does not mean it is advantageous to Iran to sit back and (again) take it. <\/p>\n
After reports that Trump rejected Iran\u2019s preconditions for negotiations & resuming the naval blockade on Iran, reports are coming in that Iran is examining ‘non-negotiated options’ to lift the naval blockade. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) April 29, 2026<\/p>\n
Strategic reasons for Iran to take action include:<\/p>\n
1. Iran taking on the US Navy, ideally sooner rather than later, could throw a monkey wrench in whatever plans CENTCOM is cooking up for an attack <\/p>\n
2. If the winning game is tit for tat, merely refusing to negotiate might not be an adequate punishment for breaking the ceasefire deal,4 particularly in light of US actions:<\/p>\n
The US regime hijacked a ship carrying medical equipment including dialysis supplies and is still holding 22 crew members hostage <\/p>\n
\u2014 Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) April 29, 2026<\/p>\n
3. If we believe that Iran (as it has before) can endure a no-sea-trade situation, that implies that the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz could persist until the economy of the US suffers so much damage that it becomes untenable for the Administration to persist5 (but as a discussion below between Douglas Macgregor and Daniel Davis suggests, Trump no longer cares about public opinion, otherwise he\u2019d be trying harder to find an off ramp). That could take a while, particularly given how much of Congress is captured by the Israel lobby. The impact of the present duration is expected to produce starvation in some poor countries. The human cost is set to rise rapidly the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. <\/p>\n
Given that the Shia believe in defending underdogs and innocents, one has to think at least some Iranians are not happy about Iran being a party to mass hunger, even if they are not the main driver. One can similarly think from a more cynical power perspective that it behooves Iran to show as much cognition as possible of the humanitarian crisis underway and that it is doing what it can to mitigate that while fighting an existential fight (this theme has been absent in Iran\u2019s otherwise extremely skilled messaging).<\/p>\n
Again cynically, Iran may want to prevent a global economic collapse, which is what a long closure of the Strait of Hormuz will produce, out of self interest.<\/p>\n
While I am typically a big fan of Larry Johnson\u2019s analysis, he seems to be underestimating the effectiveness of the US blockade. Even if some, arguably quite a few, ships are successfully running it, only a pretty small minority of owners and operators are willing to take even a 1 in 20 risk of having their cargoes, vessels and crews captured. And his account indicates that it is Iranian carriers who are most willing to accept that risk.6<\/p>\n
Early in the war, we cited a Bloomberg story (and Lloyd\u2019s List voiced similar views) that ship owners regarded lack of safety and not lack of insurance as the big impediment to transiting the Strait of Hormuz, even to get bottled-up vessels and crews in the Gulf out. In keeping, many Chinese ships, as in ones Iran would almost certainly let pass through the Strait of Hormuz, are still stuck:7<\/p>\n
Thai Foreign Minister: We asked for China\u2019s help to pass 8 ships to us through the Strait of Hormuz. They told us that they are struggling to pass 70 of their ships.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 27, 2026<\/p>\n
Vessel operators then said they wanted US\/Collective West escorts through the Strait. That indicates it will take a LOT of doing for many ship owners to get comfortable with an Iran (+ Oman?) operated transit scheme. So even in the highly unlikely scenario of Trump defying Israel and accepting the humiliation of leaving the Strait of Hormuz in Iran\u2019s, it seems that it would take even longer than even the pessimistically-minded assume for transit levels to go back to the old normal. It is not just a matter of getting ships unsnarled. Shipowners may hold back due to lack of trust in Iran, as in they will want to see the new procedures operating well before they will jeopardize vessels and cargoes. <\/p>\n
Briefly to some other noteworthy developments. Yesterday we skipped over the visit by Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Araghchi to St. Petersburg, which included an audience with Putin himself and Putin making strongly supportive remarks afterward.7<\/p>\n
Even more important, Putin has directly pressed Trump to back off from further kinetic measures against Iran. From the Kremlin website, in Commentary by Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov following Vladimir Putin\u2019s telephone conversation with President of the United States Donald Trump:<\/p>\n
