[This Iran war post launched before complete because reasons. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browsers then for a final version] <\/p>\n
Trump keeps digging his and America\u2019s hole deeper out of his desperate need for dominance and refusal to find a way to exit the Iran war catastrophe he created. After the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad hit an impasse, with no plan to try again, Trump issued a set of angry tweets:<\/p>\n
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The idea of the US \u201cclosing\u201d the Strait of Hormuz was so obviously cray cray, as in counter to the Administration\u2019s ongoing efforts to contain at least paper oil prices via gimmicks and Trump\u2019s barker patter that I thought this had to be a deception to mask some other kinetic scheme or yet another effort to manipulate the markets for fun and profit, here by spiking oil prices. Recall that Trump and allies were talking up \u201ctaking\u201d Kharg Island or perhaps islands in the Strait of Hormuz when in fact they were moving ahead with the barmily high-risk scheme of trying to seize Iran\u2019s enriched uranium. That resulted in the biggest single-operation loss of US aircraft since the Vietnam War.<\/p>\n
And there is evidence that the US is still trying to Do Something in the ground operation category:<\/p>\n
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\udde9\ud83c\uddea At least 7 massive USAF C 17 cargo giants are now in constant motion, flying back to back between US bases in Europe, mainly Ramstein Germany, and the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Nonstop. Relentless. No pause.<\/p>\n
Heavy airlift is underway and the skies are getting crowded.<\/p>\n
Source\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/TEQgLn2Vh9<\/p>\n
\u2014 Defense Intelligence (@DI313_) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
The only sort of good news in this renewed escalation drama is that the US has not (yet) renewed strikes on Iran. From the Bloomberg landing page at 7:00 AM EDT:<\/p>\n
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But CENTCOM has announced that the \u201cblockade\u201d will start at 10:AM EDT on the 13th, which is 5:30 PM in Tehran and 6:00 PM in the UAE. Again, contrast this rapid action with the widespread skepticism among experts that Trump was serious, as opposed to blowing off steam and\/or engaging in threat display. For instance, in Trump\u2019s \u2018illegal\u2019 Hormuz blockade threat risks global oil shock and wider war, analysts say at Aljazeeraa, the analysts thought it was likely that this was posturing.<\/p>\n
Similarly:<\/p>\n
Regarding Trump\u2019s threat\/decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, color me a skeptic.<\/p>\n
1. Taking more oil off the market, particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf, will drive oil prices further up, and the paper price of oil will get closer to\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 Trita Parsi search. .. (@tparsi) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
The blockade gambit is such an obvious own goal that even the adept Iranian embassy trolls were caught flat-footed:<\/p>\n
The new move from trump against our country is so comical that we don\u2019t even have a meme for it.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Iran Embassy in Thailand \u262b (@IranInThailand) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
But soon enough:<\/p>\n
Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4\u2013$5 gas.<\/p>\n
\u0394O_BSOH>0 \u21d2 f(f(O))>f(O) pic.twitter.com\/rVxlC6vFWG<\/p>\n
\u2014 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f\u0628\u0627\u0642\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0644\u06cc\u0628\u0627\u0641 | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
Sal Mercogliano describes how this operation appears intended to operate:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Mind you, one has to take Mecogliana with a fistful of salt, particularly given his jingoism and his tendency to beyond his knowledge.1 In light of that, it is revealing to see how uncomfortable he is with this Trump plan as engaging in the same type of interference with freedom of navigation that the Trump Administration has made a bloody flag and Mercogliano has made clear he opposes. He argues that those rule were designed to apply to peaceful traffic, implying that there is a case for different behavior in a time of war. Gee, if that applies to the US, why does that not go double for Iran, particularly given that the behavior of Gulf States like Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE makes them co-belligerents under UN rules, and thus fair game for military action?<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, Mercogliano explains that the Trump plans is to bar ships leaving Iran\u2019s ports from getting to their destinations. That would presumably handled similar to how the US went after an\u201dsanctioned\u201d oil carrier that had tried going to Venezuela and had departed empty due to not having docked or loaded a cargo. The US chased it across much of the Atlantic before boarding it. The US presumably intends to act as a pirate and seize cargoes rather than blow up ships, as it did with an unarmed Iranian frigate returning from India.3<\/p>\n
