[This Iran war update is likely to be thin but hopefully accurate but your humble blogger has been mainly in transit and is now in the war zone, as in Dubai, so forgive me if catchup has led to material errors or omissions]<\/p>\n
Nat took appropriately yesterday to making fog of narrative a major focus of his update. I posted a tweet from a couple of days ago complaining that the already bad information pollution had increased markedly in the last 48 hours. After a short enforced absence from the newsflow, it is astonishing to see how much blather is being repeated uncritically. As usual, the big driver is Trump schizophrenic claims, that a deal is, as alway, just around the corner, even as he also insists that things are gonna happen that Iran would never never agree to, as in giving up nuclear enrichment.<\/p>\n
Admittedly, some of this outcome is due to Iran choosing to selectively play along, for reasons I cannot fully fathom. The current example is the \u201cStrait of Hormuz is completely open,\u201d which is a Trump and market pleasing framing, as confirmed by a drop in paper oil prices.<\/p>\n
As an aside, actual barrels remain immune to Trump\u2019s blather:<\/p>\n
Crude oil traded above $200\/bbl yesterday CnF Asia. If you think crude oil is going down is because you are looking at the Brent June and WTI May online video game for day gamblers. Refineries shutting down, flights being canceled due to jet fuel above $200\/bbl.
This is not a\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 Gerardo Moscatelli (@gemoscatelli) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
Since that has been confirmed by none other than Iran\u2019s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, it is now being headlined in the orthodox press and independent media podcosts.<\/p>\n
But that \u201ccompetely open\u201d seems to be the Iran war variant of Schrodinger\u2019s cat: whether the feline is alive or dead depends on who is opening the box, or more accurately, whether their priors prevented them from noticing Araghchi\u2019s caveats. For instance, that \u201cfully open\u201d is for at most the duration of the current Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which is set for only ten days.<\/p>\n
In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
Someone from the Iran side felt compelled to try to clear up the spinning of what Araghchi said. From Tasnim News. Source Clarifies Mechanism of Temporary Reopening of Hormuz Strait:<\/p>\n
From the beginning of the ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, Iran was supposed to allow daily passage of a number of ships, the informed source said Friday.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever\u201d he said \u201cafter the ceasefire in Lebanon failed to be implemented and the ceasefire agreement failed to include (ceasefire between) Hezbollah and the Zionist regime of Israel, Iran suspended the agreement on the passage of ships through the Strait.\u201d<\/p>\n
The informed source noted that Iran has set three conditions for the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz:<\/p>\n
2. Vessels must pass through the route designated by Iran.<\/p>\n
3. The passage of ships must be coordinated with the Iranian forces responsible for the passage; as CENTCOM had, before the war, confirmed the management of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) over the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
The informed source further emphasized that the implementation of some preconditions, including the ceasefire in Lebanon, was key to Iran\u2019s decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
The source at the same time warned that if naval blockade continues, it will be considered a violation of the ceasefire and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be prevented.<\/p>\n
Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain fully open to commercial vessels for the remaining period of ceasefire.<\/p>\n
First, the requirement for ships to transit through \u201cthe route designated by Iran\u201d which is sure to mean through Iranian territorial waters, does not correspond with what most US observers would think \u201cfully open\u201d means. Transit is still subject to Iran\u2019s conditions.<\/p>\n
Second, the barring of military ships is also not consistent with layperson readings of \u201ccompletely open.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fourth, the IRCG controls who does in and out; CENTCOM acting as if it has a vote via keeping the blockade on will violate Iran\u2019s conditions and lead to a Iran again clamping down on transits.<\/p>\n
One could argue that Iran has gotten caught in its own messaging underwear. It insisted early on that the Strait was open and it was those big bad insurers that were keeping it shut\u2026.when it did lob some missiles at vessels, including a Thai flagged cargo ship, killing three. It does not take much of that sort of thing for survival-favoring crews and loss-averse owners to decide that the prudent course of action is to wait until conditions look a lot safer.<\/p>\n
