[Today\u2019s Iran war post launched before complete because stockpiling and trip prep. Please come back or refresh your browser at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]<\/p>\n
The US\/Iran talks failed, predictably but perhaps faster than expected. Recall that a pause misleadingly called a ceasefire was set for two week to allow for settlement of disagreements and an end to the conflict. The session ended with JD Vance claiming that the US had made its \u201cfinal and best offer.\u201d There was no indication from either the US or Iran side that further discussion was in the works. <\/p>\n
The two sides had a ginormous chasm between their positions. Iran had not reason to either trust the US or make large concessions. The badly-enbubbled US leadership seems to believe one or both of two things. First, that the US has won and\/or is winning, so (in a variant of \u201cthe Russians are running out of weapons\u201d) if they can keep pressure on, Iran will soon fall into a heap. Second, that the continuation of the conflict will benefit key interest groups aligned with the Administration, such as fossil fuel players, defense contractors, and Silicon Valley. The latter view is as nutty as the first. As the wags say, the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. They eventually kill economic activity and lead to low oil prices. The futures market expects that, with longer-dated contracts trading more in line with old normal prices.1<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll turn first to the recaps and hot takes on what happened, and then look at why failure was predictable and what happens next.<\/p>\n
The talks lasted 21 hours. Recall Iran had set a one-day limit. Iran in a show of seriousness sent a massive team, including technical, military, security and banking experts. This was likely intended to stand in contrast to the lightweights America dispatched.<\/p>\n
JD Vance\u2019s short remarks come at the top of this Aljazeera segment:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
First, the US position is that Iran would not accept its terms, strongly implying that the US did not intend to negotiate. Vance depicts the main sticking points as Iran refusing to commit never to build a nuclear weapon. That is code for no enrichment, even for medical purposes, a position Iran has consistently rejected.<\/p>\n
Second, you may have noticed that Vance by implication saying Iran had to negotiate from the US position amounted to a disagreement over process, or what in Vietnam War negotiations was called the shape of the table. Iran had repeatedly maintained that it had preconditions for negotiation, such as the return of all of its frozen assets, an end to hostilities on all Middle East fronts, and acceptance of its sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Vance framing indicates that the US puts its fingers in its ears and said, \u201cNyah nyah nyah\u201d to Iran\u2019s procedural requirements. <\/p>\n
You\u2019ll see in the Aljazeera segment a bizarre amount of cope about how the negotiations might restart later. IMHO this is impossible absent big and undeniable changes in facts on the ground, and\/or regime change in Israel or the US. <\/p>\n
Iran quickly made clear why the interaction went nowhere. The Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman cited an atmosphere of mistrust\u2026<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The Speaker of the Parliament, MB Ghalibaf, similarly said, \u201c\u2026the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.\u201d\u201d<\/p>\n
\u06f1\/\u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u0630\u0627\u06a9\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0623\u06a9\u06cc\u062f \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0627 \u062d\u0633\u0646 \u0646\u06cc\u062a \u0648 \u0627\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0647\u0654 \u0644\u0627\u0632\u0645 \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0645 \u0648\u0644\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u062a\u062c\u0631\u0628\u06cc\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0648 \u062c\u0646\u06af \u0642\u0628\u0644\u06cc\u060c \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0646\u062f\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0645. <\/p>\n
\u0647\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u062f\u0631 \u0647\u06cc\u0626\u062a \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u0646\u0627\u0628\u06f1\u06f6\u06f8 \u0627\u0628\u062a\u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0631\u0648 \u0628\u0647 \u062c\u0644\u0648\u06cc\u06cc \u0645\u0637\u0631\u062d \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0646\u062f \u0648\u0644\u06cc \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u062f\u0631 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u062a \u0646\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u0633\u062a \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u0630\u0627\u06a9\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0647\u06cc\u0626\u062a \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u062c\u0644\u0628 \u06a9\u0646\u062f.<\/p>\n
\u2014 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f\u0628\u0627\u0642\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0644\u06cc\u0628\u0627\u0641 | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