I wonder how many pursuits the US can engage in in parallel, since I assume sort of servicemembers that are practiced in these operations are not in huge supply. I doubt that the US would try to stop vessels departing Iran all that close to Iran.2<\/p>\n
A fresh assessment from Aljazeera pre-supposes the US will operate against Iranian ports. I question this assumption but we will see soon enough:<\/p>\n
\u2018Hard operation\u2019: US faces challenges in stopping tankers at Iranian ports
Iran would view any US move to block shipping to and from its ports as both risky and extremely difficult to execute, according to Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at Tehran University.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is a matter of question whether the US army can stop the tankers and supertankers in this vast waterway,\u201d Eslami said, arguing such an operation would be \u201ca hard operation for the US army\u201d.<\/p>\n
He stressed that Iran is under heavy military and economic pressure and does not want its access to \u201cfood and other things that it needs\u201d cut off, while facing attacks from the US and Israel.<\/p>\n
Eslami said Tehran wants to send \u201ca very strong message to the Americans\u201d even as \u201cmost parties are thinking about diplomatic settlements for the crisis,\u201d warning that closing the Strait would be \u201ca very, very big step by both sides\u201d.<\/p>\n
And there are other glaring issues with this Trump scheme:<\/p>\n
All it is going to take is for one Chinese flagged ship to pass through with Iranian permission.<\/p>\n
No American navy leadership, in their right mind, is going to fire on a Chinese flagged civilian vessel, during an illegal blockade.<\/p>\n
That is such a blatantly illegal order that it\u2026 <\/p>\n
\u2014 Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
Source to Tasnim: If Trump takes action against the Strait of Hormuz, he could also lose Bab al-Mandab Strait
\u2014\u2014
\u2022 Following recent remarks by Donald Trump about imposing a naval blockade on Iran and restricting ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, an informed source told\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2014 The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
And if you think this operation is somehow good for the US, think again:<\/p>\n
Lots of posts in my feed crowing that empty tankers are sailing to the US for crude oil. I guess they forgot that this means demand for US crude and higher prices.<\/p>\n
Go to your local gas station and see if you can spark a \u201cU-S-A\u201d chant at the pumps.<\/p>\n
Let us know how it goes. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
Mr. Market is of the same view. From the Financial Times in Oil prices soar above $100 a barrel as hope fades of end to Iran war:<\/p>\n
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on Monday following the breakdown of US-Iran talks and plans by Donald Trump to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 8 per cent to $102.82, while West Texas Intermediate jumped 8.4 per cent to $104.65, as oil traders warned a prolonged conflict would worsen fuel shortages\u2026.<\/p>\n
\tAnalysts said the US strategy to block the strait did not yet amount to a return to active combat. But it pointed towards an escalation that would increase concerns about a worsening shortage of key petroleum products, such as jet fuel and diesel.<\/p>\n
\u201cEscalation tends to beget escalation,\u201d said Kevin Book, head of research at ClearView Energy Partners. \u201cBlocking Iranian tankers could raise prices and worsen shortages.\u201d<\/p>\n
And from Bloomberg\u2019s live feed:<\/p>\n
Markets are reflecting escalating tensions, with oil prices trading back above $100 a barrel. Brent crude futures jumped 7.6%. Equity markets were more muted, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.7% and the S&P 500 set to open lower by a similar measure.<\/p>\n
Another entry suggests that investors are trying really really hard to think happy thoughts:<\/p>\n