And what does one do with this?<\/p>\n
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Some mainstream outlets did quickly try improve informational hygiene.<\/p>\n
BREAKING: Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi Tabatabaei, a spokesperson for Iran\u2019s president, has lashed out at the \u201cbaseless statements of the enemy\u201d, shortly after Trump said Iran had agreed never to close the Strait of Hormuz again.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd34 LIVE updates: pic.twitter.com\/gdH9Zq5ZFi<\/p>\n
\u2014 Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
From The Mirror in Iran war live: Trump Strait of Hormuz claim branded \u2018baseless\u2019 by Tehran regime:<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump has claimed Iran will \u201cnever close the Strait of Hormuz again\u201d but Tehran has branded the comment \u201ca baseless statement of the enemy\u201d.<\/p>\n
Iran has declared that Tehran will reopen the shipping lane, which is vital to the UK\u2019s fuel supplies, for the remainder of Lebanon\u2019s 10-day ceasefire with Israel.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn line with the ceasefire, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire\u2026\u201d said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.<\/p>\n
Trump followed that by posting on Truth Social that the US blockade of Iranian ports would continue \u201cuntil such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete\u201d<\/p>\n
But hours after the sightings above (and others), Bloomberg has as its banner headline:<\/p>\n
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And Trump is keeping the blockade in place, as the landing page of BBC\u2019s live blog shows, again at odds with Iran\u2019s conditions:<\/p>\n
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Similarly:<\/p>\n
BREAKING: US military says more than 10,000 troops enforcing Iran blockade<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd34 LIVE updates: pic.twitter.com\/tfPUcAMAqf<\/p>\n
\u2014 Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
And of course, Israel, which ever and always is out to sabotage any hope of peace in the Middle East, did its usual spoiler routine:<\/p>\n
However, after the ceasefire failed to materialize in Lebanon and the agreement to extend the ceasefire to Hezbollah and the Zionist regime was not accepted, Iran suspended the ship passage agreement in the Strait. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Tasnim News Agency (@Tasnimnews_EN) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
Trump also made the wild-eyed claim that Iran was giving up uranium enrichment:<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udea8 JUST NOW: President Trump reveals IRAN AGREED to NO ENRICHED URANIUM<\/p>\n
An absolutely monumental win.<\/p>\n
\u201cDid Iran agree to stopping enriching uranium, getting rid of their ability to create these weapons. HE SAID YES. THEY AGREED TO EVERYTHING.\u201d \u2014 NewsNation<\/p>\n
Donald Trump is\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/8pOCymKLTu<\/p>\n
\u2014 Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
And that the US would take Iran\u2019s existing cache:<\/p>\n
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Again, Iran cleared its throat. From Agence France-Presse in Disputing Trump, Iran says its enriched uranium stockpile \u2018not being transferred anywhere\u2019:<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s foreign ministry says the country\u2019s stockpile of enriched uranium will not be transferred \u201canywhere,\u201d denying an earlier claim by US President Donald Trump that the Islamic Republic agreed to hand it over.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran\u2019s enriched uranium is not going to be transferred anywhere,\u201d Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei tells state TV.<\/p>\n
A second Iranian source pushed back Thursday against Trump\u2019s claim that Tehran agreed to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to the United States.<\/p>\n
Iranian journalist Mohammad Ghaderi wrote: \u201cThe delivery of enriched uranium to the U.S. is another lie,\u201d adding that \u201cno major\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/Oc84Bc18Dc<\/p>\n
\u2014 Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 16, 2026<\/p>\n
Trump says Iran agreed to even more things to which it almost certain Iran has not conceded:<\/p>\n
During an interview earlier with CBS News, President Trump said that Iran has agreed to stop backing proxy terrorist groups across the Middle East, like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.<\/p>\n
\u2014 OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
\u201cThey agreed to everything. It\u2019s a great deal. It\u2019s a wonderful deal. They agreed to everything\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n
Donald Trump stated in an interview with CBS News that Iran has agreed to all US conditions, including ceasing all support for \u201cHezbollah\u201d and \u201cHamas\u201d.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, The Wall Street\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/mdhf1Yn1G9<\/p>\n