President Vladimir Putin held another telephone conversation with President of the United States Donald Trump. The call lasted for more than an hour and a half\u2026<\/p>\n
Understandably, Vladimir Putin began by expressing his sympathy and support for the President of the United States in connection with the assassination attempt against him \u2026<\/p>\n
When discussing the international agenda, the presidents focused on the developments surrounding Iran and the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n
Vladimir Putin believes that Donald Trump was right to extend the ceasefire for Iran. This, he believes, will give negotiations a further chance and help stabilise the overall situation.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the President of Russia pointed out that if the United States and Israel resume military action, this would inevitably lead to extremely adverse consequences not only for Iran and its neighbours, but for the entire international community. He stressed that a ground operation on Iranian territory would be particularly unacceptable and dangerous.<\/p>\n
Russia remains firmly committed to facilitating diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a peaceful resolution of this crisis, and has put forward several proposals to help address differences over the Iranian nuclear programme. To this end, active contacts with Iranian representatives, leaders of the Gulf countries, as well as with Israel, and, naturally, the negotiating team of the United States will continue.<\/p>\n
Putin\u2019s spokesman Dmitry Peskov\u2019s remarks about the call were awfully muted. Per TASS:<\/p>\n
On Putin-Trump telephone conversation<\/p>\n
\u2013 A single conversation between Putin and Trump cannot suddenly improve the global situation or reverse negative trends, as there are just too many conflicts going on now: \u201cOf course, a single phone call can hardly improve the global situation, because, unfortunately, the concentration of conflicts is so great and the consequences of a whole series of conflicts for the international situation and the global economy are so serious that it is, of course, very difficult to stop these trends in an instant.\u201d<\/p>\n
In contrast to the Ushakov recap, Trump presents himself as having been borderline rude to Putin:<\/p>\n
Speaking moment ago in the Oval Office, President Trump stated that he had a \u201cvery good conversation\u201d today with Russian President Vladimir Putin about both Iran and Ukraine, with Putin claimed to have expressed interest in helping with Iran\u2019s stockpile of highly-enriched\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/vqOLfcaH46<\/p>\n
\u2014 OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 29, 2026<\/p>\n
Other short sightings. On the economic front:<\/p>\n
Japan Airlines will now be doubling the jet fuel surcharge to $350 USD per ticket for any JAL flight to North America or Europe going forward<\/p>\n
South Korean airlines will also be doubling their fuel surcharge pic.twitter.com\/JPrATkmdqw<\/p>\n
\u2014 Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) April 29, 2026<\/p>\n
Eurobanks are assuming the brace position, becoming cautious about lending and piling up on government bonds:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The pro-Israel propagandists are doubling down:<\/p>\n
The Politico CEO called an all-hands meeting to say the outlet unequivocally supports Israel. He also said any reporter who disagrees with his personal Zionism should quit.<\/p>\n
When pressed by reporters on the need to follow journalistic ethics, he said: \u201cI don\u2019t need to prove Iran\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/KYCk49zjiC<\/p>\n
\u2014 Joe Wrote (@joewrote) April 29, 2026<\/p>\n
And if you have time, Douglas Macgregor widens the focus to look at what the Trump\u2019s pugnacious and reckless actions have cost the US in terms of reputation and relationships:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Done for today. See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n
_____<\/p>\n
1 This is completely speculative, but recall the report by Larry Johnson confirmed by others that Trump had asked the military to ready a nuclear strike on Iran and they have flat-out refused. One can imagine Trump ranting that if they are denying him that option, they need to tell him what he could do. <\/p>\n
2 The press is suggesting that an attack would be strictly bombing, but the US has gotten a lot of special forces in theater, so Iran is sure to see that as in play. <\/p>\n