Oil is up on Monday, but the advance to just above $100 a barrel by global benchmark Brent does not speak to a full and long-lasting attempt at choking off all Iranian oil flows, and everything that might ensue from that.<\/p>\n
There are a lot of questions about the blockade, and even if it\u2019s not possible to know all the answers, one can imagine realistic scenarios that are not as bullish for the price of oil as a full blockade:<\/p>\n
- \n
- What will a blockade of Iranian oil look like in practice? Seize and interdict? Or blow up commercial ships as Iran has done?<\/li>\n
- What hardware does the US have in place to both fight a war with Iran and execute a blockade?<\/li>\n
- Is the US really willing to take actions that would drive oil prices materially higher?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
We have pointed out that Iran has had protracted periods, such as in 2019 and 2020, that its oil exports were close to nil. So the idea that they can\u2019t get by with no oil revenues, which seems to be the US belief, is exaggerated. <\/p>\n
Note that WTI futures are trading at higher than Brent. This is likely an artifact of market oddities. WTI is a physical delivery contract, so my understanding is that its prices for near-dated contracts are pretty close to actual spot market. Brent is theoretically physical delivery mechanism, but they are so cumbersome that in practice it is a cash-settled contract. That has facilitated the recent, widely observed phenomenon of physical oil in Europe trading at markedly higher prices than what is now described as \u201cpaper oil\u201d.<\/p>\n
Not surprisingly, tankers of all sorts are staying away from the Persian Gulf, even with the US operation intends to mess only with vessels that go to Iran\u2019s ports. From Reuters in Oil tankers steer clear of Hormuz ahead of US blockade:<\/p>\n
Oil tankers are steering clear of the \u200bStrait of Hormuz ahead of a U.S. blockade later on Monday following failed peace talks \u200cbetween the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, shipping data showed\u2026.<\/p>\n
U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces would begin implementing the blockade of \u200ball maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on \u2060Monday.<\/p>\n
It would be \u201cenforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, \u200bincluding all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,\u201d it said in a statement on X.<\/p>\n
U.S. \u200bforces would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, and additional information would be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade, it said.<\/p>\n
The tanker hesitation may be due to in part to Iran saber-rattling. <\/p>\n
IRGC warning: if Iran\u2019s ports aren\u2019t safe, no Gulf port will be.<\/p>\n
\u201cEither for everyone or no one.\u201d<\/p>\n
#WashingtonEye pic.twitter.com\/uCKSlFgB4V<\/p>\n
\u2014 Washington Eye (@washington_EY) April 13, 2026<\/p>\n
More on the Iran position per Middle East Eye:<\/p>\n
IRGC: Military vessels approaching Hormuz constitute \u2018breach of ceasefire\u2019<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the approach of military vessels toward the Strait of Hormuz would constitute a violation of the ceasefire, warning such moves would be met with a \u201cfirm and harsh\u201d response, according to a statement reported by IRNA.<\/p>\n
The IRGC said civilian shipping remains permitted under regulated conditions, rejecting \u201cclaims to the contrary\u201d.<\/p>\n
The warning comes after US Centcom said that two of its destroyer ships transited Hormuz to ensure the strait is clear of sea mines previously laid by the IRGC. <\/p>\n
This of course means Iran could retaliate on a completely different front. <\/p>\n
In an important, must listen talk with Tom Switzer, John Mearsheimer and Joshua Landis give a broader view:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Landis makes some important points. Israel opposed the JCPOA not because it did allow enrichment but because it lifted financial sanctions. Recall that Ted Postol, along with other experts, said the JCPOA did effectively constrain Iran\u2019s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Israel regarded a more economically successful Iran as able to become more powerful in the region and thus a threat to Israeli dominance. Israel believed that by having the US exit the JCPOA, it could bombing Iran, prevent its nuclear weapons development and also keep it poor. Landis later argues that Israel will continue to try to pursue its \u201cmowing the lawn\u201d strategy, of attacking perceived threats so as to harm infrastructure and the population. But two can play this game, as Iran is demonstrating. <\/p>\n