It looks as if, true to form, the Trump Team was unable to contain its bad impulses. It engaged in a show of macho by sending two destroyers to the Strait of Hormuz while the talks were underway. More on this soon, but the US predictably tried making noise about the vessels getting through the Strait of Hormuz, when this was in fact a bad-faith action. Iran would not shoot as the ship as it normally would absent the pow-wow. Instead, parties in Iran contacted their negotiators. They informed the US side that if the destroyer did not exit in 30 minutes, it would be attacked. It beat a retreat.<\/p>\n
In addition, some commentators said that Trump put a (further) chill on the talks via his threats while they were underway. I assume this was what they meant:<\/p>\n
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Assuming Trump believes what he wrote above, this statement provided yet more evidence of his cluelessness about the state of the conflict. As readers know well, Iran has many mechanisms for threatening vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and thus forcing them to comply with its terms for transit: fast surface boats (apparently well stored), surface drones, underwater drones, drones fired from well behind the cliffs (recall they have a range of 50 kilometers), and firing ordnance of Lord only knows what sort from the many caves in the cliffs overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n
In addition, the threat to bar Iranian traffic would be certain to send Mr. Market into even more of a tizzy. Recall that the US unsanctioned Iranian tanker cargoes to get as much oil back on the market to temper price increases. <\/p>\n
But no idea is too stupid for this Administration not to attempt it, so don\u2019t rule it out. <\/p>\n
And the arguable coup de grace on the mistrust front:<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udea8 BREAKING CEASEFIRE UPDATES \ud83d\udea8<\/p>\n
“We are disappointed with how US behaved. Netanyahu’s call to Vance during the meeting shifted the focus from US-Iran negotiations to Israel’s interests. The U.S. tried to achieve at the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war. We\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/XzidROUfG4<\/p>\n
\u2014 gulvinder (@rebelliousdogra) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
Larry Johnson provides additional intel in Trump Refuses Exit Ramp, War with Iran will Continue:<\/p>\n
\nAs I expected, the negotiation between the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Although JD Vance headed the US team, he was never in control\u2026 I have heard from someone who was directly involved with this circus in Islamabad that Israeli agents \u2014 Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner \u2014 made certain that JD Vance would not follow his instincts and accept the deal that Iran had laid on the table. Israel\u2019s role in sabotaging the US delegation was evident in Vance\u2019s statement announcing the failure of the negotiations, when he falsely accused Iran of refusing to give up its alleged quest for a nuclear weapon. This is just a rehashed piece of Zionist propaganda.<\/p>\n
There were three Iranian conditions that the US refused to accept: Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to Israel\u2019s attack on Lebanon and Hezbollah, unfreezing of Iran\u2019s assets and retaining sovereignty over its supply of enriched uranium. I have said repeatedly this past week during various interviews on the subject that Iran\u2019s position on these issues was non-negotiable.<\/p>\n
Here is the statement just released by the Iranian government:<\/p>\n
The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest \u2014 attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war.<\/p>\n
Among these demands are handing over enriched uranium and opening the Strait of Hormuz without confirmed Iranian sovereignty over it.<\/p>\n
Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic.\u2019<\/p>\n
Reports from the Iranian side suggest an additional layer of spin via the focus on the \u201cnuclear weapsons\u201d issue, that of the US refusal to pressure Israel to halt attacks on Lebanon was a big no-go for them (click through on the underlying tweet for the translation; it did appear for me in English when logged into Twitter):<\/p>\n
This sounds plausible and suggests that Vance’s surprising focus on the nuclear file as the reason for the deadlock is a pretext to cover up the real problem in the talks \u2013 Israel’s continued bombardment of Lebanon. <\/p>\n
\u2014 Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
Despite Iran making a gesture that the talks might not be dead:<\/p>\n
Iran govt on X . Negotiation will continue despite differences. #nifty #Pakist\u00e1n #usa #trump#israel<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr Rajeev Ranjan (@Nidan_Rajeev) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
\u2026the Iranian media seems to speak with one voice in pinning the failure of the talks firmly on the US, and more important, indicating that Iran has no interest in further discussions until the US relents on its demands:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The Iranians are yet again trolling:<\/p>\n
They tried to steal our enriched uranium by force near Isfahan about 2 weeks ago. They lost two C-130 Hercules and several helicopters. You see the picture.<\/p>\n
So they sent Vance to Islamabad to ask for the same thing politely! \ud83e\udd15<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump! two doors:
Door 1: More war, more\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/ZQYj1EgZjq<\/p>\n
\u2014 Iran in Ghana (@IRAN_GHANA) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
Trump’s first post after Iran peace talks broke down: pic.twitter.com\/v4OMibEnlw<\/p>\n
\u2014 OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
It was also clear, via the provocation as the talks were on of the US trying to send a destroyer through the Strait of Hormuz. The US propagandists make much of the claim that it \u201cgot through\u201d. This sort of dick-wagging in fact reveals the weakness of the US position, that it is desperate to score what it can present as wins to hide its fundamental defeat. <\/p>\n
Patrick Henningsen, in a discussion before the talks broke down, describes why he was confident they would fail.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a lot of important insight here, so I urge you to listen to the entire segment. Henningsen says the Iranians did not seem to think an agreement was possible but nevertheless treated the process seriously to show they were a \u201cnormative power\u201d. He describes Trump\u2019s terrible track record as a negotiator and that he, Witkoff and Kushner seem unable to conduct themselves in a way that fosters productive long-term relationships. 2 And aside from the posture of the Trump Team, Israel stood ready to sabotage any deal. Henningsen aligns with Alastair Crooke in seeing the US and Israel as trying to stoke civil war in Lebanon. <\/p>\n
Nima cites a CNN report that China has been arming Iran. Henningsen believes China like Russia has been preparing for the worst. <\/p>\n
Max Blumenthal, in a discussion with Glenn Diesen, effectively dashes any hope of what Joe Kent described as the only hope for an early-ish end of the Iran war, that of the US cutting Israel loose. Blumenthal describes long form the deep ties between Trump and the Zionists, going back to his father Fred Trump. Blumenthal lists many figures in Trump\u2019s inner circle, some of whom may not be familiar to readers, as well as his family\u2019s investment in a network of Zionist influencers.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
In another valuable exchange, Alastair Crooke tells Chris Hedges that the Iranians view the ceasefire as what they would call a hudna (which seems even more provisional) and offers some key high-level observations. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
From a mildly cleaned-up machine transcript starting at 9:25:<\/p>\n
Crooke: I mean in a nutshell the objectives of Iran are to blow blow up the existing paradigm. That is a revolutionary objective, to blow it up completely, in order that they can escape if you like from the cage in which they\u2019ve been held for 48 years of surrounded by US military forces, besieged by tariffs, by restrictions, UN resolutions, political isolation, economic, cultural if you like boycott. So this is what they are trying to break out from break out. It\u2019s not the same cage that the Hamas and the Palestinians are in in Gaza, which is a literal fence and drones and monitoring of it. But Iran is intent on breaking the paradigm and the key to breaking that paradigm of course is the Hormuz and their control over the Hormuz which is um the uh centerpiece of their strategic objectives. <\/p>\n
And at 12:20:<\/p>\n
Crooke: Iran doesn\u2019t have air dominance but instead of which they have created missile dominance overthe airspace um of the whole region and including Israel Um the damage to their missile capabilities has been grossly overstated by the old tactic of just counting, this goes back to Vietnam, counting air strikes. And one of the things that has been most notable in this period is before the war, Iran bought from China a huge number of decoys, decoy planes, decoy missiles. And one of the things um not only are they very effective in their appearance, but I didn\u2019t know until recently is they have a heat source in them. So they are hot. And so of course that shows up on the American sensors and the Israeli sensors as a real target, a real plane, a real missile um when it\u2019s really only a decoy.<\/p>\n
Crooke also describes how the underground missiles operate, the Iranian demand that GCC states expel major US corporations like Microsoft if they are to have a relationship with Iran, and Israel\u2019s objectives in Lebanon. <\/p>\n
On the economic front, those who depicted the latest strikes on Saudi pipelines as set to produce a marked cut in output for months look to have been wrong:<\/p>\n
BREAKING:<\/p>\n
\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\udde6 Saudi Arabia fully restores East-West oil pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and pumping 7,000,000 barrels per day.<\/p>\n
Saudi Arabia says it needs no more strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com\/qnIYu3pURG<\/p>\n
\u2014 World Affairs (@World_Affairs11) April 12, 2026<\/p>\n
Stanislav Krapinvik did say in a recent interview on The Duran that damage to the pipes proper could be repaired quickly, but that the destruction of a pumping station would be more serious. <\/p>\n
Now to the incursion of the US into the Strait of Hormuz. Recall that we pointed out yesterday that a New York Times story, based entirely on input from unnamed US officials, claimed that Iran had mined the Strait of Hormuz but had lost track of them and so could not clear them. So that article was pretextual.<\/p>\n