\u2014 Sprinter Press Agency (@SprinterPress) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
NO1 confirms that Trump is Making Shit Up bigly and that Israel is predictably cheating on its ceasefire:<\/p>\n
If this is confirmed, Iran has acted to enforce its red lines:<\/p>\n
BREAKING!!! MULTIPLE SHIPS NOW BEING TURNED AWAY FROM THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ!!! pic.twitter.com\/NxVV0v09x9<\/p>\n
\u2014 DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
All of this talk of deals that are either not happening or are greatly exaggerated is more than just a strategy to keep Mr. Market dazzled. It smacks of setting up a pretext for launching another big salvo at Iran. Recall that in the talks led by JD Vance, the US side was apparently mystified that Iran was not eager to end the war. They really do believe their PR that Iran is close to being prostrated.<\/p>\n
Trump is already laying that ground:<\/p>\n
BREAKING: President Trump warns Iran that if they don\u2019t accept a peace deal the U.S. military will be forced to take action again:<\/p>\n
\u201cIf there\u2019s no deal, fighting will resume.\u201d pic.twitter.com\/cUuDqW5Xl3<\/p>\n
\u2014 Fox News (@FoxNews) April 16, 2026<\/p>\n
Larry Johnson and Olivier Boyd-Barrett express similar views. From Larry Johnson in Trump Pushes Fantasy about Iran, Hormuz and Enriched Uranium:<\/p>\n
Here is a summary of the various claims he [Trump] made on Friday:<\/p>\n
- \n
- The \u201cHormuz Strait situation is over\u201d and Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. He described it as \u201ccompletely open and ready for business and full passage.\u201d<\/li>\n
- Iran (with US help) is removing the mines it laid in the strait last month.<\/li>\n
- Iran has agreed to nearly all (or \u201cvirtually all\u201d) of his demands, including ending its nuclear program \u201cforever.\u201d<\/li>\n
- The war is \u201cvery close to over\u201d \/ \u201cclose to being over,\u201d and a final deal should be completed \u201cvery quickly\u201d (possibly with talks this weekend). He said most points have already been negotiated.<\/li>\n
- He agreed to a two-week double-sided ceasefire (suspended bombing\/attacks) after requests from Pakistani leaders, conditional on Iran fully opening the strait. Despite Iran\u2019s announcement that the strait is open, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in full force until the overall transaction\/deal with Iran is \u201c100% complete.\u201d<\/li>\n
- China\u2019s President Xi Jinping is \u201cvery happy\u201d that the strait is open\/rapidly opening. Trump claimed he is doing this \u201cfor them, also \u2014 and the World,\u201d and that this situation \u201cwill never happen again.\u201d<\/li>\n
- China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran. Trump predicted his upcoming trip to China will be \u201cspecial\u201d and \u201cpotentially Historic,\u201d and that President Xi will give him a \u201cbig, fat, hug.\u201d<\/li>\n
- He dismissed NATO as a \u201cPaper Tiger\u201d that was \u201cuseless when needed.\u201d After the strait reopened, NATO reportedly offered help, but Trump told them to stay away unless they just wanted to \u201cload up their ships with oil.\u201d<\/li>\n
- He emphasized that the US has already met and exceeded its military objectives. He claimed Iran now has a \u201cnew regime\u201d that is \u201cmuch less radicalized and far more intelligent\u201d than before, making a long-term peace agreement possible. He reiterated that the U.S. will work with Iran \u201cat a leisurely pace\u201d on finalizing the deal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Trump\u2019s flurry of messaging was primarily directed at manipulating the stock and oil markets. He succeeded, with the US stock market soaring while the future price of oil fell significantly. Investors foolishly believed that Trump was telling the truth. He was not\u2026 He lied\u2026.<\/p>\n
Trump is doing one of two things: 1) Spinning the American public so that he can make a deal to end the war, declare victory and head home, or 2) Or setting up a strawman by insisting a deal is at hand and then, when the US refuses Iran\u2019s demands as laid out in the 10-point plan, blame Iran for refusing to negotiate and launch new attacks on Iran by April 26. I believe, based on the continuing flow of US military aircraft into the region, that Trump is going to order new attacks on Iran before the end of April.<\/p>\n
From Olivier Boyd-Barrett in Lying Through His Strait<\/p>\n
While the situation in Iran and Lebanon is confused, it certainly falls a great deal short of anything that US President Donald Trump has claimed in the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n
Here is my take, albeit provisional:<\/p>\n
Under pressure from the US, Israel appears to have conceded a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon but this is conditional upon Hezbollah \u2013 which is not, so far as I know, formally a party to any ceasefire, although it may have voluntarily ceased its fire for the time being \u2013 not attacking Israel\u2019s occupying occupying army in southern Lebanon\u2026<\/p>\n