Oddly, neither Mearsheimer nor Landis acknowledge that Iran is well aware of this Israel strategy, of seeking to land big punches every so often so as to keep its opponents off balance and weak. Iran has decided it will have no more of that and intends to inflict enough pain on the US and Israel so that it will be a very long time before they try that again.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t see how that comes about ex regime change, which is an outcome Iran is seeking. Admittedly, Professor Marandi is not an official spokesperson but his views do not stray far from widely-held ones in the government:3<\/p>\n
Mearsheimer and Landis both depressingly expect that this conflict will continue for a long time, albeit not at a consistent high level of kinetic activity. <\/p>\n
More on the economic front. Jeff Snider focuses on one of our pet peeves, that the business and political press have been fixated on energy prices, and have ignored the additional and substantial harm done to supply of other key commodities. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
We were also early to warn about the impact of helium shortages on chip production and MRI:<\/p>\n
The helium collapse accelerates.<\/p>\n
All mass spec labs are about to go dark. Medical imaging, too, for those instruments that use helium.<\/p>\n
My lab has a 1-year supply of helium in place, because I saw this coming and ordered my analysts to stock up in early March.<\/p>\n
Apparently we got\u2026 <\/p>\n
\u2014 HealthRanger (@HealthRanger) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
We posted an article from VoxEU that guesstimated that the inflation impact of supply shortfalls of other critical materials would be at least as large, in and of itself, as the energy price hike effects. <\/p>\n
The focus on the US Strait blockade and the resulting market upset looks news-wise to have crowded out another important developments. From NO1:<\/p>\n
Erdogan threatens to \u201center\u201d Israel. Turkish president said \u201cJust as we entered Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we will do exactly the same to them\u201d, the most explicit military threat by a NATO member against a US-aligned partner since Turkey\u2019s 1974 Cyprus operation. Netanyahu responded by calling Erdogan the \u201cHitler of our time\u201d. <\/p>\n
And Trump is taking hits on other fronts. It\u2019s outside the scope of this post, but the resounding defeat of Viktor Orban\u2019s party in Hungary, after the Trump Administration threw its weight behind Orban, cost Trump a toehold of support in the EU. A Russophobic Bloomberg newsletter notes:<\/p>\n
Trump, who openly backed Orban and sent Vice President JD Vance to Budapest days before the vote, has now lost the standard bearer for MAGA-style populism among rightwing forces in Europe.<\/p>\n
And not only are Trump\u2019s poll numbers at terrible level but even core backers are no longer keen about him:<\/p>\n
The Magic is Gone: Trump’s entrance tonight into UFC 327 in Miami should be a wake up call for Trump and his handlers. <\/p>\n
The times when Trump electrified the UFC crowds when he walked out into the area seem to be over.<\/p>\n
Some people clapped but the wide angle shots of the crowd\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/JZ3BJ8smTd<\/p>\n
\u2014 Thomas Paine Band (@ThomasPaineBand) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
The Pope is not cowed. BBC included the Pope\u2019s continuing protests in the headline of its live feed but Aljazeera has better detail:<\/p>\n
Pope Leo says he will continue to speak out against war
Pope Leo XIV says he plans to continue speaking out against war, despite Donald Trump\u2019s attack on him.<\/p>\nThe leader of the Roman Catholic Church also said that the Christian message was being \u201cabused\u201d.<\/p>\n
The \u200cpontiff made the comments to journalists aboard the papal flight to Algiers, where the first US pope is starting a 10-day tour to four African countries.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t want to get into a debate with him,\u201d Leo said. \u201cI don\u2019t think that the message of the Gospel is meant to \u2060be abused in the \u2060way that some people are doing.<\/p>\n
\u201cI will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote \u2060peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states \u2060to look for just \u2060solutions to problems.<\/p>\n
\u201cToo many innocent people are being killed. And I think someone has to \u200cstand \u200cup and say there\u2019s a better way,\u201d the Reuters \u2060news agency reported.<\/p>\n
Reader Tom Stone has regularly pointed out that Trump is unhinged. He seems to becoming even more so, witness his even longer tweets at the top of this post plus:<\/p>\n