There is some dispute about what went down:<\/p>\n
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 \u2013 UNITED STATES \/ IRAN<\/p>\n
\u203c\ufe0f CENTCOM confirms the launch of a demining mission in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
\u27a1\ufe0f The American destroyers USS Frank E. Petersen (DDG-121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) have crossed the strait as part of this operation.<\/p>\n
\u27a1\ufe0f This mission aims to\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/0PHVgsxYPF<\/p>\n
\u2014 NEXUSx (@Nexus_osintx) April 11, 2026<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udea8\u26a1\ufe0f BREAKING: US warships cross Strait of Hormuz \u2014 then turn back<\/p>\n
US officials:<\/p>\n
“This was about freedom of navigation in international waters”<\/p>\n
“No coordination with Iran and no threats received”<\/p>\n
Iranian side:<\/p>\n
“Our forces monitored the destroyer and warned it via Pakistan” pic.twitter.com\/879nkoPJsV<\/p>\n
\u2014 RussiaNews \ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddfa (@mog_russEN) April 11, 2026<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udea8 BREAKING<\/p>\n
\u200bThe United States states that its destroyers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
\u200bIran releases a video from the Strait, stating: “Everyone is waiting for our decision.” pic.twitter.com\/Swfuq9z2Oe<\/p>\n
\u2014 GBX (@GBX_Press) April 11, 2026<\/p>\n
Senior Iran\u2019s Navy officer:<\/p>\n
\u2014 The destroyer that tried to enter the Strait of Hormuz today is an “Arleigh Burke” class, which is the most advanced American warship.<\/p>\n
\u2014 At the same time as the destroyer’s movement, Trump sent a message that the strait will soon be reopened, but\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/d0SHTaZi3S<\/p>\n
\u2014 Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) April 11, 2026<\/p>\n
Note that one thing that does seem to be agreed, that the US ships were destroyers, belies the pretense that this incursion was for mine clearing. The US mine sweepers are littoral combat ships, not destroyers.3<\/p>\n
Sal Mercogliano has been calling repeatedly for the US to send in naval carriers to force the Strait of Hormuz open, as if Iran now is the Iran of the tanker wars of the 1980s. He is also very orthodox\/MSM accepting in his views So his comments on a military matters, as opposed to commercial shipping, need to be taken with a fistful of salt:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
But after his discussion of the destroyer posturing, Mercogliano describes how Iran has been trying to change navigation patterns, to have commercial ships stop using their old route through the center of the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran has been successful in its herding. <\/p>\n
Keep in mind that per Tasnim in Hormuz Strait\u2019s Key in Iran\u2019s Possession: Velayati and other comments on Twitter, Iran maintains that it is still very much in control.<\/p>\n
More evidence of the US trying to cover up how badly it is faring:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Stopping here for now. See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n
_____<\/p>\n
1 From Marketwatch at Friday\u2019s close. This appears to anticipate that production and shipping will get back on their feet in perhaps three to six months but also a slowdown in activity. As we have reported, the price of actual barrels is much higher now than paper crude:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-2026-04-12-at-11.19.13%E2%80%AFAM.png\")
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.2 In passing, Henningsen compares Trump conduct to that of Pol Pot\u2026as has yours truly, regarding his war on elites. <\/p>\n
From the Navy Times in March:<\/p>\n
The U.S. Navy decommissioned half of its Avenger-class mine countermeasure ships last year and began replacing them with littoral combat ships that possess anti-mine capabilities.<\/p>\n
Per Wikipedia:<\/p>\n
A littoral combat ship (LCS) is a relatively small surface vessel designed for littoral warfare in near-shore operations. There are two LCS ship classes deployed by the United States Navy. The LCS was \u201cenvisioned to be a networked, agile, stealthy surface combatant capable of defeating anti-access and asymmetric threats in the littorals\u201d, although their ability to perform these missions in practice has been called into question.<\/p>\n
Littoral combat ships are comparable to corvettes found in other navies.[3][4] The Freedom class and the Independence class are the two LCS variants. Each is slightly smaller than the U.S. Navy\u2019s earlier Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate but larger than Cyclone-class patrol ships. Each has the capabilities of a small assault transport, including a flight deck and hangar for housing two SH-60 or MH-60 Seahawk helicopters, a stern ramp for operating small boats, and the cargo volume and payload to deliver a small assault force with fighting vehicles to a roll-on\/roll-off port facility. Standard armaments include Mk 110 57 mm guns and RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missiles. They are also equipped with autonomous air, surface, and underwater vehicles. Possessing lower air defense and surface warfare capabilities than destroyers, the LCS emphasizes speed, flexible mission modules, and a shallow draft. <\/p>\n
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