3 That may seem like coals to Newcastle, but Iran getting more crude to Russia in a setting of serious global shortages should allow Russia to increase its exports in similar amounts. <\/p>\n
4 Iran may also be considering that letting itself regularly being in the position of reacting to Trump is sub-optimal. In chess, in theory in a perfectly played game, the best black can do is fight to a draw, while white can win. Similarly, Scott Ritter has stressed the effectiveness of the OODA loop, of forcing the opponent to react to you.<\/p>\n
5 Mind you, signs of US stress are rising:<\/p>\n
This pace of US exports I mentioned a few days ago now shows clearly in the rapid pace of the US inventories depletion.<\/p>\n
This is in essence a transfer of inventory from a place of surplus (US) to a place of deficit (Asia).<\/p>\n
Those are not new molecules and the speed of this\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/ummuc3A7eu<\/p>\n
\u2014 Yet another commodity guy (@tleilax___) April 29, 2026<\/p>\n
And fFrom NO1:<\/p>\n
US depleting oil reserves at fastest pace since 2022. SPR drawn down 7.1M barrels (biggest weekly drain since Oct 2022), crude inventories fell 6.2M barrels, gasoline inventories down 6.1M barrels. US crude exports hit record 6.4M bpd. Per Javier Blas: \u201cUnsustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n
6 From Johnson in The Assassination Myth, And Iran Continues to Run the Blockade:<\/p>\n
\nUS Navy ships are staying 200 miles offshore from the Iranian coast. If they try to move closer to the Iranian coast they will be vulnerable to missile and drone attacks. All Iran has to do is sail its tankers 50 miles offshore in order to bypass the US blockade, which appears to be what Iran is doing.<\/p>\n
Reuters\/Kpler data reported at least 6 ships crossed in the 24 hours covering April 29 (mostly dry bulk carriers and some through Iranian waters, including sanctioned vessels like the Vast Plus chemical tanker). Other tracking (e.g., Anadolu Agency\/Windward) noted around 13\u201314 total transits in similar periods, far below the pre-war norm of 125\u2013140 daily.<\/p>\n
Iranian vessels dominate the limited traffic: Many (often about half in recent days) load at Iranian ports in defiance of the US blockade and use IRGC-designated routes. A Fars News Agency report (via Middle East Monitor) claimed 52 Iranian vessels (31 oil tankers + 21 cargo ships) breached the blockade in a 72-hour window ending around April 28. This suggests a notable number of Iranian-linked movements around that time, but no breakdown isolates April 29 alone.<\/p>\n
7 The impediment may also have been operational, as the Thai pleas suggest, in that Iran had not sorted out how to run its transit operation efficiently and thus could only let a few ships pass daily until it had worked things out, which clearly had not happened as of when the US imposed its blockade. <\/p>\n
.8 Note that John Helmer disagrees with what is close to an independent media community consensus that Russia is now openly throwing its weight behind Iran. From WHAT MESSAGE OF STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS IN WAR DID THE PUTIN-ARAGHCHI MEETING SEND:<\/p>\n
President Vladimir Putin told Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at their meeting on Monday in St Petersburg: \u201cWe see how courageously and heroically the Iranian people are fighting for their independence and sovereignty\u2026 For our part, we will do everything that meets your interests.\u201d This appeared to be an unqualified declaration of Russia\u2019s support for Iran to resist Trump\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n
Unqualified, however, it is not. At least not on Putin\u2019s part. His spokesman and advisor on foreign policy, Yury Ushakov, Russian ambassador to the US between 1998 and 2008, issued the qualifier: \u201cWe will analyze what he [Araghchi] will say, and analyze against the background of today\u2019s conversation the signals that we have received from both the Americans and the Israelis. And then we\u2019ll see what to do.\u201d In other words, Putin will balance Iran the defender against the US and Israel the attacker. Putin will measure their respective strengths and then choose which side to take in the fight.<\/p>\n
Here I have to differ a tad. First, Putin meeting with a foreign minister, as opposed to a head of state, is a strong sign of respect to the counterparty nation. Second, irrespective of the qualifier, Putin\u2019s statement at a minimum is a wake-up call to Israel. Putin has in the past been a strong supporter of Israel. Those days may be over, If forced to choose, Russia will back Iran, if nothing else for reasons of self-preservation. It does not want a failed state on the Caspian Sea.<\/p>\n
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