Trump is having a mental health episode right now. He\u2019s been posting on social media all night. He posted at:<\/p>\n
9:49pm (Ai Jesus photo)
9:50pm (Trump tower on moon)
10:10pm (dumb meme)
10:32pm (news clip)
10:53pm (news clip)
12:43am (announcing Hormuz blockade)
2:35am (article\u2026<\/p>\n\u2014 Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) April 13, 2026<\/p>\n
Related views:<\/p>\n
Christian evangelical pastors would rather say a demon flew up Trump’s nose & took over his soul, than admit they were conned by an atheist that mocks their religion. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Cuckturd (@CattardSlim) April 13, 2026<\/p>\n
Finally, we\u2019re including this clip as infotainment. The material in the opening section is likely to be familiar. But at 10:00, Tucker Carlson faces off against a remarkably smarmy BBC host, Victoria Derbyshire. I am envious of Tucker\u2019s skill in keeping his cool while smacking down her attempt at character assassination. And right after is a very fine SNL skit.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Also a general note: a reader attempted to post an obvious AI fake video of Professor Seyed Marandi. Not only were the voice and facial expressions WAY off, but he staring into the camera in a solo presentation (which he never does, he appears only on TV or podcasts) and as wearing a suit and tie!!!! Men in Iran do not wear ties!<\/p>\n
Our moderation major domo katiebird just spend a LOT of time scrubbing the mod list, with the result that the number of comments going into mod has fallen dramatically. However, we also have a surge of readers who should know better posting AI content, which is completely unacceptable. <\/p>\n
If readers continue to violate our site Policies by posting AI, we will have no choice but to impose new rules to make sure we can review comments before they appear. Please be more discriminating and respectful for the sake of this community. <\/p>\n
Done for today! See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n
______<\/p>\n
1 For instance, his persistent failure to acknowledge that the US and Israel violated international law by starting this war and openly committing war crimes; his depicting LNG and helium shortages as the result of Iran\u2019s Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions, as opposed to the fact that Iran severely damaged critical Qatar LNG infrastructure after the US and Israel attacked Iran\u2019s South Pars gas field, and his insistence that \u201csteely-eyed\u201d US naval officers were not intimidated by Iran when they went into the Strait of Hormuz. It was never likely that Iran would fire at what it would see as transgressing US vessels as the talks were underway. Even so, as readers know, the Iranians through the Pakistanis told the US that if the destroyers did not leave in 30 minutes, they would be targeted. And Iran acted as if it was prepared to deliver:<\/p>\n
The USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) and USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121), both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers were only a few minutes away from complete destruction after Iranian cruise missiles locked onto the vessel and attack drones were deployed. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Ahmad Noroozi (@ANoroozee) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
\u203c\ufe0f\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 In the Strait of #Hormuz, an Iranian high-speed boat approached \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 U.S. warships.<\/p>\n
Both sides observed the ceasefire; the incident showed that Iran maintains control over the waters of the strait. pic.twitter.com\/MO2gn6Kz0h<\/p>\n
\u2014 Military Summary (@MilitarySummary) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
2 I have no idea how far Iranian underwater drones can go, but IMHO, Iran\u2019s best play if the opportunity presents is not to sink a US vessel but so damage its propulsion or navigation systems that is can\u2019t or barely can go anywhere and is on the receiving end of a costly and visible rescue operation. <\/p>\n
3 It had participated in war games, and the players in these exercises are never armed. <\/p>\n
4 This clip on Sky News from 2024 seems to have been expunged from Twitter. I did find it on Instagram:<\/p>\n
@pakazadi31 <\/p>\n
2024 IRAN WAR PREDICTION WAS INSANELY ACCURATE Listening to Iran’s Seyed Mohammad Marandi in 2024 predicting EXACTLY what would happen if Israel\/U.S. started war with Iran. Man, that was not a bluff.<\/p>\n
\u266c original sound \u2013 pakazadi <\/p>\n
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