Earlier today Trump claimed that in the wake of the ceasefire in Lebanon (a condition of Iran\u2019s 10-point plan which according to Trump was supposedly the basis for the US-Iran talks that took place in Islamabad last weekend, but which the US arch zionists Kushner and Witkoff scuttled after 21 hours), Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump followed this up by saying that the US blockade was still in place so far as the movement of Iranian ships is concerned\u2026<\/p>\n
Iran later denied that the Strait had been opened and said that it retained safe corridors for ships approved by Iran\u2026.<\/p>\n
In one of his Truth Social posts today, Trump has claimed that Iran has agreed to hand over its \u201cnuclear dust,\u201d an apparent reference to its enriched uranium\u2026this claim is highly unlikely to be true, in my judgement.<\/p>\n
Reports continue to indicate a US military build-up in the Gulf region, although safely removed, in the case of US shipping, by 500 or so miles from the Strait of Hormuz, even despite a crop of reports alleging that US navy personnel are suffering from inadequate food and hygienic conditions. Whether or not these reports are true they do serve as a reminder of the great logistical challenge involved in feeding and sustaining any invading army in armed and hostile territory.<\/p>\n
In a new talk with Mario Nawfal, Colonel Douglas Macgregor says he believes the US will launch a savage three or so day air campaign against Iran when the ceasefire expires next week:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Macgregor describes the US intent to \u201cthe final solution for Iran,\u201d which he believes could to \u201calmost fatal damage\u201d yet still has good odds of failure. One small quibble: he expects the strikes to start within a few days. I doubt this market-sensitive Administration would launch early in a trading week, so I would expect Friday (to end the week with reports of a great wave af bombings before results were known) to be the earliest probable date, and over the next weekend or even the weekend after to be more likely.<\/p>\n
Professor Marandi similarly expects war to resume:<\/p>\n
Personally, I believe Trump is probably saying all this nonsense about agreements with Iran so that he can later claim, \u201cIran didn\u2019t keep its promises\u201d \u2013 promises Iran never made. The chances of renewed murderous aggression from Trump and Netanyahu are high.<\/p>\n
Iran is ready.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
In the meantime, more Trump-appeasing handwaves from the UK. Starmer\u2019s position has been that the UK would get involved only after fighting stopped. As far as I can tell, this is just old wine in new bottles:<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udea8 BREAKING: Keir Starmer says the UK will lead a defensive military mission with France to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz pic.twitter.com\/QUPKaywjou<\/p>\n
\u2014 Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) April 17, 2026<\/p>\n
Even though Politico, faithful stenographer ever, takes up Starmer\u2019s framing. If you read carefully, despite 30 countries signing up, there continues to be not much there. From Europe to accelerate effort to secure Hormuz despite Trump\u2019s order to \u2018STAY AWAY\u2019. The amusing new wrinkle is Trump lashing out at the EU messing with his optics of having been abandoned even by vassals:<\/p>\n
European leaders pledged to rapidly ramp up a multinational effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz after Iran said it would reopen the vital waterway to maritime traffic, even if Donald Trump doesn\u2019t want their help.<\/p>\n
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the prime ministers of Italy and the United Kingdom, Giorgia Meloni and Keir Starmer, jointly announced Friday that they would be spearheading what Starmer called a \u201cdefensive\u201d mission to ensure freedom of navigation in the strait, through which a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas travels.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe agreed to accelerate the military planning, I can confirm that France and the U.K. will lead a multinational mission to protect freedom of passage as soon as conditions allow,\u201d said Starmer, adding that details would be shared at a military planning conference in London next week.<\/p>\n
The United States, however doesn\u2019t appear inclined to accept that assistance.<\/p>\n
After announcing that Tehran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following Israel and Lebanon\u2019s agreement on a 10-day ceasefire, Trump wrote Friday on his Truth Social account that his NATO allies were \u201cuseless\u201d and weren\u2019t needed.<\/p>\n
\u201cI received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
I have stopped now because my plane is boarding. See you soon!<\/p>\n
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